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When the second Social Thermometer (TS) carried out in November of last year asked about the intention to vote in the plebiscite – which at that time was contemplated for April 2020 – 89.8% of those surveyed indicated that they would . Today, almost a year after that survey, in the midst of a pandemic and a month after the plebiscite, the fourth version of the Social Thermometer showed that 82.5% of the people say they will go to vote; 84.3% of men versus 80.7% of women; and the age group over 60 is the least likely to do so.
Faced with the question referring to voting intention, two thirds of those surveyed (65.9%) indicated that they will do so by the option “I approve”, however, it is surprising that 21% do not know or do not answer what their option will be. In terms of gender, it is noted that more men than women will approve a new Constitution, although almost a quarter of those surveyed said they did not know or did not want to mention how they will vote.
The trend in favor of “approval” is the majority in all age groups, but as age increases, it is observed that “rejection” increases. Although it is expected that in the groups that identify with the political center and the left, the option “approve” will predominate and that among those located on the right of the political spectrum the option “reject” will dominate, it is striking that two out of five Right-wing voters would vote “approve.”
The Social Thermometer also asked what kind of body should write the new Constitution. While almost half prefer to vote for a Constitutional Convention – with more men than women who prefer this option, although 29.6% of them did not know or did not answer the question – almost a quarter of those surveyed (24.2%) did not define his answer. 57.1% of those surveyed up to 35 years of age leaned in favor of the Constitutional Convention, but the percentage drops to 45.1% in the following group that reaches 60 years and drops to 40% among those over 60 years .
Finally, the Constitutional Convention option prevails among those who are located on the left and in the center of the political spectrum (77.3 and 45%, respectively), while 44.4% of those who recognize themselves as being on the right choose in favor of the Mixed Convention.
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