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That there will be a law for a second early retirement of pensions, there will be. It is the only clear thing so far. If the constitutional reform project initiated by the deputies and / or the one presented by the government to stop it and get on a car that was being left out will be imposed, that it will begin to clear maybe tomorrow; the signs at this point in the day seem to tip the balance in its favor. Y If people will be able to collect those funds for Christmas, it will depend on the management of the times and the movements of political pieces in this game that is played in Congress and in the Constitutional Court.
The calculations are more or less fair; they could reach on the margin. In addition to the conflict between the Executive and the Legislative, it is at stake that La Moneda manages to get out of the political corner in which the initiative of the deputies was leaving it, and the options that the opposition takes. How are the cards lying, both sides have public pressure on them so that payment is not delayed and they all have the word Christmas well engraved in their heads. Let’s see the times.
The draft constitutional reform of the deputies It will begin to be resolved in the Senate room this afternoon, after today’s table was modified and the session between 10:30 and 16:00 was left for the Budget Law, which must finish its processing at the latest late this Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. another session begins, but that opens with the matter of reserved seats for the Constituent Convention, and only after the second withdrawal of 10%. For that they have until 20:00, time in which the senators will resume the Budget.
It is not ruled out – after the consultations on the government side – that its senators extend the discussion on reserved seats in the hope that the second withdrawal will not be voted today. Some read reasons: one, to buy time for the Segpres to ensure that none of its legislators vote in favor and that they do so with the government’s text.
Just this noon the UDI Ivan Moreira He backed off with his highly announced support for both projects (of course with an appointment with the President and the First Lady in La Moneda in between), although in the portfolio led by the minister Christian Monckeberg and the undersecretary Juan Jose Ossa they insist that sThey will only be safe when that meat is done in the room.
Anyway, the president of the Senate, Adriana muñoz, has already admitted that “it is probable” that the draft constitutional reform will not be voted on today but tomorrow, “but we are going to make every effort to process it with the urgency it has.” An irritating message for the Segpres because the one with legislative urgency (immediate discussion) is that of the government, and not the other.
If it is not enough today, then both will vote tomorrow, in the session called for 10:00. If the Jiles-Bianchi text is voted on and approved in the room, unchanged from what came from the Senate, that is where the legislative process ends. But he has two problems that prevent him from becoming law. One is that so far he does not have enough votes: he needs 3/5, that is, 26, and so far he only has 23 insurance-insurance (the 24 of the opposition is subtracted from the still convalescent senator Alejandro Navarro).
The other is that, if they had the votes, to get it ready they would have to dispatch the same thing that came from the Chamber and that depends on indications, starting – they point out in the government – for one approved in the Constitution Commission that shortened the payment times Of retirement.
But the most delicate obstacle is the request to the TC with which President Piñera tries to neutralize it, and that he entered on Sunday. Thanks to that move, even if the deputies’ bill saves all its fences tomorrow, the day after, or next week, the president can no longer enact it.
You cannot sign the enactment because the day before yesterday Monday 23 the president of the TC and her former chief of advisers from the Second Floor, Maria Luisa Brahm, communicated to him ex officio that the 124 pages signed by the constitutional lawyers Gastón Gómez and José Francisco García had entered the court. According to “Article 93, first paragraph, No. 3, and fourth, fifth and sixth paragraphs of the Political Constitution of the Republic” – which he cites there-, As of that act, the law cannot be promulgated until the TC resolves the aforementioned appeal. You can continue processing, yes.
And for it to fail, there is time. The Tuesday 1 the plenary session of the TC will decide whether to accept it for processing and -in a change from the usual so as not to lengthen this further, they say there- will also settle your admissibility. As soon as I solve the latter, it starts a period of ten consecutive days, extendable by a maximum of another ten more, for the plenary session to meet, resolve and pass judgment. In between there will be allegations of the parties, public and that will be transmitted by the YouTube channel of the TC.
If it takes only ten days, the deadline expires on friday 11. If all 20 are taken, it will all end in the TC on Monday 21, four days before Christmas. And there they already know about the citizen pressure because after October 18 they even removed the plaque that reads “Constitutional Court” from the front of the building and they even tried what to do if a mob invaded them with incendiary devices.
Anyway, in the TC they calculate that if for a, b, or reason the Jiles-Bianchi project manages to advance faster, they will rush the times to fail. Protests near La Moneda (336 meters away) and the Civic District are becoming common. To that we must add that the bets indicate that this time Piñera is safe and that he should have the right-wing majority in his favor there.
Alabama Government project has more distance because it entered later. But in the House of Government they calculate that if the Senate fence passes tomorrow (it does not need a quorum of 3/5), from there it goes to the Chamber of Deputies, where it would have to go through commissions. If that works for them, they believe – optimistically – that it could be voted in the room between Tuesday 1 and Wednesday 2, next week, and with that it would be on the verge of being law. Of course, as long as there they do not make changes to what they receive from the Senate, because if everything does not go to the Mixed Commission and there the time will be longer; so it will be key whether the deputies let or not pass the tax that the government project has, one of the few rules that saved unscathed yesterday.
The week after that, between Monday 7 and Friday 11, is districtl; there are no sessions. They could lift it if there is urgency, but in between is the censorship of the opposition to the ruling table of the Chamber. In the government they insist that “their” second withdrawal will not take so long. If they succeed, it could be ready for Piñera to sign (they hope it will be immediate, not the more than 26 hours he waited to enact the first withdrawal) next week or at the latest the next. If all this, its best scenario, does not go through potholes.
Whether or not it will make it to Christmas will depend on all this. But also, if the government project gets its way – in the “best” case it would be enough – only the first withdrawal installment (50%) can be charged after 15 days; the second will wait 15 more days. The text of the deputies establishes that everything is paid at once in 15 days.
This whole maze full of legislative hardware, deadlines Legal and political skirmishes seem to bring the government project closer to the oven door. If the opposition concludes, as it seems, that the Jiles-Bianchi text is bogged down, it may have no choice but to support the Palacio if it does not want to be blamed – that’s the politics, the arguments are a boomerang– that money does not reach people.
The government bets on this to a marker (emulating the sayings of Francisco Vidal when he made electoral bets as spokesman) from 3 to 0: may your project win, that of the deputies lose, and may all your people in Congress agree with your text and not with the other. It would be a respite for Minister Monckeberg, whose head they have asked before for not being able to order his ranks. They would also achieve, say those who have faith in this in the Palace, that if they also win in the TC they would stop the “transitory reforms” or “constitutional circumvention.”
Of course, depending on how the TC resolves it, if it agrees with the government, that will open another door: on what political foot will the already questioned body remain in the constituent debate.
