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In Magallanes, a second wave is already alerted as much or more intense than the first, while in Valparaíso the burden rose from 9.8 to 14.9 infections per 100,000 inhabitants despite a three-month quarantine. At the national level there is “an appreciable probability that the capacity of ICU beds may be exceeded,” they warn.
Scientists that make up the ICOVID Chile team warned that the pandemic in practically the entire country remains with figures in the red: only Atacama managed to lower infections, but the regions of Valparaíso, Bío Bío and Magallanes are concerned about the burden and transmission of the virus .
Precisely this last area clearly shows how – with only four months away “A second wave can manifest as much or more intense than the first”, says the Fourth Report of the initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción.
The document provides a detailed analysis and data of the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Sunday, August 30, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge. and Innovation.
According to the data of this latest report, a sustained maintenance of community transmission of COVID-19 is observed, where each new case infects at least one other person, which causes the reproduction of the virus to continue.
The northern and extreme southern areas of the country are particularly concerned, which face a high volume of active cases and contacts that require follow-up, while the regions of Valparaíso, Bío Bío and Magallanes remain on alert regarding load and transmission indicators .
Eduardo Engel, member of ICOVID Chile, engineer and academic from the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Chile, explains that if “load and transmission indicators are analyzed together, it is observed that thirteen regions have both indicators in red ”.
“This shows a worrying level of new cases and a potentially high transmission of the virus, which means an appreciable probability that the capacity of ICU beds may be exceeded,” he warns.
Only Atacama low
Regarding the dynamics of contagions, the report shows that at the national level it is observed that the number of new cases has remained stable and in red during the last seven days (about 10 daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants).
At the regional level and compared to the previous report, most regions also keep their indicator on alert.
The situation in the regions of La Araucanía and Aysén has worsened, going from yellow to orange, as has the Metropolitan region, which went from orange to red. Likewise, an increase in the number of new cases is observed in the regions of Valparaíso, Ñuble, Los Ríos, Aysén and Magallanes.
“The only region that shows a decrease is Atacama”, is detailed in the report, which also raises an alert regarding the situation in Magallanes: “The region with the highest number of new cases during the last week, as in the week above, is Magallanes, with a daily average of 87.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, almost eight times the national average “.
Transmission: Valparaíso in the sights
Meanwhile, in terms of transmission, the effective R (number of people that each infected person infects on average) at the national level has remained stable during the last week, reaching 1.01 + – 0.21 on August 29 (last day available).
“As in the previous report, almost all regions have a worrying level of transmission (red color). The exception is Los Lagos, which went from red to orange, ”the report reads.
And it is added: “The regions of Arica and Parinacota, Valparaíso, La Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos and Aysén show an increase in their transmission indicator during the last week, which is interpreted as that the number of people that each infected person infects on average, has gone up “.
Mauricio Lima, researcher in population dynamics and academic at the UC Faculty of Biological Sciences, points out that although the general situation of the load indicator has improved in relation to recent months, especially in the Metropolitan region, “transmission it remains with values close to 1, and new outbreak events are likely ”.
“There are regions that are of concern, Bío Bío, Magallanes and Valparaíso among others. It is important to note that the situation has improved because the load is seen to drop from very high levels to high levels (but in the lower range), which has decompressed the hospital system. But in the face of an epidemic with this magnitude of expansion potential, a constant and proportional effort in containment is necessary ”.
– Mauricio Lima, UC researcher
The case of Valparaíso is particularly worrisome, with a burden that rose from 9.8 to 14.9 infections per 100,000 inhabitants between August 22 and 29 and an estimated R for August 29 of 1.23 + – 0.27, its value highest in more than three months.
Check the report
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