[ad_1]
The team ICovid Chile, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its report number 18, document that warns that there is “signs of re-acceleration” of the coronavirus in the country.
The doctor Christopher Square, a doctor and academic from the School of Public Health of the U. de Chile and one of the authors of the report, explained that The Covid-19 epidemic presents “rising or consistently high contagion indicators in most regions of the country, particularly affecting the south-central and southern areas” of the national territory.
NEW CASES
According to the report, with information obtained up to December 6, at the national level there was a increase in new cases by around 8 percent compared to the previous week, while the regions that showed the greatest increase in this indicator are La Araucanía, Biobío and Coquimbo.
In the Metropolitan Region there was an average daily growth of 22.5 cases compared to the previous week, equivalent to a 7.4 percent increase in new cases. This effect is explained, particularly, by the dynamics of contagion in the province of Santiago.
“In the case of the Metropolitan Region, which has recently suffered a setback in the ‘Step by Step’ plan, an upward trend is observed, driven particularly by the situation in Greater Santiago and some Health Services such as the Central Metropolitan” explained Dr. Cuadrado.
TRANSMISSION
The transmission indicator (Effective R) stays with values over 1, with an increase from 1.04 to 1.05 in the last week at the country level, while at the regional level the highest medians are observed in Coquimbo (1.45), Aysén (1.24), Tarapacá (1.19), Valparaíso (1.19) and Antofagasta (1.16). In MRI, the R indicator is 1.11, practically maintaining its value compared to last week.
In turn, the burden indicator, which corresponds to the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants, changes from orange to red (10.1 for that week) nationwide after 4 weeks in a range of 5 to 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. “Magallanes remains the region with the highest load (22.1), although down compared to the previous week. They are followed by the Metropolitan Region (15.5), with a significant rise, Tarapacá (11.3; up) and Los Ríos (11.1; down). No region reaches a green value for this indicator “, is detailed in the report.
Before this panorama, Alejandro Jofré, Pro-rector of the University of Chile, detailed that “the R indicator remains around its previous values, prolonging the latent state of the pandemic. The regions of Ñuble, Los Ríos, Los Lagos and Magallanes continue to be concerned about their high load indicators and effective R. Traceability has been improving, although still slightly. “
Meanwhile, Guillermo Marshall, pro-rector of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, stressed that there is concern about the increases in infections that have been shown in various regions. “Coquimbo, Biobío and La Araucanía are the regions with the most worrying contagion indicators, and they are joined by Ñuble, Los Ríos, Los Lagos and Magallanes due to their high numbers of new cases,” he said.
TESTING
The positivity nationwide has remained stable at around 4.5 percent (yellow color), however, regional realities are heterogeneous. From the Maule region to the north, all regions are in yellow or green (less than 5 percent), and from Ñuble to the south much greater positivities are observed. The figures in La Araucanía (9.5 percent), Los Ríos (10.1 percent) and Magallanes (11.2 percent).
The indicator that shows the total number of tests carried out has remained stable at around 12 weekly tests per thousand inhabitants in the last three weeks. For samples from Active Case Search (BAC), the positivity nationwide in the last week is around 2 percent. On the contrary, the positivity for cases that do not come from BAC is much higher and close to 9 percent. The positivity in symptomatic patients nationwide was 13.7 percent, while in asymptomatic patients it was 1.9 percent in the last week.
TRACEABILITY
Refering to traceability, it is observed that the early confirmation indicator (percentage of cases in which the time between onset of symptoms and laboratory confirmation is at most three days) remained stable at the national level with a 46.2 percent (orange color) during the first weeks of November.
This figure is an improvement compared to the values of the end of September when it was around 30 percent, but it is still far from the threshold of 80 percent necessary to ensure a good capacity for isolation of cases and quarantine of contacts, the final objective of the traceability. When breaking down this indicator at the regional level, the worst situations are in La Araucanía and Los Lagos, which remain below 40 percent (red color).
In the early consultation indicator, the regions of Arica and Valparaíso stand out, where more than 70 percent of the cases consulted in 48 hours or less from the onset of symptoms. Regarding the response time of the laboratories, the values of Atacama and Los Lagos (both in red) are of concern with less than 40 percent of samples processed and reported to the health authority in 24 hours.
BED OCCUPATION
In this latest report there is a 86.2 percent occupancy of ICU beds at the national level, “slightly above the 85 percent threshold, which places it in red, with a slight increase compared to the previous weeks, and marking the sustained growth of the previous weeks,” the report explains. At the local level, ICU occupancy averages above 85 percent are reported in 6 regions.
“The percentage of use of ICU beds by COVID patients nationwide for the week analyzed is 32.2 percent, very similar to the previous weeks. Only the Araucanía region presents a proportion greater than 50 percent for the week analyzed “, explain the experts. This number, as noted in the previous report, seems acceptable in a nationally integrated ICU care system.
“Thus, the high ICU occupancy at the national level and in some regions seems to be the consequence of resuming elective interventions that had been postponed in the heightened periods of the pandemic,” the document stated.
