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The team ICovid Chile, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its report number 31, document that alerts a worsening of the coronavirus epidemic in the country, “accelerating in the Metropolitan Region and the center-south.”
According to the last report (see document), with information obtained up to 6th of March, experts stated that new cases nationwide experienced a new rise, with 4,304 average daily cases, something “significantly higher” than the 3,924 of the previous week.
“This increase is It is driven mainly by the Metropolitan, Maule, Biobío, Los Ríos, O’Higgins and Los Lagos regions. Is particularly worrying is the case of the Metropolitan Region which has a number of new cases equivalent to 65 percent of the total increase in the country, “says the study.
In this sense, ICovid warns that All regions keep the burden indicator – the daily incidence rate for the last seven days, calculated daily per 100,000 inhabitants – in red (out of control).
Similarly, it indicates that transmission (effective R) is at a critical level at the national level (1.08) and in 14 of the 16 regions of the country, with the exception of Tarapacá and Antofagasta.
In decreasing order, The most worrying effective Rs are those of the Metropolitan (1.16), O’Higgins (1.14) regions; Los Ríos (1.13) and Maule (1.11).
Faced with this scenario, Guillermo Cabrera-Vives, academic and director of the Data Science Unit of the U. de Concepción, pointed out that the average daily number of new infected is similar to the values observed in May and June 2020, with critical transmission levels, figures that could be related to the appearance of new variants of the virus.
“In our country the variants detected in the United Kingdom and Brazil are already circulating, which have shown to have greater transmissibility. The entry into our country of these variants could partially explain these increases in contagion rates, together with the relaxation of non-pharmacological measures due to vacations and infections in closed places., among others, “explained the professor.
Summary of indicators by region. Source: ICovid
UPGRADE PCR TESTS
On the other hand, the total number of PCR test reported by 100,000 inhabitants per week increased to 17.6 (equivalent to 2.5 daily tests per 1,000 inhabitants, compared to 2.3 daily tests last week), growing consistently since mid-February.
However, the positivity With respect to the total number of tests carried out at the national level, it also increased, reaching 8.9 percent nationwide.
The south-central area of the country (O’Higgins, Maule, Ñuble, La Araucanía and Los Ríos) together with Tarapacá present the highest proportion of positive tests during the first week of March, “all in a critical level (red) that requires urgent measures to improve“says the report.
The Metropolitan Region, with a high growth and number of infected, also increased its proportion of positive tests of 6.5 percent the week before the report to 7.2 percent, despite showing an increase in the total number of tests (from 12.3 to 13.6 per 1,000 inhabitants per week).
TRACEABILITY
According to ICovid, early traceability at the national level, it maintains the trend it has shown in recent weeks. That is, 68 percent of laboratory tests were reported within 24 hours to the health authority, a proportion that has shown a sustained rise since mid-January when only 46 percent of the exams were being reported in that time frame.
The proportion of cases consultation within 48 hours from the onset of symptoms remains within the ranges in which it has fluctuated since the beginning of October (53 to 60 percent), although it shows a slight drop from the previous report (54 versus 56 percent). For its part, the proportion of cases that took less than 72 hours to be confirmed to the health authority does not exceed 50 percent (46 percent) and maintains the slight upward trend that has been observed since mid-January when it was 40 percent.
“At the regional level, great heterogeneity continues to be observed, with Especially worrying figures for some of these three indicators, in Atacama, Araucanía and Aysén. The Arica and Parinacota region stands out positively with these three indicators in proportions greater than 70 percent (yellow color) “, the report adds.
Regarding this point, Alejandra Fuentes-Garcia, an academic from the School of Public Health of the U. de Chile, remarked that “early traceability indicators continue to be achieved at levels of achievement close to the most dangerous threshold” and that “it is necessary to optimize these early stages with interventions that encourage consultation / testing as soon as symptoms appear and the acceleration of the registration and laboratory processes “.
CRITICAL BEDS TO THE TOP
Finally, ICovid advises that the availability of ICU beds nationwide “is, once again, a matter of great concern.”
The report states that the average weekly occupancy continues to rise and reaches a critical level of 93.5 percent.
Thirteen of the 16 regions have an occupancy level above the critical threshold of 85 percent, most far above that level, like Antofagasta, La Araucanía, Valparaíso, Biobío, Metropolitana, Coquimbo, O’Higgins, Los Ríos and Maule.
The proportion of occupancy of ICU beds with Covid-19 patients has increased steadily since mid-December at the country level, the team maintains.
After a stabilization during February around 57 percent, the average for the first week of March was 60.3 percent and for the last three days, 62.0 percent.
“These very high levels of ICU bed occupancy limit patient mobility and, considering the sustained expansion of the pandemic nationwide and the increase in the proportion of ICU bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients, they can have very serious consequences “, concludes the report.
Against this backdrop, the academic and public health researcher at the UC School of Government, Eduardo Undurraga, stated that although the Executive “has adopted a centralized hospital management model at the national level and patients can move from one region to another”, these “extremely high occupancy levels” of critical beds “limit patient mobility.”
“Considering the sustained expansion of the pandemic at the national level, especially in the Metropolitan Region and the south central zone of the country, we hope that there will be an increase in the demand for hospital care, which today is stressed to the limit “emphasized the expert.
“It is possible that the successful vaccination campaign will begin to show effects on the demand for beds among the elderly, which was the first group to be vaccinated, but this effect is in contrast to an increase in the demand for critical beds due to the growth of the pandemic. “he added.
