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The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its sixth report with analysis and data of the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Sunday, September 13, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
According to the data in this latest report, coronavirus cases continue to increase in Chile, with particularly strong outbreaks on the rise in the north and in several southern regions. The dynamics of contagion reveals a clear increase in the regions of Atacama, Maule, La Araucanía, Los Ríos and Magallanes, where both the load and transmission rates reach very high levels. While, hospital occupation at the national level slightly increased to 78%, with regions with a very high occupation such as Atacama, Coquimbo, Biobío and Magallanes, showing situations out of control.
The positivity, meanwhile, persists around 6% national, but with important variations between regions, increasing by Magallanes, O’Higgins, Maule, Los Ríos and La Araucanía during the last week.
For William Marshall, pro-rector of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, “the situation of the pandemic in the country continues to be critical and with very different dynamics in the different regions. While in the Metropolitan Region the burden of new infections and transmission remain high, but contained, some regions in the north and south of the country, they present very worrying sources of contagion, similar to those observed at the beginning of May in Santiago ”.
While, Alejandro Jofré, Pro-rector of the University of Chile, emphasized that “the pandemic continues to grow, with a high point in the north and several in the south, which is very worrying since, in addition, the load and the speed of contagion remain at critical levels (red). This sets up a state and dynamics that can trigger outbreaks in various regions. The way out of this dormant state of sprouts is to substantially improve traceability. In this sense, ICOVID generated two new traceability indicators, which aims to better explain the situation and give a clearer signal to decision makers ”.
In this sixth report two indicators are introduced to the dimension of traceability and isolation, which disaggregate the previous indicator and account for the early confirmation of cases and early consultation. “Both are especially important for the current moment of the pandemic. Indeed, traceability persists far from the goals, at a level close to the most dangerous threshold, with a low proportion of people consulting early for their symptoms, ”the researchers point out.
In this regard, they will now be three indicators with information that will seek to contribute to describe the speed and coverage of different milestones in the testing, isolation and traceability. The indicator of early confirmation of cases, which refers to the proportion of suspected symptomatic persons whose PCR test laboratory result is reported to the health authority (through the Epivigila system) within three days from the date of symptom onset. The early consultation indicator, which refers to the proportion of suspicious symptomatic people who consult and whom the doctor notified (entered the Epivigila registry) within 2 days from the date their symptoms began. And, finally, the laboratory and examination time indicator, which shows the proportion of PCR examinations whose result is reported within one day of notification as a suspected case in Epivigila.
In this dimension, the indicator of early confirmation of cases – an indicator that today has information available only until August 22 – has been improving gradually from May to date, rising from 10% to 40% at the end of August, but still at a level close to the most dangerous threshold (orange color). The goal for this indicator is to reach 80% coverage. “Important variations are observed between regions, in the range of 30% to 50%. These levels of variability give an indication that it is possible to improve traceability in different areas of the country, ”the report reads.
Meanwhile, the proportion of people who consult early (within two days) – an indicator that today has information available until September 2 – has been improving steadily in recent weeks, however at a slow pace, which explains that still only 53% of the consultations occur early, with 80% being the goal. The situation is quite similar for this indicator throughout the country, with the exception of La Araucanía in which 37% of the people consult early (indicator in red) with the latest information available.
Finally, at the indicator exam and lab time, -indicator that today has information available until August 29- the report indicates that 55% of the results of PCR tests are reported within a day of the medical consultation, remaining in orange color since the end of June. During the last week this indicator has deteriorated, which should be observed carefully since it could be indicating a slowdown in the examination and laboratory time in the country. Atacama, Coquimbo, La Araucanía and Los Lagos are the regions that are of greatest concern in relation to this indicator, all in red.
In contagion dynamicsAt the national level, the number of new cases has increased from 10.95 to 12.04 per 100,000 inhabitants (weekly average). “Thus, this load indicator remains red (out of control), like last week, but reaches higher levels and similar to those of the first days of May during the rising phase of the first wave of the pandemic”, It is noted in the report.
“At the regional level, meanwhile, the indicator reaches red levels in all regions. In particular, the situation in the regions of Arica and Parinacota which is still very high (24.3), in Atacama which continues to rise (23.9), the Maule with a significant increase (21.4), as did Ñuble (19,9) and above all, Magellan (124.7) ”, says the report.
On the other hand, “the transmission indicator (R) remains above threshold 1 at the national level, reaching an average value of 1.04 during the week. At the regional level, all regions keep a red transmission indicator in the last available measurement. The average transmission levels are particularly high in the regions of Aysén (1.87), Los Ríos (1.48), La Araucanía (1.15), Maule (1.23) and Atacama (1.16) “, reports the sixth report of the ICOVID Chile team.
As to testing, the report indicates that the positivity of the test at the country level remains at a similar value to previous weeks, with 6% of the tests carried out with a positive result. However, “there are regions where the indicator is worsening, such as the regions of Maule and Magallanes that increase your positivity weekly; from 0.7% to 1.5% in Aysén; from 4.9 to 6.4% in The Araucanía; 3.8% to 6% in The rivers; from 7.9% to 9% in Maule; from 8.5% to 10% in O’Higgins; and from 24.5% to 26.6% in Magellan. For the rest of the regions, the positivity is stable or down in the last week. The reductions in PCR positivity are maintained in the northern regions as Tarapacá, Antofagasta, Atacama and Coquimbo”, Emphasizes the report.
Meanwhile, the testing capacity at the national level remains good, with 10.6 tests per thousand weekly average inhabitants. “It should be noted that from September 9, for the first time there is a drop in successive days in the number of tests, after almost 2 months of constant high. The most important reductions are observed in the regions of Coquimbo, O’Higgins and Magallanes”, The researchers explain.
For Cristóbal Cuadrado, academic at the School of Public Health of the University of Chile, “The epidemic situation of the country is far from a controlled situation. More than six months after the start of the pandemic, we have not achieved an effective suppression of community viral circulation in any region of the country, with a high burden of infected people throughout the national territory. The traceability strategy continues to show deficiencies in identifying symptomatic cases and their contacts early, which is why a consistent message from the authority is urgently required for an early consultation regarding symptoms. And, on the other hand, it is necessary to review the enormous variability in the times it takes to receive a test result in the different regions of the country ”.
“Finally, it is worth mentioning that an epidemiological scenario like this one transforms national holidays into a time of high risk for outbreaks, so the call to citizens should be not to hold meetings, minimize contacts and not relax distancing measures physical, use of masks and hand washing, ”added Cuadrado.
Finally, as for hospital capacity, the report reports an increase in hospital occupancy nationwide, reaching 78%, with regions with a very high occupation indicating a situation out of control in Antofagasta, Coquimbo, BioBío and Magallanes.
While, the use of ICU beds by patients with COVID-19 is 65% nationwide, showing a slight improvement over last week. In the Metropolitan Region, occupancy has remained stable at 48%, while the Coquimbo region presents a critical occupation, out of control, and Tarapacá Alta with 76% occupancy, according to the researchers.
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