Exit polls give MAS candidate the winner in Bolivian elections

One year after the failed general elections of 2019, which triggered the departure from power of Evo Morales, some 7.3 million Bolivians returned to the polls this Sunday to elect a president, vice president, 130 deputies and 36 senators. However, the drop-in delivery of the results overshadowed a quiet election day with high participation that contrasted with the tension experienced in the days prior to these crucial elections.

After nine hours of voting, the centers began to close at 5:00 p.m. “Starting at 5:00 p.m., the Electoral Tribunal begins the counting of votes abroad and at 6:00 p.m. the departmental rooms are installed to start the regional counting, at that same time the official counting system opens, these data are official and final ”, He stressed the president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), Salvador Romero.

But the first results did not arrive at 18.00 as promised. This led to the Acting President, Jeanine Áñez, to ask the Bolivians “Patience to wait for the results without generating violence.” “I assure you we will have credible results”he said in a message to the country after the voting centers closed.

For his part, Romero pointed out that “it was a complex choice at a delicate juncture in which it is convenient to underpin the certainty of the results.” The president of the TSE had previously said that the final result could be known between three and five days after the elections, but last night he did not give a deadline. The law contemplates seven days.

Thus, seven hours after the polls closed, only the 4.04% of the minutes. With 259,811 votes counted, the candidate of the centrist Citizen Community alliance, the former president Carlos Mesa, took the lead with 52.13% of the votes, followed by former Minister of Economy Luis Arce, standard-bearer of the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 32.12%, and Luis Fernando Camacho, from Creemos, with the 13.85%.

However, Exit polls by pollster CiesMori assure that Arce would have obtained 52.4% of the votes compared to Mesa’s 31.5%.

After the publication of this count, and without yet having official results, Jeanine Áñez congratulated Arce. “We do not yet have an official count, but from the data we have, Mr. Arce and Mr. (David) Choquehuanca (candidate for the vice presidency) have won the election. I congratulate the winners and ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind, ”he tweeted.

Bolivia “has recovered democracy, I want to say above all to the Bolivians, we have regained hope”, Arce said in turn, while Evo Morales assured that “MAS has won the elections widely, including the Chamber of Senators and Deputies. Bolivia has Arce as president ”.

The decision of the TSE in the hours before the vote to discard the rapid system of dissemination of the results, generated doubts mainly in Morales’ party, who made a call from Argentina – a country where he remains asylum after his departure from power – that the election result “be respected by all”.

Earlier, in the midst of the tense wait for the official results, Morales – who was unable to vote in these elections – had questioned the reasons why exit polls were not published after the closing of the polling stations and assured that “They are hiding the great triumph of the people represented by the MAS.” The ex-president considered that “It is very strange and worrying that, almost an hour from the time allowed for the publication of the data of the results at the exit of the exit, companies do not do it. Why the delay? What do you want to hide?

He also recalled that on Saturday they denounced the “Suspicious uprising” of the Preliminary Results Dissemination System (Direpre), “a few hours before the day of the elections.”

“It was not a wise decision, it raises doubt that (the quick count) was withdrawn hours before, but we are going to respect it”, Arce reacted, who came to the polls with a narrow lead in the polls. While, Carlos Mesa, who appeared second in the preferences in the polls prior to the elections, stated that perhaps it was not the best measure but that “To give more security to the vote, we must be patient to wait for the final results.”

An interruption of the quick count in the annulled elections of last October 20 due to suspicions of fraud triggered a social outbreak that led to 36 deaths and the resignation of Morales after almost 14 years in power. The fear of new street protests following the election results it has not faded in the country of 11.6 million, noted The Associated Press.

Faced with the uncertainty, analysts were cautious. The elections were close and “any result can occur” between Arce and Mesa, “even with a winner in the first round. The important thing is that everyone accepts the result “because” the people were exhausted from the political confrontation, “commented former congressman and analyst Jimena Costa to Panamericana radio. “Not knowing the results is the least desirable scenario because it could escalate the violence and we have already exhausted our option of a transitional government,” said the sociologist Maria Teresa Zegada to the same medium.

The elections must put an end to the transitional government of the right-wing Jeanine Áñez, who withdrew her candidacy after criticizing her management of the pandemic, with 8,500 deaths and 140,000 infections. At the same time, Bolivia is going through its deepest economic crisis in almost 40 years, with a expected contraction of GDP of 6.2% in 2020. Analysts predict a “fragile governance” in the next five years, since neither MAS nor Comunidad Ciudadana would achieve an absolute majority, so the future president would govern without controlling Parliament.

“People turned to the polls because they want to decongest this political crisis at once”, he told The Associated Press Franklin Couple, Professor of Political Science at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés de La Paz. “The October 18 elections would be the most important elections since the return to democracy (1982), because either Morales’ party follows or a process of dismantling Masista power begins,” said analyst Carlos Valverde, quoted by Reuters.