Edmundo Paz Soldán: “Evo will not remain silent nor will he want a second position”

The Bolivian writer Edmundo Paz Soldán (Cochabamba, 1967), is one of those who think that it is not yet the time for Evo Morales to return to his country. This, despite the overwhelming electoral victory in the first round of the candidate of the Movement for Socialism (MAS), Luis Arce, in Sunday’s elections. “At this time, the MAS does not want Evo Morales to return, because he has a very belligerent and polarizing speech. He also has several pending cases with the justice system, which in Bolivia is never independent of politics, ”he says.

Paz Soldán -author of books such as Burned Palace and the Turing delusion-, participated on Tuesday in the cycle of LT conversations, aimed at subscribers of Third. During the interview, the Bolivian intellectual said that the revanchist strategy of the government of Jeanine Áñez ended up benefiting the MAS. And on the future role of the former Bolivian president, he was emphatic: “Evo is not going to want to remain silent, nor is he going to want to have a second or symbolic position. That is where Arce’s waist will depend. But I don’t think Arce will break up with Evo ”.

Polls projected that there would be a second round in Bolivia. However, Luis Arce won with 54%. What happened to the polls?

In the last polls there was something suspicious: 20% undecided, a very high percentage. Most of the pollsters thought that the MAS had its ceiling and that the majority of the undecided were going to opt for Carlos Mesa or Luis Fernando Camacho. That was the question. The election was analyzed as if it were that of 2019. But this year we have had two fundamental things: the pandemic, which has caused a very strong economic crisis in Bolivia, and on the other hand, a terrible management by Jeanine Áñez, with several cases of corruption in the case of mechanical fans. In addition, instead of making a government of unity and transition, his project was very revengeful with the people who supported Evo Morales. This revanchism caused, in part, that there was a hidden vote that supported the MAS but did not want to say so in the polls, because this year has been one of much instability and political persecution.

Precisely in a year of high tension, in which, as a result of the pandemic, the elections were suspended on two occasions.How much did Áñez’s management influence the triumph of Arce and the rearticulation of the MAS, which was very hit after the resignation of Evo in November 2019?

What it has helped has been on the issue of sociocultural identification. Because in the first weeks after taking over the Burned Palace, the Aymara flag was removed from military uniforms. Many cut their wiphala. And there were scenes in which the wiphala was offended, as if to say it’s over. It was a reactionary process, like forgetting the period of Evo Morales and his plurinational State, and going back to what existed before, when we had a unitary Republic. That is why the future vice president and former foreign minister David Choquehuanca was very important in uniting the vote of groups that had distanced themselves from Evo Morales. The reactionary attack by the Áñez government on the symbols that the MAS had implemented provoked a very strong ethnic-cultural counter-reaction. In addition, the persecution against some MAS leaders also allowed the mystique of a party with its leader in exile to be recovered in some way, of people who could not leave an embassy or who were in jail. That led to the unity of the MAS, while the right could not unite.

What was it that allowed Arce to win in the first round? What image did you cultivate in the campaign? Did he move away from Evo’s figure?

This victory is more than what Evo achieved a year ago, which indicates that many people had become disenchanted with Evo because he ignored the referendum (2016) that prevented him from running again. And if there is more than 50% support for Arce now, it is clearly that their support entered the urban middle classes, who have a great nostalgia or a positive view of Luis Arce, a technocrat who in the years of the economic boom -when Bolivia had an annual growth of 4% – was applauded by international organizations, not necessarily socialists, such as the IMF. Arce remained in the campaign in the shadow of Evo, he did not screw up and in fact, he has spoken of a unity government, of avoiding revanchisms, and that the MAS must recognize its mistakes. His opinion is much less belligerent than that of Evo Morales and I think that does not harm the pair.

How much did the pandemic determine, with a President who also wanted to be a candidate, although she finally deposed her candidacy?

The beginning of the end for Áñez was when he was encouraged to run, when he had some support. At that point she had a good amount of support, like 18%, just like Mesa. The fact that the elections were postponed, that helped the MAS and not the right. Áñez’s failure took its toll on Mesa and Camacho, not on Arce.

Is the vote obtained by Arce a validation of the figure of Evo or not necessarily?

There is a black zone between those who endorse and do not endorse electoral fraud (of 2019). With the entry of the military onto the scene, it was a broken constitutional process. Beyond the results, it is possible to think that there was some kind of interruption in the process that has to do with the idea of ​​some kind of coup.

What role could Evo Morales play in the Arce government?

At this time, the MAS does not want Evo Morales to return, because he has a very belligerent and polarizing speech. It also has several pending cases with the justice, which in Bolivia is never independent of politics. In a reasonable time we will have Evo back in Bolivia. But Evo is not going to want to remain silent, nor is he going to want to have a second or symbolic position. This is where Arce’s waist will depend.

As Minister of Economy, Arce was highly recognized. Is the growth that Bolivia had at that stage sustainable over time?

I think it is not sustainable and that is one thing that will take its toll on the new government, because the boom years coincided with the spectacular years of raw material prices. But that bonanza ended even before the pandemic, around 2016. The pandemic will force very complex decisions to be made.

Who could act as a counterweight to the new MAS government? Will it be Carlos Mesa or is his time over?

There will be two leaders: Camacho and Mesa. The problem is that Mesa is an institutionalist and therefore will be willing to reach a consensus with the MAS. But Camacho is different, because he has another type of leadership, a caudillista, limited to Santa Cruz and far from the Andean world. Camacho will be an annoying power to the Arce government.

How do you envision the future relationship between Chile and Bolivia, especially after the Hague ruling?

Unfortunately (the issue) Chile helps political demagogy from all sides in Bolivia. If a Bolivian politician wanted to talk about having a normal relationship with Chile, he would lose many points. Even after the Hague ruling, some sectors have asked to turn the page. One of those who has not assumed defeat is Evo Morales. So I don’t know if Arce is going to have enough pragmatism to distance himself. If Arce (takes distance) he will give the signal that he is independent of Evo. Or if it is encouraged to cut with Venezuela, for all the human rights abuses.

Could it be that Arce could end up as a kind of Lenin Moreno, the President of Ecuador who broke with Rafael Correa and also with Venezuela?

I doubt that it will reach that point, due to the harsher currents of the MAS. I don’t think Arce will break up with Evo.

Could Arce’s triumph mean that the left begins to regain ground lost after the continent turned to the right years ago?

The social inequalities that exist in Latin America and that continue to deepen, in addition to the pandemic, will allow the left parties to have an important presence. I would not be surprised if the crisis caused by the pandemic opens an interesting stage for the parties of the left. Next year the elections are coming in Brazil, where I don’t think Jair Bolsonaro will be rewarded for his management in the pandemic.