[ad_1]
The team ICovid Chile, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its report number 15, document that warns that the extreme north and south of the country continue with a high level of contagion.
According to the latest report, with information obtained up to November 14, At the national level, an increase in the burden of coronavirus infection is observed, while the transmission indicator remains on 1: that is, the rate of infections continues to grow in the country.
The indicator testing, in turn, it remains in proper numbers and the positivity has decreased at the national level. But nevertheless, traceability indicators, both early consultation and early delivery of results, have not yet reached a safe level in the country and more than half of the cases have a delay of more than three days between the onset of symptoms and confirmation.
Mauricio Lima, researcher in population dynamics and academic at the UC Faculty of Biological Sciences, explained that “the general panorama of the epidemic in Chile this week is of Values that have been improving in the central area of the country, but there is concern about the burden of infected in some regions of the center-south and an indication of increased transmission in the regions of Atacama and Coquimbo.
1) ANALYSIS BY DIMENSIONS: CONTAGES
Refering to Contagion Dynamics, in this new report it is observed that all the regions of the country exceed the threshold of one daily contagion per 100,000 inhabitants, which is the standard defined as safe, thus maintaining a risk of re-growth.
The regions with the highest number of infected are Magallanes (59.5 per 100,000 inhabitants), Los Lagos (44.3 per 100,000 inhabitants), Los Ríos (37.6 per 100,000 inhabitants) Y La Araucanía (26.0 per 100,000 inhabitants).
Between the previous report and the current one, there is a significant increase in the national average rate of new daily cases (+ 8.6 percent), with regions showing even more worrisome numbers like Ñuble (+35 percent), Los Lagos (+32.3 percent) and Biobío (+18.9 percent).
2) TRANSMISSION
The rate of transmission (effective R) is currently greater than 1 (1.07), that is, that of a “mildly growing epidemic” at the national level.
The regions with the highest transmission rates are Ñuble (1.32), Aysén (1.24), Atacama (1.24) and Coquimbo (1.23)Therefore, it is possible to speak of two geographic foci with higher transmission values: one located between the Ñuble and Los Lagos regions and the other between the Atacama and Coquimbo regions.
The experts raise their concern about these territories as “the summer holidays are approaching and with them the explosion of interregional travel.”
Catterina Ferreccio, an epidemiologist and academic at the UC Department of Public Health, points out that, with the reproduction rate of the epidemic over 1, “A higher number of new cases will be maintained in the coming weeks. The most worrying thing today is the persistence of high rates in the extreme north, and mainly in the southern regions of the country, in areas with a high flow of national and foreign tourists in the summer. “
3) TESTING
In the dimension of testing it is observed that “The number of PCR tests performed per 1,000 inhabitants per week in the country remains high“, with a Stable positivity nationwide with 4.4 percent (yellow color).
However, in some regions the indicator of positivity remains at values above the national average, the figures of Magallanes (11.3 percent), Los Ríos (10.3 percent) and La Araucanía (9.2 percent), where “given the high burden of infected people in these regions, it is essential to rapidly increase the testing capacity, increasing to 50 or more tests per 100,000 inhabitants”, recommend the researchers from ICovid Chile.
Marcelo Olivares, Engineer and academic from the University of Chile, highlights the gradual improvement that has been observed in terms of testing capacity at the national level.
“This is a very relevant indicator to have an adequate measurement of the infectious burden and thus carry an adequate control of the pandemic. However, We see that the situation in the Los Ríos and Los Lagos region is extremely worrying: they have a very high number of new cases, a high rate of R transmission and a high positivity of PCR tests. Insufficient testing capacity makes us lose visibility of the pandemic, which makes it difficult to take measures to contain it, “said the expert.
4) TRACEABILITY
The dimension of traceability stays with orange color indicators at the national level and shows variability at the regional level, similar to those observed in the previous report.
The regions of Atacama, Coquimbo, Araucanía, Los Lagos and Magallanes show one or two of the traceability indicators in the red zone.
Early confirmation, which measures the percentage of confirmed cases within three days of symptom onset, has been gradually improving since late September and currently 55 percent of cases were reported as suspect within two days. from the onset of symptoms.
In turn, a gradual improvement is observed in test processing and, at the close of this report, 60 percent of PCR tests were reported within one day of the case being reported.
At the territorial level, there are some regions with low traceability rates, and cause The situation in La Araucanía is of particular concern, where only 30 percent of cases are being confirmed within three days from the onset of symptoms.
“The early detection and isolation of confirmed cases is essential to keep transmission levels under control (…) We must continue working so that all these indicators exceed 60 percent. As this is achieved, we are approaching stabilize transmission at controllable levels, “the report states.
FALSE SENSATIONS FOR FATIGUE
With these results, the doctor juan carlos said, Master in Public Health, said that “Araucanía is particularly concerned: the ICovid report shows that positivity is greater than 10%, and it is the region that has more indicators in red with respect to pandemic control.”
“Several things have failed in the south, like early confirmation,” he said.
“And today the main enemy -he warned- is the fatigue of the pandemic, the feeling that the pandemic is over, that the vaccine is just around the corner, when the reality is not that. “
