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“Electoral effect of the fragmentation of the vote of the center-right in the constituent election.” This is the title of a document prepared by the deputy and political scientist Thomas Fuentes (RN) along with other leaders of that party. The text includes simulations of electoral scenarios in case Chile Vamos decides not to go into an electoral pact in the April elections with the Republican Party, led by Jose Antonio Kast.
“The analysis is focused on the distribution of the 155 seats in the constitutional convention. The results observed in the elections of councilors 2016 and regional councilors (cores) 2017 are used as a basis ”, says the minute, in which it is realized that if Chile Vamos goes on a list without the Kast community, it will lose representation in that instance.
In the study carried out by Fuentes – which his peers also adhere to Diego Schalper, Luis Pardo Y Diego Paulsen– The agreements made in 2016 – of councilors – and in 2017, of regional councilors are included. Regarding the first, it is recalled: “Chile Vamos participated grouped in three lists: an RN, a UDI and an Evópoli-PRI. The former Nueva Mayoría was grouped into three lists: a DC-PS, a PPD-PC and a PR-MAS-IC. In all cases the lists include independents. A total of 17 lists were presented ”. In the second, meanwhile, it is stated that “Chile Vamos participated grouped in two lists: an RN-Evópoli and a UDI-PRI. The former Nueva Mayoría was grouped into two lists: one DC-PS and one with the other parties (PC-PR-PPD-MAS-IC). In all cases the lists include independents. Twelve lists were presented in total ”.
Thus, the text makes simulations under four scenarios: with the lists as they were presented in each election in 2016 and 2017; with the parties of Chile Vamos grouped in a single payroll and the other communities maintain their original groupings; The third scenario is with Chile. We go on a unity list, but the Republican Party – running outside – obtaining 5% of the votes in each district; and the last simulation is similar to the third, but the Republican Party gets 10% of the vote in each district and Chile Vamos goes on a single list, reducing its original vote by ten points.
The conclusions establish that, if the original vote of 2016 or 2017 were obtained, Chile Vamos, going on separate lists, would have obtained 65 councilors or 75 cores of the 155 seats to be distributed. On the other hand, the minute indicates that if Chile Vamos had been grouped in a single list, both in councilors and cores, it could have increased to 83 seats; and that the same could be replicated in the constitutional convention. “This implies an increase of 18 seats (councilors) or 8 seats (cores)”, states the text.
Thus, it is established that, in this scenario, in which case the Republican Party goes abroad and obtains 5% of the votes, it would be negative for the sector. “In the first place, that 5% is not enough to obtain any seats. Secondly, that, despite the above, the reduction in the voting of the Chile Vamos list produces a damage in its electoral achievement, reducing its seats by 9 (councilors) or 6 (cores) ”, says The document.
And in the results of the last scenario it is established that “if the Republican Party, instead of obtaining 5%, obtained 10%, the result is different from the previous one. A 10% vote, given the dispersion in the other lists, allows for 9 seats. The Chile Vamos list loses 21 (councilors) or 17 seats (cores) compared to the simulation with a united list ”.
“If we consider the 2016 municipalities, it is shown that if Chile Vamos were united with the Republican Party it would obtain 18 additional seats, reaching a total of 83. In the event that the Republican party competed on a separate list and obtained 10% of the vote , they would obtain 9 seats, Chile Vamos would lose 21, and the center-right would remain with 71. That is, if it is not possible to compete in a unitary list, 12 possible seats would be lost “, affirms Fuentes. And he adds: “The election of the conventional will be the most important election for all political leaders today. For this reason, we call on the presidents of RN, the UDI, Evópoli and the leaders of the sector, such as José Antonio Kast and Sebastián Sichel, to face this process together “, while Schalper maintains that” the study is clear, not it is about what each party or movement achieves individually, but about how competing together on a single list benefits us in the face of a divided opposition. “
The idea of including Kast’s party in a unitary block list came from the UDI, the party that made the request to the rest of Chile Vamos. However, there are sectors of RN and Evópoli that resist the idea of including it. Kast, for his part, met with RN parliamentarians a few days ago. And on November 2 he sent a letter to the President Sebastian Piñera to urge the coalition to make an electoral pact.
On that occasion, Kast set a limit on Wednesday of that week to obtain a response, a period that has already expired. However, RN deputies insist that they must go together and, therefore, they will show the study to the party leadership and plan to meet again with the former presidential flag bearer.
