Pfizer: a promising vaccine or just a stock injection?

As soon as the news was known, the stock markets exploded in a frenzy of increases not seen for months, even in some historical cases. Pfizer announced that its vaccine prototype against the coronavirus, which is already in phase 3 of its trials – the last before starting its commercial production – was effective in a 90%. That is, out of every 100 people who inject themselves, 90 would be protected, which is a great statistic in terms of health, because the 10% that would not generate antibodies would be guarded by the remaining percentage, according to the herd immunity rule.

But after Monday’s stock market rampage, there are already those who ask to warm expectations a bit, especially scientists, who say that there are still several questions that must be resolved. The first, is whether statistically the results of the American laboratory are amplifiable. The 90% effectiveness is only a first approximation to the definitive results, when the level of contagion of the 44 thousand volunteers who are participating in the tests is examined.

And it is with these numbers that the laboratory must go to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and request an emergency authorization to market its vaccine, since the deadlines far exceed the usual ones for an authorization of these characteristics.

Here, an independent group of scientists must validate the efficacy and safety of the vaccine and give credit to lab reports.

The fine print of the production of this vaccine also includes knowing how long your immunity will last. To those who suspect that it could be very short and that two annual inoculations will be required, which would be strictly four, considering that two doses are needed.

The other unknown is its conservation requirements. It needs to be at 70 ° C below zero (your refrigerator’s freezer works at around -20 ° C), which is not easy, especially since it must be transported, for example, from an airport, or in trucks and then stored under special refrigeration.

So regardless of which vaccines are ultimately effective, there are also significant obstacles to distributing them to millions of people in remote locations.

So far, as reported by Pfizer, 94 volunteers were infected with coronavirus and most, said the laboratory, was in the group that received placebo and not the active substance. To achieve stronger results, the FDA mandated that companies only request an emergency use authorization to distribute the vaccine until they reach another milestone – when half of the patients in their study have been observed for safety concerns for at least two months after your second dose. Pfizer expects to cross that threshold in the third week of November.

So it is reasonable to be cautious. Don’t forget that while markets rejoice, coronavirus infections continue to set records.

The question then is: Are investors getting ahead of themselves? “These are the kinds of moves that tend to run out of gas if the underlying data isn’t confirmed quickly,” reflected Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

So, it is not about stopping enthusiasm for this vaccine. It’s just about being realistic.