[ad_1]
The team ICovid Chile, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its 23rd report on Thursday, a document that warns that our country “is in the red” in the face of the pandemic, with increases in infections in all regions and worrying figures on traceability, positivity and hospital occupancy.
According to the latest report (see document), with information obtained up to January 9, there is a 29% increase in the number of new cases nationwide, from 15.5 to 19.9 new cases per one hundred thousand inhabitants; which worsens when comparing this period with the first week of December, marking a growth of 143% in the weekly number of infections.
In several regions, even greater increases are seen in the last week: 79% in Antofagasta, 78% in Arica, 76% in Los Ríos, 71% in Aysén and 64% in Los Lagos. ICOVID experts point out that “no regions with a significant decrease in the weekly number of new cases were observed. All regions present a burden of disease in red values, which means that the spread of the disease is in a critical situation and in progress. increase”.
“The extreme north concentrates the highest increase in cases in the last month, however, the highest levels of disease burden continue to be observed in the southern regions of the country,” he says.
Regarding the transmission index (R), has remained above 1 and increasing in the last four weeks (1.17 in the first week of January) nationwide: in the regions of Arica, Tarapacá, Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo, Valparaíso, O’Higgins, Los Ríos, Los Lagos and Aysén it increased in the last four weeks and it remains at values higher than the R country, which implies that in these each sick person infects, on average, more than one.
The epidemiologist and head of the Medicine career at the University of Concepción, Ana Maria Moraga, urged that, “beginning the summer season and considering the critical national situation and in all regions, It is very important that everyone, authorities and citizens, can assume responsibility in self-care and in caring for those around us in a responsible way, especially a call to young people to put all their energy into caring for their families and their environment “.
STRONG INCREASE IN POSITIVITY COMPARED TO DECEMBER
In the week analyzed, there were 16.3 tests per 1,000 inhabitants, resuming growth after the decrease due to the end of the year holidays; however, the positivity at the national level is 8.8%, marking an increase of 70% compared to the figures observed in mid-December.
All regions show increases in their positivity, and “Of particular concern are Tarapacá, La Araucanía, Los Ríos and Magallanes due to their high values, as well as Arica and Antofagasta due to the pronounced increase in the last two weeks”, the report details.
“Although the positivity also increased in previous holidays (September 18 and October 12), this rise was explained by the drop in tests and did not extend for more than a week. We have been more than 10 days from the last holiday and the amount test has already recovered, so we could be in the presence of a real rise in positivity not explained by recent holidays“, analyzed Jorge Pérez, researcher at the Millennium Institute for Research in Fundamentals of Data and academic at the University of Chile.
CONCERN ABOUT TRACEABILITY AND EARLY CONSULTATION
Regarding traceability, the report specifies that the three indicators analyzed do not show significant improvements since October, which is “extremely worrying” given the rise in all the others (burden, positivity and hospital occupancy).
In particular, it is worrying that at the national level only 54.2% of PCR samples take less than 24 hours to be processed and reported to the health authority, which represents a decrease compared to the 61.1% observed in the first three weeks of December.
On the other hand, the indicator early consultation, which accounts for the proportion of people who consulted within the first two days since Covid-19 symptoms began, has remained with values between 50% and 60% since the beginning of October, with a very slow upward trend in the last three months, but “far from the 80% necessary for this strategy to help control the pandemic.”
As it is, the indicator early confirmation of cases, composition of the previous two and defined as the proportion of suspicious symptomatic people whose PCR test result is reported to the health authority within three days from the date of onset of symptoms, “for logistical reasons it is delayed, so that the latter Available values are from mid-December “: This shows that at the national level the trend is of stability below 50%, without showing significant changes since the beginning of October.
INCREASE IN OCCUPATION OF ICU BEDS BY COVID PATIENTS
Regarding hospital capacity, the report revealed that “all associated indicators show a sustained and progressive increase in the last two weeks”: at the country level there is a high occupancy of ICU beds, with a average of 89% in the analyzed week (January 3 to 9, 2021), in red, an indicator that grew steadily, from 86% to 92%, in that week; and at day 12 this overload is maintained (91%), leaving the integrated system of critical beds with only 182 beds available nationwide.
In this framework, the average use of ICU beds per Covid patients It is 39% in the week analyzed, which represents an increase of 15% compared to the previous week (when it was 33.9%), an indicator that also shows growth during this week (from 36% to 42%) .
Up to date January 12 this value even increased to 45%. Meanwhile, the weekly variation rate in hospitalizations for Covid-19, which measures the trend in hospital demand for positive patients, continues to grow and remains at values over 10% in the last 10 days, confirming the negative trend of the weeks previous.
Hector Ramirez, academic and principal investigator of the Center for Mathematical Modeling of the University of Chile, stressed “this sustained growth could produce an increase in the coming weeks in the occupation of ICU beds by Covid patients.” which it’s “It shows a delicate situation that justifies the authority’s decision to suspend elective surgeries”, explained.
