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According to the new ICOVID Chile report, in the last week observed between 1,816 and 1,958 new cases were registered daily at the national level, showing a sustained increase in the average number of new cases since mid-November. In addition, the researchers reported that the occupation of beds at the national level remains around 85%, a figure considered critical.
The team iCovid Chile, initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its 20th report with analysis and data on the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Saturday, December 19, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
According to the data in this report, the average number of new cases for the week analyzed shows a sustained increase since mid-November.
In the last week observed, “between 1,816 and 1,958 new daily cases were registered, while the week of November 15 between 1,336 and 1,398 new daily cases were registered, which was already a high level of contagion (orange tree). This is equivalent to an increase of almost 40% of cases ”, is detailed in the report.
On the other hand, the effective R has also shown a sustained increase since mid-November, reaching an average of 1.12 (1.08-1.15) on December 12. “Almost all regions have a worrisome level of transmission except for the Magallanes region, which has decreased its number of reproduction during the last week. There is no significant change in transmission compared to the previous week for any region ”, explain the researchers.
Guillermo Cabrera-Vives, academic and director of the Data Science Unit of the Department of Computer Engineering of the UdeC, pointed out that “at the national level there has been a sustained increase in the number of infected and transmission since mid-November. The number of new daily cases has increased by approximately 36% to 40% since that date. In turn, with the exception of Magallanes, all regions have transmission rates at critical levels, indicating that the number of infected continues to increase. “
In terms of testing, the proportion of positive tests remains stable at around 5% at the national level, with the Magallanes region showing the most critical situation with 10.7% positivity. Likewise, the Bío Bío, La Araucanía and Los Lagos regions are in a worrying situation, maintaining a positivity around 10% (8.9%, 10.0% and 9.8%, respectively). Tarapacá and Maule increased their positivity from the previous week from 6.0% to 8.0% and from 6.8% to 7.7%, respectively.
This new report also points out that positivity for those samples from an active case search (BAC) remains close to 2.3% at the national level. In contrast, the positivity of the samples that do not come from the active search for cases is around 10% at the national level.
In the traceability dimension, the early consultation indicator, which shows the proportion of people who consulted within two days of initiating COVID-19 symptoms, has remained at around 55 and 59% since mid-October, while For the cut-off week (December 5), 58% of the cases that were consulted and were admitted as a suspect to Epivigila early.
Meanwhile, the indicator for examination and laboratory time has remained yellow (over 60%) at the national level since the beginning of November, with an average of 64% of PCR results reported to the Ministry of Health within a day from the medical consultation.
For its part, the indicator for early confirmation of cases, both at the national level and in twelve regions of the country, “is shown in orange (between 40% and 60%), that is, its performance level is not yet optimal and it is far from the 80% which is the threshold defined by ICOVID to identify a more favorable traceability situation ”, the report explains.
In this context, the academic from the School of Public Health of the University of Chile, Alejandra Fuentes-Garcia indicated that early traceability remains at medium risk levels nationwide.
“In the three indicators considered, heterogeneity is observed at the level of the regions, especially those that show traceability indicators in red, such as Tarapacá, Atacama, La Araucanía and Los Lagos, all of them with indicators in the contagion dynamics also in red. The variability between regions, as well as the improvement experienced in some of them, shows that there is room to improve the early identification of cases, which is essential for improving the processes involved in the traceability of cases and isolation of contacts. ” explained the academic.
Bed occupancy
Meanwhile, the occupation of beds nationwide this week remains at levels considered critical (around 85%), with important variations between regions.
In the case of the proportion of use of ICU beds by COVID-19 patients, at the national level it is 29.5%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous weeks (30.9% a week ago, 31.9% two weeks ago).
“There is a significant predominance of non-COVID ICU cases, possibly due to the reactivation of suspended health services during the pandemic. However, in the regions of Los Ríos (63.6%) and Bío Bío (53.8%), the highest proportion of ICU beds in use correspond to COVID patients ”, the report details. The regions of La Araucanía (41.9%), Tarapacá (41.7%) and Los Lagos (40.5%) also show a high proportion in this indicator.
Likewise, the weekly variation rate of total hospitalizations due to COVID-19 remains around 4% for the second consecutive week, with an upward trend in hospitalizations due to COVID, which has not been seen since the end of September.
In this context, the academic and public health researcher from the School of Government of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Eduardo Undurraga, explained that these figures “correspond to a level that we consider critical and, therefore, it is urgent to address”.
“Although the ministry has implemented a hospital bed management model at the national level so that patients can move from one region to another, the high values of this indicator and the sustained increase in recent weeks suggest that the health system has limited capacity to onboard COVID-19 patients. The capacity is practically saturated in La Araucanía and Biobío, both regions with a high proportion of use of ICU beds by COVID-19 patients, ”stated the UC academic.
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