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The design from La Moneda and Chile Vamos for the post-bishop scenario was always to bet on the letter of the sector’s unity, since supposedly –and in counterpoint to the opposition– the differences on the right would end on October 25 and everyone would row to the same side as regards the contents of a new Constitution. But the devastating defeat of the Rejection, with its squalid 22%, installed a deep dilemma on the right that they will hardly be able to continue covering up and that involves understanding or not the scenario in which the country finds itself: that everything changed and it is necessary to give in certain principles, or continue to “hold the keel” at whatever cost.
There are two scenes that perfectly depict this deep debate that Chile Vamos is facing. On the one hand, the disjointed faces of a small group of leaders and parliamentarians who were on Sunday – after the counts – in command of the Rejection and, on the other, the cheers and applause with which Defense Minister Mario Desbordes was received, when he arrived that same night at a capital hotel where Renovación Nacional met, a place that was all smiles and hugs.
It is that Desbordes was not only one of the key protagonists of the agreement of November 15, in which the entire constituent route was drawn, but, since then and until he entered the cabinet in July, he led and marked the mark of a right different, one that takes a good look at what is happening in the country, grounded in reality, oblivious to the defense of the privileges of the elite, most of the time contrary to the guidelines that La Moneda has tried to mark, and that understands that the slogan is to agree and give in if necessary.
The day after the plebiscite and beyond the string of public meetings scheduled to give an image of unity, internally in Chile Vamos began the analysis of the real scenario they are facing. Not a few in the ruling party these days have said, privately, that the problem that unleashed the 22% who obtained the Rejection is that they verified that the vision of Desbordes was the correct one, that it was the elite of Chile Vamos who resisted his political line, but not an important part of the electorate itself, which effectively tunes in with this sector of the ruling party that promoted the Approval and the Constitutional Convention, since no one can maintain that 78% of the 7 million 500 thousand people who voted are all opposition.
That is why these days, in sectors of Chile Vamos, it is affirmed that the results of Sunday night revealed two great truths: the first, that those who insisted by all means on making believe that the postulates and speech of the traditional right were shared by the majority of its voters; and the second, that without a doubt the gravitational axis of the coalition would have changed direction.
This is one of the theses that have been seeking to install from the most liberal sector of the right, a coalition that considers as a differentiating factor being more open to dialogue, mainly with the opposition, instead of seeking to defend strictly what for some in Chile Vamos are the values and immovable principles of the traditional right. The struggle between the economist and social right came from before, the fracture was created after the social outbreak of last year, but it deepened more during the pandemic, and now, after the plebiscite, it has been exposed and expressed in votes.
“The most recalcitrant right does not understand that it is necessary to agree, that it is necessary to advance in reforms, that it is necessary to give in, not the discourse of the principles and maintain the keel, but to have a republican vision, at the height of the moment,” declared a historical RN.
There are few who think and say that this is the moment for Desbordes to leave the cabinet. “If he is intelligent, he should leave the government now, to take control of RN and, above all, lead the process of putting together the lists of constituents with moderate people, which reflects this modern right,” they insisted on the party.
Although in media terms there is already talk once more of a possible presidential candidacy, the real discussion in RN is another: that the ex-monel is the only one capable of capitalizing for the sector on the scenario that drew the result of the plebiscite, strengthening his political line and counterpoint with the more conservative wing of Chile Vamos. “Like it or not, the winners on the right were those who were with the Approval and the Constitutional Convention and that is the discourse that should prevail,” they affirmed in National Renovation.
The problem in Chile Vamos is precisely that not everyone sees and understands it that way. After the result of the plebiscite, the president of the UDI, Jacqueline van Rysselberghe said that “there is a categorical triumph of the Approval that immediately calls us to work to elect the best constituents and represent 22.5% of the Rejection (…) . If we represent 22.5% of Chile, it is a good representation that our party has in the country ”. Along the same lines, the leader of the Republican Party, José Antonio Kast, added that “39% of Chileans who can vote supported the new Constitution. There are 49% who are still asleep and we have to wake up ”.
The ghost of the two lists
The spirits on the right are tense and the atmosphere is full of recriminations. In the world of Rejection there is little self-criticism, less understanding of the real scenario of the country, since these days they have insisted that 22% could be the result of a communication deficit of the campaign and the inability they would have had to mobilize their electorate. There has been no lack of accusations against their coalition peers that were played for the Approval, whom they blame for defameing them, confusing the right-wing electorate and, above all, “playing the opposition’s game.”
A look that from the other side of the road on the right is considered cloudy, wrong and totally out of focus from reality. Not only that, in the more liberal sector they spoke of a lack of political flair, of having dragged La Moneda into it, and of the erratic campaign of terror that they deployed. “The result of Sunday was a bath of reality (…). The mistake was to believe and stay in the bubble of social networks,” they insisted on the right.
But, beyond the crossed accusations, in the background there is a not minor fight. Several of the diagnoses in Chile Vamos agree that it will be necessary – with a view to the Constitutional Convention – that many of the faces of the Rejection “take root”, go to the background, to enhance the possibility of electing constituents of the sector. “Today being in the photo with Diego Schalper or Allamand is not business”, they sentenced in the ruling party, while others added that today “the speech of Coloma and Cubillos is very unattractive, they cannot have a leading role.”
That, in the eyes of several who believe that the best opportunity for Chile Vamos is to play for a list of constituents with several of them independent, not the same as always, but also in line with the moderate right. “Fanatical people do not serve,” warned an RN.
This creates a problem for Chile Vamos, the real possibility that differences will prevent them from going to the election of constituents on April 11 with a single list, to try to amplify their representation in the Convention.
Precisely one of the factors that makes noise at this point is the dilemma regarding whether or not to agree with the Republican Party of Kast, due to the consequences that that would entail. One, they warned in the ruling party, is the rightward movement towards the end of the conglomerate, which goes in the opposite line to the signal that the polls gave on Sunday, and the other, is that they do not integrate them, under whatever type of pact, It implies competing with at least two lists, repeating the fragmentation of its forces that the opposition would incur and that would be what gives Chile greater opportunities. We are going to win more seats in the convention.
So far the only party that has bid to work together with the Kast community has been the UDI, but its attack has not found an echo either among its peers in Evópoli and RN, nor in the PRI. And although this discussion had been taking place since before the plebiscite, the result of the same – assured from RN – raised a wall between one sector and another “almost impossible to break down.”
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