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This Tuesday’s election in the United States between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden will be decided in a handful of states considered key. They are the only ones to which the candidates have gone, where the parties have invested all their money and in which the media spotlight is on. This is a guide to the key states for election night.
Why are key states key?
The American electoral system is based on a body of 538 delegates who are elected in the states based on their population, known as the Electoral College. The winning candidate in each state, even if it is by a single vote, takes all his delegates in his goal of reaching the magic number that will take him to the White House: 270.
Most states are decided before the elections either by the margins indicated by the polls or by their electoral history. This is the case in California for Democrats or Tennessee for Republicans. But the sum of the states decided by side and side does not reach 270.
This is where the key states come in, a select club of just a dozen that fluctuate election after election, although they are not always the same, in which the candidates dedicate all their efforts during the campaign and in which all eyes are on election night.
THE “DECIDED” STATES
But first of all, which ones have already been decided?
Democrats are considered to have cattle in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Vermont, and Maine.
For Republicans Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Louisiana, Alabama, the Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Arkansas, Alaska, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Utah, West Virginia, Montana, and Nebraska.
In total, Democratic states add 212 delegates and Republicans 125, so at first glance, Biden’s victory would seem easier, but it is not that simple.
THE “SWING STATES”
Now yes: the key states, called “swing states” in English:
Florida is the key state par excellence. In 2016 he voted for Trump, in 2008 and 2012 for Barack Obama, in 2004 and 2000 for George Bush Jr., in 1996 for Bill Clinton or in 1992 and 1988 for George Bush Sr. In 2000, in fact, after a recount that lasted weeks, he handed the White House over to Bush for about 500 votes.
Trump flees Washington whenever he can to Florida. It has the most right-wing Latin American migration and pensioners in search of the sun. The recounts – like Bush’s – are usually heart-stopping, with the winner taking 29 delegates, the big prize among key states.
- Pennsylvania / Michigan / Wisconsin
These three states they were life insurance for Democrats thanks to the urban African-American vote and the white working class. As of 2016, Wisconsin had voted Democratic in the previous seven presidential elections, while Michigan and Pennsylvania in six.
Trump, however, bet heavily in 2016 on all three (closing campaign in Michigan), he appealed to the rural vote and the white working class disillusioned by the closure of industries and won them by a derisory combined margin of 80,000 votes, adding a total of 46 delegates who paved his surprise way to the White House.
With characteristics similar to the previous three, although even more democratic if possible, Minnesota was the fourth state that Trump stood between eyebrows and conquered in 2016. Almost, but with Minnesota and its 10 delegates he could not.
Another state that Democrats narrowly saved was New Hampshire, where 94 percent of white and rural-weight voters are fertile ground for Trump, though he only delivers 4 delegates.
The other side of the coin. States that they seemed like guarantees to the republicans, but that demographic changes (a great migration from more progressive states combined with the mobilization of the youth and minority vote) do nothing outlandish that Democrats can get hold of them.
Arizona with its 11 delegates seems a fact, Georgia and its 16 is predicted as possible, while the almighty Texas and its 38 is still a dream for Biden or, if confirmed, a nightmare for Trump.
Although it leans to the right, North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 or Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 2016, he loosely opted for Trump, and an alliance between African Americans and moderate voters in favor of Biden would jeopardize his 15 presidential nominees.
More and more tinged with blueNevada has voted Democratic in five of the last seven White House elections. Although she is still considered a key state, she may soon leave this select club.
Is he usa thermometer. He has always voted for the winner in the last 14 presidential races. From Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to Trump in 2016. Although as the saying goes, the statistics are there to break them.
After fluctuating between the two parties for more than a century and when it seemed that the Democrats were tilting the scales on their side, Trump arrived and won Iowa by a 10-point margin in 2016. His farmers, however, are among the most affected by the trade war with China and that can take its toll on the president.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not give all their delegates to the most voted candidate, but rather divide them by districts. Maine is a Democrat, but its second rural district already voted for Trump in 2016. With Nebraska the opposite is true: there is no doubt that it is Republican, but the urban district of Omaha has voted Democratic in the past. They are only one umpire per district, but may decide the election if there is a (not so unlikely) tie at 269.
