Bolsonaro: The perfect storm that hits Planalto

Brazil is shaping up to be the possible new red spot for the coronavirus pandemic, experts say. This has forced President Jair Bolsonaro to moderate his expressions, after he initially described her as just a “flu”. Although he now speaks of a “great enemy” that represents “the greatest challenge of our generation,” the President insists that there is no need to impose the severe measures that have slowed down the spread of the infection in other countries. Thus, as the numbers of infected and dead increase dramatically, exacerbating the health crisis, so does the political crisis that has once again installed the phantom of impeachment in the Planalto Palace.

“Here we have all the conditions for the pandemic to become much more serious,” Paulo Brandão, a virologist at the University of Sao Paulo (USP), told The Associated Press. Brazil ranks tenth among the countries with the most cases of Covid- 19, with more than 91,500 infections. However, an investigation by the USP itself indicates that there would be around 1.2 million people infected. In addition, this week it also surpassed China in the number of deaths, with more than 6,300 deaths. In this sense, Ivan França Junior, professor at the USP School of Public Health, told La Tercera that “the existing data is clearly underestimated.” Citing one of the scenarios simulated by his university colleagues, the health doctor warns that “ we can reach more than 110 thousand dead. “The health crisis could flare up now that the country is entering winter, which can worsen respiratory diseases.” I think (the peak of contagion s) it will be in May ”, commented the expert.

In the midst of this scenario, former Health Ministers during the governments of Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff denounced Bolsonaro before the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, for her actions against the pandemic, according to Folha de S. Paulo. The complainants accuse the ruler of “violating the human right to health and life and of potential genocide”, for not complying with the recommendations of the national health authorities and the WHO. “Bolsonaro is without a doubt the most lethal factor for the crisis that Brazil is experiencing,” Alexandre Padilha, one of the former ministers who filed the complaint, told La Tercera. “Bolsonaro opposes measures such as quarantine because he never placed life and the defense of life as the central theme of his government and society project,” he said.

One of the most recent episodes, where Bolsonaro ignored the pandemic, was recorded on April 19, when the President, without gloves, without a mask and coughing a couple of times, participated in a demonstration calling for military intervention and the closure of Congress. Breaking the quarantine, dozens of sympathizers gathered outside the Army Headquarters in Brasilia to listen to the president’s speech on the occasion of Army Day in that country.

In March, when Brazil only added five deaths confirmed by Covid-19, 64% of Brazilians already rejected the government’s plan to combat the coronavirus, according to a survey by the Political Atlas. In the midst of this scenario, Bolsonaro decided to dismiss the popular Health Minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, on April 16, after weeks of confrontation over the policy to combat the pandemic. And, in light of the figures, the bad evaluation of the plan against the Covid-19 was not so related to Mandetta’s management. Thus, at least a survey by this consultancy revealed it, according to which 64% of Brazilians viewed their work as head of the ministry as positive, while 76% rejected their resignation.

A week after Mandetta’s controversial departure, Bolsonaro was now faced with the resignation of his superminister of Justice and Public Security and a symbol of the fight against corruption, Sérgio Moro. The former star judge of Operation Lava Jato, who jailed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, left the government upset by the president’s decision to change the head of the Federal Police (PF), Maurício Valeixo. Moro accused Bolsonaro of “political interference”. According to the former judge, the President requested information about ongoing investigations, threatening the corporation’s autonomy.

This Monday the minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Celso de Mello, authorized the opening of an investigation into the accusations that Moro made against Bolsonaro. The magistrate responded to a request by the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, who requested authorization from the Supreme Court to investigate the report of the former Minister of Justice. According to a Datafolha survey, 52% of Brazilians believe in Moro’s version and 56% believe that Bolsonaro wanted to interfere politically with the Federal Police. “I can’t admit that he calls me a public liar. He (Bolsonaro) knows who is telling the truth, “Moro told Veja magazine.

“There are important investigations that can affect closely related people, very close to the President, and Bolsonaro surely wanted someone of his utmost confidence to direct the Federal Police at this time,” Paulo Afonso Velasco Júnior, a political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. In this regard, the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo recalled that Bolsonaro’s children are the target of investigations on issues ranging from their links with militias in Rio to the spread of fake news against political opponents.

For the columnist from Brazil / 247, Tereza Cruvinel, “from these investigations the crime of responsibility could arise to support the impeachment” against Bolsonaro. “He committed more crimes of responsibility when trying to force the change of the command of the Federal Police to shield himself, to control the investigations,” he told La Tercera.

But a Datafolha poll shows that Brazilians are divided on the advisability of a impeachment process against Bolsonaro. 45% want the Chamber of Deputies to open an impeachment process against the President, while 48% oppose the measure. In contrast, the Political Atlas survey reveals for the first time that a majority supports this option: 54.1% against 36.6%.

Support for Bolsonaro’s eventual resignation, meanwhile, grew in relation to the Datafolha survey carried out in early April. On that occasion, 59% of the respondents said that they were against this possibility. Now, it is 50%, almost tied with 46% that does support the resignation of the President. At the beginning of the month, 37% opted for the latter option.

After Moro’s resignation, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso asked for Bolsonaro’s departure. “It is time to talk. The President is digging his grave. Let him quit before being quit. Save us, in addition to the coronavirus, from having a long process of impeachment, ”he wrote on Twitter.

And it is that the Moro factor has exacerbated the political crisis in Planalto. Bolsonaro had already experienced a drop in his government’s approval since February due to his erratic behavior during the coronavirus crisis and the low economic performance in that period, but the resignation of the Minister of Justice directly affected his political capital: 64.4% He replied that he disapproves of the President’s performance, while 30.5% approve, according to Political Atlas.

Datafolha, however, shows that the President’s overall assessment remains stable. Today, 38% consider Bolsonaro’s performance as “bad or very bad”, 33% evaluate him as “good or excellent” and 26% as “fair”. In December, those rates reached 36%, 30% and 32%, respectively.

Independent of the polls, Vinicius Mota, a columnist for Folha de S. Paulo, estimates that “Bolsonaro’s management entered an impeachment mode, in which a weakened government sleeps and wakes up doing and paying bills to try to prevent 342 of the 513 federal deputies activate the presidential guillotine ”. “As with Collor and Dilma, Bolsonaro will have to defend himself in the midst of a severe recession. As with Dilma and Temer, the arrows will come from the Legislature, the Judiciary and other sectors of the bureaucracy, which will strangle the President’s room for maneuver, “he wrote.

Perhaps for this reason, says Velasco Júnior, “Bolsonaro is trying to approach the parties of the so-called Centrão”, of which he was part during his 28 years as a deputy. “They are the parties that practice the old politics, corruption and patronage, something that Moro always opposed. Surely these parties helped to greatly weaken Moro’s position in the government and it is very likely that they have pressured the government to get rid of the Minister of Justice, ”the analyst told this newspaper.

Along these lines, Sylvio Costa, founder of the site specialized in political coverage Congresso em Foco, recalls that the Centrão brings together 221 of the 513 deputies. “It is enough to have 171 votes, one third of the House, to avoid the impeachment process or a request for a criminal investigation against the President,” he assures. “In other words: if he has Centrão attached to his side, Bolsonaro will be able to continue in office,” he says.

The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, has evaluated, in reserved conversations, that impeachment requests “can hardly go forward”, according to the Valor Econômico newspaper, which recalls that there are already 25 initiatives in this regard. This perception, the newspaper points out, would be supported precisely by the rapprochement between Planalto and the Centrão parties “that could temporarily shield it.”

Furthermore, Marcus André Melo, a columnist for Folha de S. Paulo, believes “the pandemic reduces the probability of Bolsonaro’s dismissal.” “In Congress, the President does not have a base of support, but the costs of coordinating with Congress working virtually are very high. Furthermore, mobilization on the street and in Congress are not substitutes, but complementary: if the streets are deserted, will Congress respond to the networks and cacerolazos? ”He asks. In his opinion, “impeachment will compete on the public agenda with the health crisis. The window for impeachment created by Moro’s resignation comes just before the peak of the scourge, which weakens him. Or it makes it invisible. “