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He had not been seen or heard four months and thirteen days ago. “I have never adopted a measure or have omitted a measure with the purpose of abusing the human rights of any person,” he had claimed on December 11, when he left the Senate room that had just banned him for five years. public positions, when approving that constitutional accusation for his role during the initial phase of the social outbreak.
He remembered that same punishment two or three times throughout the The forum organized by the Instituto Libertad y Desarrollo lasted almost two hours and was the only speaker this morning., and in which he shelled his diagnosis on the political picture imposed by the coronavirus, the best face that this – in his opinion – paints the government. But also his warnings about danger of making mistakes in an uncertain setting, and that in the long run it will establish the historical judgment that will hang over the administration of Sebastián Piñera.
The event – originally scheduled yesterday – was defined as private and at the start of the event Chadwick asked to keep it in reserve. But was witnessed by about 60 people, about fifty of whom connected remotely. The only speaker was physically present at a table that he shared, at a distance, with LyD representatives, but also with people of his close political confidence.
One of them was the former minister Marcela Cubillos, today CEO of LyD. Bettina Horst, deputy director of Public Policy, and Natalia González, deputy director of Legal Affairs, also sat at the large table. Along with Chadwick was also the former Minister of Women, Isabel Plá. The rest of the face-to-face assistants were Roberto Munita, Andrés Dockendörff and Constanza Castillo, former coordinator of Studies of the Segpres and recently head of cabinet of the new president of the Chamber of Deputies, Diego Paulsen.
Chadwick entered the tricky business of the constitutional plebiscite still pending – initially scheduled for the day after tomorrow Sunday and postponed until October 25 – in the second part of his presentation, answering questions from virtual and present attendees. Before, he had drawn the new theater of operations for the President, the government and the sector.
It is the first time that Piñera’s right arm has explained his points of view before a hypothetical change of scenery of the constituent process. Until before the arrival of the pandemic, Chadwick had an indirect role in the campaign of the “Rejection” of Chile Vamos: he participated in the official command of the Chile Vamos parties and his former chief of staff, María José Gómez, was one of the heads of that team along with the former presidential delegate in the Araucanía Region, Andrea Balladares.
In addition, the leaders of Chile Vamos had asked him – including Piñera himself – to have a key role in the content that the sector should defend in the constitutional process.
It was the round of questions that triggered Chadwick’s thesis about postponing the referendum. “This is the hot potato of the political scene of the future”, he opened, clarifying that his “personal opinion, (is) that our current Constitution requires modifications, modernization. I am convinced that it does. And it needs to be done.”
He even stated that “this crisis itself will shed light on constitutional changes that we had not foreseen: states of emergency, of constitutional exception, become relevant situations in new constitutional issues that are emerging.”
And immediately, he argued that “the plebiscite of October 25 it must be determined whether or not it is done for strictly sanitary reasons. What I do have a concern is that today how the different countries are changing their electoral calendars. It is a practical thing, not an ideological one ”.
Without interruptions, he stated that “A probability that may be on the table is that for health reasons there is a certain probability that on that date we cannot have a plebiscite. The campaigns start in sixty days, we are talking about August. It is a certain possibility ”.
In addition, he pointed out that from October until next year seven elections will be accumulated “between primaries and authorities, an electoral calendar that is extremely inappropriate for the situation we are going to live in.”
“But” -and here he entered the fund- “I’m concerned that it’s like a taboo subject”, because “everyone knows that this probability exists, but as nobody dares to talk about it, because you can think that you don’t want to, and not. If what one wants is that in the eventuality that it is impossible (to make a plebiscite) that there is a Plan B discussed in advance. Not at the last minute, not until 3 in the morning, not as an improvisation that later you have to change the rule because they were wrong -because at 3 in the morning one is wrong-, but well elaborated.
Chadwick raised this “so that if the sanitary provisions say, fundamentally, that it cannot be done, an alternative is already prepared that allows us to go to a constitutional process and to a constitutional change in this other way, by this other more adjusted path and appropriate to the sanitary reasons and the situation that the country is going to be experiencing ”.
He insisted that this “Plan B is to give certainty, to give assurances that are so important, because otherwise, we will be at the last minute again.” Because, “are we going to have sanitary conditions to campaign?” which, he reiterated, should start in 60 more days.
But the guest went further. When he answered another question, one he asked Arturo Fermandois (former ambassador to the United States during Piñera, Part I), he took advantage of gambling with a forecast: that the constitutional contest, being marked by the virus, could be redrawn and overshadowed “extreme” positions, allowing a debate with more “moderation”.
“I feel that the constitutional debate is going to take place in a different political and social environment,” he launched, arguing – in his opinion – that the social demands “of last year were marked by demands from the middle sectors, in a country that was in a development process. ”Instead, “The next constitutional debate, I think, we are going to face with social demands and expectations in a poorer country, where the most basic social demands are going to be a priority”.
According to him, they will be “very determined by employment, by conditions and dignity of employment and income.”
That’s when he said that “This can lead us to a constitutional debate where maximalist or more extreme positions may remain in the minority”Chadwick said. And that this “arouses a greater consensus, with more moderate, more weighted approaches. Hard? Definitely”.
But in that passage he warned that everything depends on maintaining a balance between the axis of health and the economy. Because otherwise, “we have a risk that such an extreme economic situation or a situation of risk to health may occur, that the picture will completely change us.” And that “we have a social explosion due to economic situations of lack of income.”
“We are walking on burning fire”, he stressed gravely.
He insisted that the “equation” is “delicate” for the government. But that “if this can be generated, a trend can be introduced in the effects of this crisis” that leads “to positions of greater moderation”. For the same reason, he affirmed “in the event that the plebiscite must be postponed, it requires consensus.”
But his diagnosis was more severe when it comes to the government. Although he said that health management has been good and even the Minister of Health, Jaime Mañalich -Despite his controversies- “he has had a gigantic, gigantic task,” he explained that La Moneda faces dangers that require delicate handling. Part of that has to do with the “extraordinarily complex equation” that he mentioned several times in reference to health control and measures “to avoid an economic and social disaster.”
At that point he referred to the concept of “new normality”, which – he said – is “well focused”, but “as long as it is transmitted on the basis” that it is gradual, not immediate; that the “priority is always health”, and not lose sight of the fact that in all of this one deals with “fear”.
There Chadwick mentioned “a couple of tips”To avoid serious mistakes in this crisis management. The one that repeated the most (three times) is one that has historically passed the bill to this government: “Do not generate expectations,” he said repeatedly, insisting that “we are in a situation of obvious risk that it may fail.”
That, because “any change” in that line can harm the government. That is why he called for “not to rush” since “this is very complex and we are on a very subtle line.”
“Not rushing is an attitude that is a good companion to maintain respect for authority,” he reiterated, and asked to be “careful about creating an environment of normality.”
At that point, Chadwick strongly stated that managing this crisis should be La Moneda’s only priority: “I see no other task, another mission, for the government of President Piñera.” And he said “I hope you understand that.” So much so, that he ruled that “this is the reason why this government will be judged and historically evaluated.”
Before his forecast of the plebiscite and debate, the former minister had long crumbled the political landscape for La Moneda. The basis of his argument is that certain axes changed after the arrival of the virus, somewhat replacing the picture that had existed since October 18. In describing what had hitherto been on the table, he repeatedly referred to the “front line” protesters in another way: the “front rows.”
“The violence was frozen. Not one hundred percent. How long – hopefully a long time – is there no mention of the “first rows”? Plaza Italia was cleared and the degrees of violence decreased. ” That, he said, “has marked a different political environment.” He linked this statement with survey figures (he only quoted Cadem) to show that Piñera was recovering approval levels and that the same rebound was benefiting Carabineros.
Chadwick noted that the trend now is “that the authorities are beginning to be valued” and that they have “the strength and support to be able to drive.” While he also had words to the opposition debate regarding the role in managing the health crisis.
“The opposition has not found a speech, and former President Lagos said it starkly,” he said. And he said that today he sees “a scenario of greater weight, greater moderation, greater realism, greater respect for authority and greater conditions for stability and governance.”
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