[ad_1]
A return to normal life as it was in early 2020 is still a long way off.
Even when the restrictions imposed to cope with the covid-19 pandemic are alleviated, the coronavirus will continue to affect our lives in many ways.
What will it be like before and what could change forever?
Twelve experts from the BBC share their analysis, in some cases focused on the European or British reality but easily extrapolated to other parts of the world.
From Zoom clients to WhatsApp groups, for many of us digital platforms have become the only way where we can work, get fit, educate ourselves and entertain ourselves. We are also more relaxed regarding the hours that we and our children spend in front of the screens.
Is about a great cultural change It only happened in a few weeks and seems unlikely to go away overnight.
We now know that, generally speaking, technology infrastructure can meet the challenge: There have been some disruptions, but broadband providers and mobile phone networks have managed to handle the large increase in traffic.
And in the future, with lines between home and work more blurred than ever, we will need think carefully about what platforms we will use and what do we say about them.
Still, video conferencing is, for now, the norm.
Remember that meme: “This meeting could have been an email”? maybe finally be close.
Retail was already having a hard time.
And quarantines, and their consequences, will accelerate the enormous structural changes that were already underway. Now it’s about survival of the fittest.
Businesses that are in good financial health and are able to give customers what they want will prosper.
However, the weaker players, who are already dealing with falling sales, rising costs, and intense competition, they will stay on the road for the next 18 months.
But there is a more immediate question: how many stores will reopen?
Some small businesses may run out of cash and end up closing. Other larger retailers will also be in trouble. Many others will analyze the profitability of their stores and others will consider returning the keys to the properties they occupy.
After closing, there will be an immediate rebound in sales and stores are likely to lower prices. But that bounce can be short-lived if people are unemployed and unable to spend.
Fashion relies heavily on shoppers for extra cash, and many of us have endured the past few weeks buying almost no clothing, and we survive!
It will be interesting to see if buyers reconsiderrán their habits and priorities.
Covid-19 is the biggest shock for companies in the last century.
The emergency measures imposed on reluctant companies will be part of the future analysis, forcing questions such as “do we need a large office space in the city with staff that depends on crowded public transport?”
The I work at home It could make rush or rush hour go down in history, which could affect property values in “commuter cities.”
Staff will also demand more from employers in terms of flexibility, facilities and safety at work.
Businesses can start accumulating cash to survive another crisis.
Just as banks became less profitable after the 2007-08 financial collapse, as they were forced to have more base capital before lending, post-covid-19 companies could be less inclined to invest. That will stifle growth.
Digital business transformation will be faster, with more automation and artificial intelligence to approve loans, profile customers, control inventory, and improve delivery.
Supply chains will be shorter, stronger and possibly more local, but that has advantages and disadvantages.
Economic nationalism – when governments try to protect their economies by cutting imports and investments from other nations, is popular right now – but some warn that it results in a selfish and harmful approach.
Finally, global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization and the European Union may face the challenge of improve their performance or disappear.
We all look forward to going back to business as always. But it will not happen.
Some airlines may not survive this crisis. Others may disappear soon after. And those that manage to overcome it will be weakened.
There will be, at least in the medium term, fewer flights. That trend will be driven by people and businesses that will have less money and by the rise of video conferencing.
And, after the pandemic, flying will also generate more nervousness, at least initially. Thermal imaging cameras, which take your temperature when you go through the controls, could turn from current use in airports and even at train stations to insure passengers and plant personnel.
A smaller aviation market means prices would go up. After being locked up at home for weeks, many of us will be eager to travel, but international travel by plane, train or ship will probably have to change.
For example, EasyJet says it is initially planning not to occupy the middle seats so that passengers are not so close to each other – and tickets for a plane with many empty seats. they will be more expensive.
The number of people on trains, subways and trams is likely to be less than pre-crisis levels, as some will continue to work from home.
The daily commute to and from work it is not the best thing to do to maintain social distancing and railway managers are looking for how to organize things when the government relaxes the restrictions.
Independent and eco-friendly modes of transportation, such as bicycles and motorized scooters, will become more popular, although some people will choose to drive.
The normal school day has its own rhythm set by lessons, bells, and recesses. Now more than 90% of the world’s children are not in the class, according to UNESCO. That interruption will have sequels for years.
Teaching has moved on-line, with virtual classes on a scale never seen before, but that has highlighted the concern that the digital poverty It is marginalizing some children: Even in developed economies, such as the UK, there is a significant minority who do not have immediate access to a device of their own that they can use for their homework.
OFCOM (the UK Communications Regulatory Authority) estimates that 59% of children aged 12-15 have their own tablet and 83% have their own smartphone.
However, some deprived teenagers in England have borrowed laptops to help them study at home, thanks to the assistance of the Department of Education.
This temporary solution, however, could end up being implemented in the long term, in what would be one of the legacies of this pandemic.
British universities face other challenges. They are globally connected and have been successful in publicizing the value of a British degree worldwide: 120,000 students came to the UK from Mainland China alone each year.
That figure, however, will drop, as will the numbers in other countries. The desire to study away from family will not be as strong as before.
Research by the UK College and University Union (UCU) indicates that the combination of the immediate drop in attendance by international students this year and the decision by British students to postpone or not even enroll in university could cost women institutions about US $ 3,130 million and result in the loss of 30,000 jobs.
Clean air and quiet roads: In the gloomiest of circumstances, the confinement imposed by the coronavirus gives us a sense of what a greener world would look like.
Nitrogen dioxide levels, which are linked to a wide range of respiratory conditions, fell in China and Europe as vehicular traffic declined. And the rise of online meetings has shown what can be accomplished without having to travel, and that, in turn, has been very carbon-intensive.
The big question is than happenedwas then.
One possible scenario is for the world to return to rampant consumption of fossil fuels, as it did after the banking crisis, unleashing pent-up demand for oil and coal. Governments are well aware of this response as a method to revive their declining economies.
Another option is to make a more sustainable recovery, with policies that promote a low-carbon future. This would imply determined impulses towards renewable energy, public transport and energy efficiency in homes.
Visit our special coverage
This year was supposed to be important to try to stop the damage we are causing to the nature and to reduce gases that generate dangerous levels of temperature. That agenda, and the difficult decisions involved in making, may not be receiving much attention, but it has not disappeared.
In fact, the pandemic has shown us how governments can act when necessary, as well as the will with which the people can respond.
The question is whether a similar push can be directed towards what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls the “deepest emergency” in the environment.
The famous phrase is from legendary Liverpool manager Bill Shankly: “Some people think football is a matter of life and death … it is much, much more important than that.”
I was kidding, of course, but now, more than ever, the relevance of football has been left in perspective.
At the same time, sports are a serious pleasure for many. They support an industry that employs hundreds of thousands and has been hit like never before.
Sports events have fallen like dominoes. Some, like the Olympics, have been postponed, while others, like Wimbledon, have been canceled entirely. Training programs are in tatters and staff are laid off. Players have received cut wages and broadcast media warn loss of hundreds of millions.
In the future, social distancing will be a huge headache for the institutions that govern sports. How can physical contact sports such as rugby continue? Even playing games behind closed doors presents innumerable problems.
An English Premier League season without a champion was unthinkable, but the championship is now on the tightrope. If sports can be reactivated this year, the global recession that is likely to come upon us will surely affect the industry for years, especially in the areas of transfer payments, wages, retransmission agreements and cash prizes.
For millions of fans, weekends are now very different. Moments of incredible effort and sports talent used to resonate throughout the territory, providing collective expressions of “did you see that?”
Without those moments and the fans who live them, the future of sports looks very different.
The art union is divided equally as to its future after the pandemic, between optimists and pessimists.
Upbeat half thinks UK art scene it will bounce harder than before, offering to an expectant population the longed for shared experiences and joyful content.
Movie theaters, theaters, concert halls, museums and galleries will flourish with a flourishing of creativity, in response to the dark days of the virus.
Also, there will be new converts who discovered all this splendid free art content that was available during confinement.
Pessimists fear that small grassroots art centers – historical sources of talent – will disappear in a new era of austere budgets. Local councils will have to sell their artwork and thousands of jobs will be lost. A sector that was previously known for its dynamics and imagination will become conservative and reluctant to take risks.
I suspect that reality will fall between these two visions. The post-confinement transition from moving from closed to bustling rooms will not be immediate. Social distancing will probably limit activity. Producers will need time to rehearse and refine their shows. There will also be limits on the size of technical film and television teams producing new content. Programming replays will be on the menu for some time.
But let’s not forget that the UK’s creative industries have long been strong economic engines. They are recognized throughout the world and are full of individual talent. It will be very difficult, but I bet the art and entertainment sector will not only keep us entertained and intellectually stimulating, but will lead as a spearhead.
It is generally accepted that the experience of living during the 1930s depression and World War II forged the so-called Grandiose Generation – a group of Britons recognized for their resilience, prudence, humility, work ethic, and sense of duty.
Those are the qualities that the people recognizes in the Queen Isabel II and on the centennial Captain Tom Moore, who marched over and over in his garden to raise money for the National Health Service (NHS).
The traditional Thursday applause for key workers is expected to be the sound of a nation rediscovering itself and that, without the luxury of complacency, we have opened our eyes to what really matters. Confinement is said to have unleashed an emanation of good neighborliness that will flow long after the order is lifted.
Maybe.
Our life suspended in confinement, however, could be incubating a complaint that, when released, could unleash vigorous questions, accusatory fingers, and demands for retaliation.
Economic difficulties will put pressure on social ties. That is the real test for this generation – not if “can we keep our genius in confinement?” But “can we quietly repair the social fabric in difficult times?”
The fear is that our norms of behavior will have been infected by anguish and adversity, that we will emerge more selfish and less united.
The hope must be that our society, like a virus, is mutating into something stronger.
“This pandemic has focused the attention on the ignored and subvalortwo nooks and crannies of our society“
The words are from the director of the World Health Organization in Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge, when he described the shocking death toll in nursing homes on the continent.
Their feelings will resonate with many who have constantly warned of the care crisis looming over the UK, particularly in England. A population aging and years of low financing have left the sector prostrate.
Many of the staff caring for the elderly and disabled – in nursing homes and in the community – will say that they felt forgotten when the pandemic started. The focus on the health system was not surprising, but they were caring in particular for those who were vulnerable to the virus.
The difficulties of finding personal protective equipment and the slowness of carrying out tests on the community in England have become symptoms of their anxieties. The apparent failure to give priority support to the front lines of care and all the lives that could have taken will be questioned.
Then we will have to make a decision. ¿We will appropriately recognize, value and fund an integrated system What provides community support? Or, as our memories fade, will we again allow the importance of this kind of care to be lost in the background?
Before covid-19 claimed its first victim, the trade war between China and the USA. it threatened the progress of globalization. International supply chains bring advantages – more options, lower prices and, for some, higher incomes – but they also generate unemployment in Western countries with higher wages.
This pandemic it has exposed other vulnerabilities.
Three countries – the US, China and Germany – are depended on to supply 40% of personal protective equipment and there are also businesses that rely on single sources for vital components.
There will be a retraining about which products will be considered “strategic”, keys to the survival of a nation. They could be produced closer to home or find an alternative supplier.
But the key to recovery will be to create jobs and keep living costs low. The first means that, even if it bothers them, Governments will have to tolerate China’s continued investment around the world.
As for the latter, companies need to keep their costs low, so external manufacturing will continue to supply. Some of the biggest brands, including H&M (a Swedish garment multinational), have pledged to support workers in factories thousands of miles away to keep the supply chain running.
Those companies were already looking beyond China to other cheap labor countries like Vietnam, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. And these countries They will try even harder to attract foreign customers.
Chinese plants are coming back online, but who is buying? Currently, the demand for clients in confinement has fallen. Trade could be reduced by a third this year. But it will rebound, globalization will continue – and competition to become the world’s production line will intensify.
The catastrophe inevitably generates new priorities, even if the old geopolitical tensions continue. The pandemic has shown, once again, that global issues require global solutions.
It has also shown that The first reactions of governments have been national. China and the United States have bared their teeth about Beijing’s responsibility for the pandemic, nations have closed their borders and there has been unseemly competition for medical resources.
Multilateral organizations have done poorly. The EU apologized to Italy for not giving it enough support, and President Trump attacked the World Health Organization for being too close to Beijing. Those who consider these foundations of the world order to be out of fashion, they have more ammunition.
Beijing’s position is contradictory. It is the source of the virus and also the global provider of much of the equipment to combat it, so you can expect the “China problem” be an object of attention of governments in the West.
How can they be less dependent on Chinese goods and resist Beijing’s efforts to impose its rules on the world while seeking cooperation on issues like climate change and, yes, future pandemics?
There will be a lot less money in military budgets for shiny new weapons, after redefining security due to the extraordinary weakness revealed by the pandemic.
The capacity of national security will be judged by the provision of medical equipment and the preparation for the next pandemic or environmental catastrophe, not only by how many tank brigades can move.
Now you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate them to not miss our best content.
IT MAY INTEREST YOU
[ad_2]
