Electrifying end in the US: The six states that will define the tight Biden-Trump election

Until this morning, Democrat Joe Biden maintained the leadership in the Electoral College with 227 votes compared to 213 for Donald Trump. Although the Republican president declared himself the winner of the elections during the morning, in the last hours it has been confirmed that the votes by mail give the advantage to Biden in decisive states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.

Although it was known that these elections would be uncertain and that one of the possible scenarios was that there was no clear winner last night due to the record number of voters by mail, the race was not expected to be this close.

Although the polls gave a clear victory to Biden, Trump again gave a surprise. His controversial administration of the last four years and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic were thought to put him at a clear disadvantage against the Democratic candidate, but they did not.

With such a narrow difference between the two candidates, all eyes are on states that are still at stake, such as Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. These last three were also the most contested in the 2016 elections, the same ones that Trump finally obtained, which – to the surprise of many – allowed him to reach the White House.

During the morning, the count slightly favored Trump, who adds in his favor several important states, such as Florida – where Biden surpassed him by three points in the polls – Ohio and Iowa. The Democratic candidate, meanwhile, counts Arizona and Minnesota.

Although North Carolina and Georgia are still open and they could change their trend, the count in those areas so far favors the Republican president.

If the positions do not change and the trend continues, the 46 electoral votes from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania -all rural and industrial areas- would end up solving the election.

Then, both Trump and Biden would need at least two of those states to secure the presidency. Although they are often seen as blocs voting for the same candidate, generally the margins of victory are so narrow that a county or city can turn the entire state upside down. In fact, Trump reached the White House in 2016 thanks to 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania.

The result in key states could take hours, even days. In fact, Nevada election officials announced that the count will resume in their state tomorrow. Also, Pennsylvania and much of Michigan didn’t begin processing mail-in ballots until last night, so those results – which are expected to favor the Democratic candidate – could take days to become known.

If Georgia or North Carolina end up being Democrats, Biden would be closer to the presidency. In that case, you would still need to win one of the Midwest states. Instead, Trump needs to keep four of the five states he won in 2016 -Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia – to be reelected.

As the count proceeds, the theory that the Election outcome depends on whether Biden can restore the Democratic “blue wall” in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Although the Democratic candidate began the night with several open paths to achieve 270 electoral votes, this morning Trump had won Florida, Ohio and Texas, and was getting closer and closer to obtaining North Carolina.

Thus, Biden’s options were greatly reduced. His winning scenarios assume that Nevada wins, a blue state where the former vice president is ahead.

One option involves Biden winning in both Arizona and Georgia.. The Democrat is leading the way in the western state, and a win there would take a little weight off his shoulders. In this way, you could afford to lose Pennsylvania if Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin win.

On the other hand, he could also become president if he regains Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

For Trump, the road seems a little more complicated. His last chance to turn the election around is Nevada, which while it has been a tight-knit state this year, generally favors Democrats.

To lose it, Trump’s tenure depends on keeping the Great Lakes states -Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, among others- which he obtained in 2016, in addition to retaining Georgia.