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The team ICOVID Chile, An initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its report number 19 with analysis and data of the proposed dimensions to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Saturday, December 12 .
According to this new report, at the national level it is observed that the average incidence of weekly cases continues to show a significant upward trend.
“Comparing the epidemiological week of December 6 to 12 with respect to the previous week, there is an increase in the average number of new positive daily cases around 11%, rising from 8 to 8.9 per 100 thousand inhabitants, which keeps this indicator in orange color “, point out the researchers.
In this framework, statistically significant increases are observed in the region of Arica and Parinacota (↑ 7.6 daily average cases, ↑ 53.3%), Antofagasta (↑ 17 daily average cases, ↑ 63.7%), Maule (↑ 24 average daily cases, ↑ 28%), Bío Bío (↑ 35 average daily cases, ↑ 10.9%), and Los Ríos (↑ 17.5 average daily cases, ↑ 21.1%).
Faced with this scenario, Paula Margozzini, epidemiologist and academic at the Department of Public Health of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, emphasized that it is observed “A persistent increase in the number of cases nationwide and a significant increase in both the north and south. These increases are independent of the testing strategies and proof of this is that total hospitalizations due to covid-19, in any type of bed, begin to increase. This is a phenomenon that has occurred since September ”.
Along the same lines, Andrea Rodríguez, vice-rector for Research and Development at the University of Concepción, emphasized that “The situation in the country is not improving. There is a nationwide increase in the average incidence of weekly cases, with the transmission indicator R that continues to be above 1. Particularly worrying are the regions of Biobío and Los Ríos, with a load indicator above 20 ”.
On the other hand, and under this scenario, Margozzini made a call to be attentive to the precautionary measures before the end of the year parties. “Citizens have the power to reduce cases and prevent deaths. We need a true Christmas spirit, with solidarity, generosity and compassion, “he said.
Meanwhile, the experts point out that the Metropolitan Region continues to rise (↑ 38% in the last three weeks), however, in the last week this rise is not statistically significant compared to the previous week. The three regions with the highest rates are Magallanes, Los Ríos and Bío Bío.
Of the 16 regions of the country, 10 have high-risk values (red) and the other six, located in the central zone, maintain values within the orange threshold. The regional figures range from 2.6 (Atacama) to 55.5 (Magallanes) daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
For its part, the transmission indicator R remains at a high threshold (red), rising especially in Arica and Parinacota, Antofagasta and Maule. “In all regions, each case can infect at least one other case, maintaining and prolonging the epidemic,” says the report.
In addition, the researchers pointed out that in relation to early traceability, until November 21, 47% of the cases nationwide were confirmed to the health authority by the laboratory within three days from the onset of symptoms. Three regions persisted in the red level, with less than 40% of achievement (Coquimbo, Araucanía and Magallanes).
“The process within the chain of early traceability events that has improved the most at the national level are laboratory times (less than one day between requesting the exam and sending the result to MINSAL). This process has doubled the achievement rate in five months (from 32 to 62%), ”the new report reads.
According to the ICOVID Chile team, the average total occupancy of ICU beds nationwide was 86.5%, indicator in red (data series available until December 9), with especially critical indicators in regions of La Araucanía ( 97%), Antofagasta (85.7%), Coquimbo (89.4%), Valparaíso (89.6%), Metropolitana (90%) and Biobío (85.9%). This situation has already lasted for several weeks in these regions.
In this regard, Margozzini pointed out his concern about the situation in the regions to the south, where cases have increased in recent weeks, as is the case in Bío Bío. To this is added that The Metropolitan region has a high occupancy of ICU beds with non-COVID-19 patients, which limits the possibility to provide support.
“The capacity of ICU beds in the Metropolitan Region is quite at the limit, therefore, all the worrying situations in various southern regions, which are suffering greatly from congestion, cannot be overcome by transfers to the Metropolitan region”, the UC academic explained.
This week highlights the beginning of a weekly growth in the total number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 (the use of all types of beds grows by 4%, not just ICU), a phenomenon that had not occurred since the end of September.
Finally, in the report “it is striking that the weekly variation rate of total hospitalizations due to COVID-19 has increased from -3% to 4% during the last week. Although the level continues in green color, given that the change is of small magnitude, for the first time a change of direction (sign) of the variation of beds stands out ”.
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