Bolivia: the “unexpected” return of the MAS to power

Exactly one year ago, and after a controversial election day that included the paralysis of the vote count, a social and political crisis broke out in Bolivia that after 21 days of national mobilizations led to the resignation of Evo Morales on November 10 after 14 years in power, starting an interim government. However, After a year of high tension, Bolivians decided in Sunday’s elections – postponed twice due to the pandemic – the return of the Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) to power, led by Luis Arce, who will govern until 2025.

Polls had anticipated that Sunday’s result would be marked by a narrow difference, but most of the polls were wrong, estimating a second round in which Arce, former Minister of Economy under Evo Morales’ administration, would be defeated by former President Carlos Table. In the end, the opposite happened: Arce won in the first round (with 53%) according to the exit polls, while Mesa won 30%. The former minister thus exceeded the vote that Evo Morales obtained in 2019 (47%).

The victory in the first round surprised many in Bolivia. At noon, the Mesa himself recognized the “overwhelming” victory of the MAS and assured that the Citizen Community (CC) alliance will be the head of the opposition to the future government. According to La Paz analysts, what happened at the polls in part would be a “punishment vote” by Bolivians for the interim government of Jeanine Áñez, highly criticized for her management in the pandemic and for the ambition of the governor herself to want to extend her mandate .

In the midst of the protests and in the absence of the constitutional replacement, on November 12, Áñez – then “unknown” senator for the Beni region and second vice president of the Senate – took office backed by the Armed Forces and a Bible.

At that time, Evo Morales and his close circle, including Luis Arce, had to leave Bolivia on a turbulent journey that took them to Mexico, where they were received by one of the few left-wing rulers in the region: Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

From there, The now winner of the elections lived a brief exile, to later be nominated as a presidential candidate, accompanied by former Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca, with whom he celebrated the results on Sunday night in La Paz after prevailing in five of the nine departments of the country: La Paz, Oruro, Cochabamba, Potosí and Pando.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) -which continued with the scrutiny this Monday- modified the electoral calendar and although the Bolivian leaders used to take office in January, the pandemic and the resignation of Morales modified the date, which would take place between 31 of October and November 14. This, if there are no tables observed.

“Why have many people who had abandoned Evo as a candidate now returned to vote for MAS? It is a punishing vote against the government because they insisted on a hate speech, divisive, polarizing, marginalizing, bordering on racist. If the MAS was weak in December after Evo left, the interim government with that form and rhetoric helped them rearticulate. In addition to all the acts of corruption, the management of the pandemic and Áñez’s candidacy, voters thought that if this was Evo’s replacement, they would prefer to return to something known, “he tells Third Bolivian journalist and political analyst Raúl Peñaranda.

Despite putting on cold cloths, the transitional government experienced harsh and criticized episodes that would have disappointed the voter who decided to “embrace the MAS again. In addition to the complaints of political persecution, Áñez unleashed at least two diplomatic conflicts. The first occurred in December, when nine former Masista officials took refuge in the residence of the Mexican embassy in La Paz, which led to the expulsion of three Mexican and Spanish diplomats, and complaints of siege to the location. In turn, the second case was against the government of Alberto Fernández, who was accused of interference in the internal affairs of Bolivia, since it granted asylum to Morales and his close friends.

The tension of Bolivians increased in the midst of the pandemic, which until yesterday had 139,771 infected and 8,481 deaths, due to the fact that the local press denounced that patients had to “wander” through medical centers to be hospitalized. Even the Covid-19 managed to penetrate the Burned Palace, infecting Añez and 11 officials. In parallel, the first accusations of corruption arose, after it was revealed that the interim Executive paid US $ 4.7 million, that is, four times its price in the market, for 170 mechanical respirators, which caused the departure and arrest from the Minister of Health, Marcelo Navajas.

Added to all this was the “failed” candidacy of Jeanine Áñez, who when she took power assured that she would not extend her mandate, but rather sought to pacify the country. But in January he announced his candidacy, although his popularity quickly plummeted, forcing him to resign the candidacy on September 17.

Thus, the center-right came to the polls again divided into different fronts: Carlos Mesa (30%), Luis Fernando Camacho (14%), Chu Hyung Chung (1.6%) and Feliciano Mamani (0.5%).

Camacho was the last to accept defeat. Of course, he said that “for the first time in history, Santa Cruz will have a bench that represents them.” Until yesterday there were no clear results on the Legislative Assembly, which in any case would be dominated by the MAS.

After its triumph, the MAS would not seek to restructure itself and distance itself from the image of Evo Morales in the new government. On the contrary, the Masista celebration went beyond Bolivian borders and reached Buenos Aires, where the former president was attentive to the results that would allow him to return to Bolivia.

The former head of state assured yesterday that “my great wish is to return to Bolivia, to enter my region, the Tropic of Cochabamba,” and that he will fulfill it “sooner or later.”

Despite this, the return date divides the masistas. According to the newspaper El Deber, some voices such as the senator elected by Cochabamba Leonardo Loza have already requested to coordinate Morales’ entry into the national territory, while others await the final scrutiny. The truth is that the Bolivian Prosecutor’s Office maintains several open investigations against the former president, not only for the accusations of the interim government for alleged “sedition” and “terrorism” for allegedly coordinating the road blockades from abroad, but also accusations for allegedly maintaining a relationship with a minor.

According to the Bolivian press, in addition to Morales and his former vice president, Álvaro García Linera, there are several former officials who remain in exile. Regarding the future of these, Chancellor Karen Longaric assured yesterday that “the next government will determine if it respects the injunctions against these people or if it releases them from responsibilities.”

The regional left, which in recent years had observed from afar how the continent turned to the right, celebrated the victory of the MAS. From the President of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, to the former president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, sent messages of support and “relief” to the Arce-Choquehuanca duo.