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The Minister of Health, Enrique Paris, he told Cooperative what the Government is preparing for a possible “catastrophic” outbreak of the coronavirus in another month, after the Christmas and New Years holidays.
Paris presented on Monday to President Sebastián Piñera the detail of the possible scenarios, which -in the Minsal forecast- are three, in the event of such a significant increase in the number of infections.
The First -the “most desirable” – contemplate 3,026 new cases per day, which would translate into the occupation of 2,462 ICU beds (in the peak of the epidemic in Chile there were 3,216 operative beds).
The second scenario foresees 6,600 new cases per day and between 3,300 and 3,500 patients in ICU. This would already exceed the capacity reached in the “first wave”: it would require some 300 more beds.
At third stage, rated by the Minsal as “catastrophic”, there would be 9,560 new cases per day. This would force to have at least a thousand more beds: “A gigantic challenge,” Paris told The Cooperative Diary.
“With the first scenario -‘desirable’- we should have no problems. The second is already much more complex, and the third scenario – which is the worst, the one we have called ‘catastrophic’, which (if it occurs) is catastrophic for any country – would mean that we can have 9,560 patients a day“noted Paris.
This last situation “means that we would have to occupy or have available between 3,400 and 4,200 beds; (that is) a thousand more beds (than those installed in the peak of the epidemic)… A gigantic challenge. This is the most serious scenario “, emphasized the Secretary of State.
Strategy for Christmas and New Years
In the nine months of the epidemic, Chile adds just over 551 thousand cases of Covid-19, and currently registers an average of between 1,300 and 1,500 daily cases.
UCI bed occupancy is currently 77 percent, a figure that has been increasing due to the care of non-Covid pathologies. The situation seems controlled, despite the increase in cases in regions such as Magallanes, Valparaíso, Coquimbo and the Metropolitan.
During this time, the Chilean Society of Intensive Medicine (Sochimi), the Medical College and other experts have criticized the “hospitalocentric” view of the Government. Minister Enrique Paris responds that it is necessary to ensure care, but, in the face of possible regrowth, a strategy is being worked on that, without neglecting the above, will emphasize communication and awareness.
“You can’t all be focused on hospitality. First, the general approach will consist of creating awareness in the population of the situation that is being experiencedAnd that is why we are getting a lot ahead of the situation, “said the minister, who raised the intention of” promoting early consultation as well. “
“We are preparing a strategy for people to celebrate Christmas and the New Year as a family, (but) without crowds, with capacity both inside and outside (of the houses) “, he advanced.
“I think people will understand. Nobody wants a relative or oneself to get sick in this period“, said the Secretary of State.
The key remains prevention
Is there human capacity, of health personnel, to face the worst contagion scenario, if it happens?
For him President of Sochimi, Darwin Acuña, “It should not be forgotten that health personnel are tired, there has been little renewal and rest”.
Thus, “it is very important to strengthen personal care measures. This means: hand washing, isolation or social distance and the use of a mask, all this in order to the intensity of a possible second wave is not such and we still have the availability to handle patients who need it“said the expert.
If the “catastrophic” scenario occurs, Minister Paris pointed out, the health system will have to request help from universities, scholars and interns in medicine, nursing and other health careers, as happened in countries like England.
In any case, the hope is that the worst prognoses are not fulfilled, since measures such as oxynotherapy and prone equipment have made it possible to reduce ICU hospitalizations from 5 to 2.5 percent.
