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The plebiscite is the general framework, and there is an urgent need on the part of the Palace to pass this milestone with blue numbers, since it is not only a historic day for the country, that need is also related to leaving behind the red numbers that they have accompanied this Government for more than a year and that derive in severe questioning of the political management of human rights followed by a very low approval of their management. Any major failure could turn into a “storm” that is very difficult to weather.
But this scenario that La Moneda has very clear, does not explain why the Government decided to walk this week on tiptoe, trying to avoid any kind of skirmish with the opposition, and always in a more friendly tone than usual. The other factor that closes the operation has to do with the real possibility that the constitutional accusation against the Minister of the Interior, Víctor Pérez, and the one that – they estimate in the Government – will be defined in large part at the time of the balance of public security after the plebiscite this Sunday.
The strategy throughout this week was always to avoid friction with the accusers and, at the same time, to avoid opening flanks that become reasons for unity for the opposition, an indecipherable sector at this point. Until now, experience indicates that the opposition unit has been achieved through a badly calculated move by the Executive, the most recent being the approval of the law that allowed the withdrawal of 10% of the savings of the AFPs and which resulted in a hard blow to the figure of President Piñera and, as a secondary effect, one of the most profound changes in the cabinet.
After the anniversary of October 18, which in terms of public safety ended with two churches burned in the center of Santiago – which implied pressure from sectors of the tougher right, such as that represented by José Antonio Kast, who asked the President stop observing what was happening and take action on the matter – Minister Víctor Pérez, while condemning the events, had a less harsh tone than usual, despite the fact that the scenario was conducive to deploying the zero tolerance strategy and thus regain the right-wing electorate that was lost during the outbreak.
In his speech, flanked by the two highest authorities of the Carabineros and the PDI, in addition to the undersecretary of the Interior, Francisco Galli, Pérez made much emphasis on separating the protesters from the violent, a communication drop that had been taking shape for several days, But not everyone was sure that it would be applied in a day where the news that was repeated incessantly on TV was the image of the two domes of the churches burning down.
But it was not like that, and sources from the Government House recognized it. The decibel drop of his intervention would have been directly related to the pertinent care, considering the risk of igniting the spirits of his accusers, who should vote on the constitutional accusation, which if not next week, will be the subsequent one.
As of today, the accounts –according to the Executive’s calculations– play in favor of the interests of the former UDI senator, but they are also aware that, beyond the Pyrenean work already deployed for weeks, added to the interpretation that make of the events related to public safety that may occur on this election day, “the ambient temperature” of the day you vote also plays a fundamental and almost uncontrollable factor, and that will depend a lot on the tone and the words used by the accused .
This is precisely the risk that is sought to reduce with a better deal with the “institutional” opposition, as the Palace that signed the Agreement for Peace and a new Constitution has been called by the Palace, and from where there are real possibilities of bringing positions closer to your favor. Mainly, and as it has become a tradition, among parliamentarians of the DC, the PR and the independents, among whom are Pepe Auth, Fernando Meza, Carlos Abel Jarpa and René Alinco, among others, and who have been functional in different instances.
To avoid the success of the initiative, La Moneda needs to remove six votes from the opposition, taking for granted that all the ruling party is square behind its minister.
But on the opposite side is the Christian Democrat deputy Gabriel Ascencio, who has made quite a lot of noise when it comes to making the calculations inside the Palace, because, unlike on other occasions, where the actions were led by sectors of the opposition with whom Palacio had already “thrown in the towel”, the fact that it is DC “could complicate things even more.” One of the reflections that have been made to be heard is that a signal of “rationality” is being delivered, unlike when the promoters of the accusation are part of those classified as “hot heads”, and that is a factor to bear in mind. consideration, they remarked in the Executive.
For his part, the former head of the Falangist bench has not given up in his attempt to create the right environment to obtain sufficient votes, and during the last week he has had interventions of the type “who is Víctor Pérez ?: he is the one who reiterates almost daily their support by acting as Carabineros every time they violate human rights. He is the one who points out that it is correct to supplant the identity of a citizen, to join groups that commit crimes, encouraging them to do them ”, implying that there is no going back.
In this way, and always in the context that it is also the week of the plebiscite, the Government spokesman himself, Jaime Bellolio, also “has lowered a change” in his interventions, which contrasts with what was sustained weeks ago, when He described the opposition sector as “pathetic”, reminding them of their “sad legacy”, in reference to the multiple and failed constitutional accusations that, with the recent one, now number nine. Now, instead, he has tempered the caliber of his words and also the tone, which is in line with the idea of not opening unnecessary flanks.
Another who made noise in the midst of all this deployment was the Minister of Health, Enrique Paris, who channeled his discharges for the demonstrations that occurred on Sunday, October 18, in the figure of the mayor of Recoleta, and the best positioned personer of the opposition for the presidential elections. , Daniel Jadue, by syndicating him as one of those responsible for an eventual outbreak in the pandemic.
An eventual successful constitutional indictment for the opposition would mean a serious defeat for La Moneda that would open deep flanks, such as the one that occurred when the former Interior Minister, Andrés Chadwick, was accused, being disqualified from holding public office for five years, which It dragged an internal battle with the UDI that saw its most influential figure in the Palace fall, accusing a fierce defense of the, at that time, Minister of the Segpres, Gonzalo Blumel, who would eventually become his successor.
In this sense, an eventual departure of Víctor Pérez would mark a new black page in the history of this bruised administration, which would lose its second chief of staff, breaking in passing the structural design of the political committee, which it was thought not to move until the end of the administration, and that aims to reverse the decline of the right-wing electorate with a “hawk” at the head.
A defense that opened flanks
With the faith that the environment of the potential triumph of the Approve option removes consciences within the opposition, and “decontaminates the environment”, it is that the defense of Minister Víctor Pérez was ahead of the facts and did not wait for the fatal deadline for the entry of his response to the accusation, which he sent to the Secretary of the Chamber, Miguel Landeros, at 11:19 p.m. on Thursday 22.
What no one from the legislative or political team of the Chief Executive’s chief of staff considered was that the argumentation of the same opened a series of flanks, both internal and external, and that they again exposed the figure of the President, who was not I would have consulted him on the strategy to follow.
The biggest problem was that the Ministry of Defense, led by Mario Desbordes, was directly referred to as the person responsible for the actions of the uniformed police, noting that under a State of Catastrophe, such as the one that remains in force in the country, Carabineros does not depend from the Ministry of the Interior, but from the heads of National Defense, dependent on the Defense portfolio.
This generated a meeting between the Head of State and the two ministers involved, who after the meeting had to go out to give explanations, which not even the ruling party itself described as satisfactory, since they did not take charge of the underlying problem, or how This problem will now be faced with two potential responsible ministers.
And if the main idea was to speed up the processing time, another of the secondary effects of the defense of the minister was precisely the opposite, since the deputy Jenny Álvarez (PS), a member of the review commission, asked to summon military leaders and Mario Desbordes himself, who must deliver his version of events next Tuesday at 4:00 p.m.
A situation that was not in anyone’s plans and that no profit drags for the Executive. During the last session, the two lawyers of Minister Pérez spoke, an instance in which they sought to clarify that what they wanted to expose in the brief was rather that, under the State of Catastrophe, the responsibility that falls to the Ministry of the Interior would be of a nature institutional, but not hierarchical, a response that would not have convinced many in the opposition.
For the Government, it was an own goal wherever you look at it.
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