Harvard and his grim diagnosis: the presence of coronavirus will occur before 2024, and social distancing will be necessary until 2022

As the world tries to stop the coronavirus, The scientific race to find an answer and a possible cure continues on its hasty path. But while scientists struggle with this, some predictions make this desire even more necessary. Harvard University (USA) published a study in the journal Science on Tuesday showing that the presence of coronavirus on the planet could last until 2024, and that Social distancing may be necessary until 2022.

A group of scientists led by Stephen M. Kissler, Christina Tediyanto, Edward Goldstein, Jonathan H. Grad and Mark Lipsic conducted an imitation of the development of a pandemic in a computer system, which showed that coronavirus will be seasonal, like other pathologies, increase in the winter months.

“To understand the possibility of transmission, we used the statistical method to convert incidence data into an effective number of weekly reproductions, which is defined as the average number of infections caused by each sick person this week “About this Tediyanto said at a press conference.

Kissler, other researchers, explained that they included elements of analysis in a mechanistic model of disease transmission. “Obviously, the virus will continue to circulate like a seasonal winter virus,” he said.

“The changes during the season are due to the proportion of the population that is immune to the virus, as well as seasonal patterns that may be triggered by environmental or behavioral changes, “added Tediyanto.

A document issued by Harvard University explains that since treatment is not yet available (the vaccine is still under investigation) The actions of health authorities and governments were based mainly on establishing quarantine and social distances.

Dr. Carlos Perez, an infectious disease specialist at the Universidad de los Andes Clinic and Dean of the Faculty of Medicine and Science at the University of San Sebastian, considers the assessment of the study quite realistic, “since we are all potentially susceptible to infection with this virus. The world and our relationship have changed, and we must adapt. ”

Ignacio Silva, Infectious Disease University of Santiagoindicates that although coronaviruses have been in the world for many years, in particular Sars-CoV-2 is new to the population, and we do not have any type of immunity, “Then the virus probably circulates for a long time, until in the end everyone develops immunity against it, or until we have a vaccine, and it can take months or even years. In addition, we do not know how long this immunity will last, as we have seen with other respiratory viruses, such as the flu. ”

Annabella Arredondo, epidemiologist at the Institute of Public Health University of Andres Bellopoints to that Harvard’s work makes several assumptions, “for countries with seasonal changes, such as Chile, where seasonal flu outbreaks associated with winter occur annually. It is believed that Covid-19 has a very high permeability, higher than that of other human coronaviruses (SARS, MERS), but less lethal. They also suggest various scenarios regarding the duration of immunity after infection with Covid-19, which remains unknown due to the short course since the start of the epidemic. ”

“Social distance is a very important element. not to saturate emergency services, as people gradually become invulnerable, and that we also have further studies on the longevity of immunity, “adds Silva.

Assuming that there is no proven effective treatment to date and that vaccine availability will take a couple of years at best, “Social distance remains the only effective tool for leveling the curve by reducing permeability virus and thus avoid excessive mortality due to a lack of access to adequate care, ”explains Arredondo.

Now “We do not know what the temporary spread of this outbreak will be, and whether its transmission will actually be reduced at the end of winter, Chile decided on a different form than in other countries, as it indicated and abolished partial quarantines. It remains to be seen whether this mechanism will support the reductions achieved so far, ”says an epidemiologist at the Institute for Public Health at Andres Bello.

Dr. Ulises Rios, a psychiatrist and academic at the University of Andres Bello, believes that this will have consequences for mental health. “The type of symptoms and their intensity will most likely depend on vulnerability before a pandemic begins. Our ability to emotional regulation (longing, fear, anger, disappointment, etc.), empathy, thinking about our mental states and the condition of other people are processes that are experienced in such unfavorable situations as the current scene, ”notes he.

Silva adds that the main consequences of quarantine and social distance “lie in the psychological field of people, which means being away from loved ones, avoiding regular activities in the fresh air or relaxing, as well as in the economic sphere, where many people have to work, being very affected by this. “

Regarding the benefits that this pandemic can provide, “it seems to me that stopping always provides good opportunities for thought. Again, this will depend on previously developed skills. Some people may find themselves unstructured, leaving their usual routine, while others will be able to access new perspectives. to value new spaces of coexistence or aspiration for those who are still private, ”says Rios.

By reducing social activity and travel, “Pollution is reduced, infection with other viral diseases characteristic of winter, such as, for example, respiratory infections present in children, which are often observed in kindergartens or crowds of people, ”says the infectious disease specialist Usach.

“Therefore, we have (and should) develop the ability to adapt to this new state, to this new unfavorable environment: We can develop a vaccine, we can change our way of communicating, we will be able to change our social roles, our immune system will also be able to better and better respond to this new virus, etc., ”Rios points out.

“The panorama is uncertain, unfavorable at the moment, but the evolutionary process not only offers adverse conditions, it also generates organisms that adapt and find new forms of existence, and the latter can entail a positive and necessary turn for us, ”Rios adds.