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According to the latest report, at the regional level statistically significant increases are observed in the regions of Magallanes (43%), Los Ríos (29%), O’Higgins (28%), La Araucanía (20%) and Metropolitana (20%) .
Researchers from ICOVID Chile call to be alert, especially before the arrival of the summer season.
The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led by the Universidad de Chile, the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and the Universidad de Concepción, presented its report number 16 with analysis and data of the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Saturday, November 21, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
According to the latest report, comparing the last with the penultimate week, the number of new cases nationwide grew by 13%, from 7.0 to 7.9 daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
“On the other hand, if the penultimate week is compared with the previous one, the new cases remained stable (growth of 0%). Taking into account that the most recent cargo data has a greater margin of error, it will be important to observe in the next report if the high growth rate observed this week is maintained ”, explain the experts.
At the regional level, statistically significant and greater increases in the number of cases are observed in the regions of Magallanes (43%), Los Ríos (29%), O’Higgins (28%), La Araucanía (20%) and Metropolitana (20 %). Charge levels remain at very high levels (red) in Arica and Parinacota, Tarapacá, and all the regions of Ñuble to the south.
Given these figures, the academic from the School of Public Health of the University of Chile, Mauricio Canales, expressed concern about an eventual increase in interregional travel.
“In the north-central area, the situation is calmer, but tense in the face of the arrival of the summer season, in which internal trips increase with the danger of transmission from the areas of high prevalence to the currently quieter areas. We still have problems with traceability, but with room for improvement with a responsible attitude of the population and an improvement in management. We must not relax our behaviors or reduce the perception of the risk that COVID-19 means, “said the academic.
Harvard University academic and statistician expert, Jose Zubizarreta, made a call to maintain the measures of care.
“We see an increase in the number of new cases in the south, particularly in the regions of La Araucanía, Los Ríos and Magallanes. In the Metropolitan region we also see an increase, although the total level of cases (per 100 thousand inhabitants) is lower. By now, one is very tired, but the virus does not tire and spreads more easily in closed spaces or when we do not use masks. For this reason, it is crucial that we maintain these basic measures to avoid the situation that we are seeing now in countries of the northern hemisphere ”, he said.
For his part, the engineer and academic from the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Chile, Eduardo EngelHe explained that as long as there is no vaccine that can be applied massively in the country, “we must maintain self-care measures. This way we will prevent contagions from growing again in regions where they have reached intermediate levels (orange and yellow in the ICOVID signage) and we will contribute to reducing their level in regions where they currently have very high values (red in the ICOVID signage) “.
As for the transmission indicator R “it remains in ranges that include values greater than one at the national level and in all regions, so that the corresponding signage remains in red at the national level and in each of the regions”, it is explained in the report. Compared to the previous week, the R values at the national and regional level did not show significant variations, except in Magallanes, where it rose from 0.94 to 1.14.
In general terms, the testing has remained at adequate levels for several weeks, with 11.92 and 11.75 per thousand inhabitants in the last two weeks reported and the indicator is in green in 11 regions of the country and in yellow from Coquimbo to the Maule.
However, the values are high from Biobío to Magallanes with 12.6 to 29.1 per thousand inhabitants per week. The positivity, meanwhile, has remained relatively stable with 4.34% (in yellow color) nationwide, with values between 1.32 and 3.4% from Arica to O’Higgins, and a slight rise in Atacama (from 1.72 to 2.39%).
From the Maule region to the Magallanes region, positivities vary between 5.15 and 10.1%, with higher values in Los Ríos (19.1%) and Magallanes (9.8%). In turn, ascents are detected in the Ñuble and Biobío regions, areas where “it would be convenient to increase the diagnostic effort with a greater number of tests”, the researchers detail.
Meanwhile, on traceability issues, “Early consultation remains stable, between 45.9 and 66%, with a slightly upward trend. The proportion of those reported by the laboratory before 24 hours remains relatively stable “, is detailed in the report.
With respect to the traceability dimension, the report indicates that although there has been an improvement since the end of September in the proportion of those informed early, this has stabilized at values that are still insufficient for a good capacity to isolate cases. A national average is close to 44.5%, with regions with low values such as Coquimbo (34.4)%, La Araucanía (34.4%), Los Lagos (35.6%), Aysén (20.5% ) and Magallanes (36.1%).
Early consultation varies between 45.9 and 66%, and the lowest values are observed in La Araucanía (45.9%), Ñuble (48.9%) and Biobío (53%), which are also “regions of high positivity ”Is added in the report.
The proportion of those reported by the laboratory before 24 hours is at stable values close to 62%, but with cases where there seems to be a notable delay, such as Atacama (21.4%) and Los Lagos (26.1%).
“It stands out that La Araucanía has managed to notably improve this aspect, going from 37.5 to 54.4%. This shows that these values can be improved, helping to achieve good traceability ”, highlights the ICOVID Chile team.
“This indicator not only depends on the management of the laboratories, but also on the management of the people to take the quick test after being notified. We must insist on educating the population in those places where consultation is low and improving the management of cases in laboratories, “added the researchers.
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