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Alejandro Werner, Director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), put himself in all the scenarios when analyzing the debate on a new constitution that will probably be consolidated after the plebiscite of this Sunday, October 25 in our country .
Within the framework of the press conference on the economic prospects for Latin America and the Caribbean and consulted by PULSE , the economist poses as an upward risk that “This constitutional process opens the doors for Chile to continue being a leader in the region”.
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This is to the extent that with the construction of a new Magna Carta “Chile begins a new stage, in which the main elements that generated the Chilean success are maintained, in terms of the economic growth of the last decades; but that this is also complemented with a social coverage agenda, with more progressive public finances “.
Regarding the approach to social issues, Werner suggests that it should be pointed out that “the growth process of the Chilean economy is dynamic but more inclusive than it was previously”. To achieve this “balance”, it ensures that “We would have this positive risk scenario.”
However, in Chile’s commitment to drawing up a new constitution, downside risks are also involved. That would be the case if “The constituent process at the end of the day ends up opting for the establishment of a multiplicity of social policies without macroeconomic support”, argues Werner
Under that stage the process would move “Chile a little towards an economy where fiscal and financial risks are higher”, From which the country would move away from “being the model of stability and growth”, which in its opinion generated positive growth rates.
On the other hand, the IMF assured that in its perspectives that point to a contraction of 6% this year and a rebound of 4.5%, the risk surrounding the constitutional plebiscite is already incorporated. “The period that the post-plebiscite opens, it could be a period where the uncertainty margins gradually diminish ”, Werner states.
