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The United States will experience a decisive day this Tuesday. Americans must elect their President, in a climate marked by polarization.
Former Barack Obama vice president and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is comfortably high in national polls, but all is not said.
In 2016, practically all the polls gave Hillary Clinton the winner to the detriment of Donald Trump, but – as we already know – it was the latter who ended up taking over the Oval Office of the White House.
“I see these false polls,” said the tycoon at a rally in Fayetteville on Monday, before assuring that “we will win anyway.”
“We had enough with the chaos! We had enough with the tweets, the anger, the hatred, the failure, the irresponsibility, ”Biden retaliated from a meeting in Ohio.
The figures anticipate a historic day, since within 24 hours of the closing of the polls, almost 100 million Americans had already cast their vote, led by early voting: two-thirds of them from votes by mail.
And although the outlook suggests that this year’s turnout could far exceed what happened in the previous process – when just over 137 million voters made it to the polls – there are those who warn that early voting systems could delay results.
Key hours
According to Meena Bose, the executive dean of Public Policy and Service and professor of Political Science at Hofstra University, it is difficult to predict when the results could be known, although she provides tips on how to follow the election process.
During an international activity organized by the Foreign Press Centers of the US State Department -to which BioBioChile had access-, the academic explained that 17 states allow to count the votes cast by post before the day of the election, including Arizona and Florida, both key territories for the aspirations of the candidates.
Another 16 states allow ballots to be counted on the day of the election, before the premises are closed, while another 17, in addition to Washington DC, only allow to do so after closing time.
What time is the deadline to vote in the major states?
The first to close the polling stations are Indiana and Kentucky, both at 8:00 p.m. in Chile. An hour later, Florida (partially) and Georgia will.
At 9:30 p.m. it will be the turn of North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. 30 minutes later will correspond to the second part of Florida and partially Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Texas.
At 23:00 the Arizona stores and the second parts of Minnesota, Texas and Wisconsin will close.
Between midnight and 02:00 on Wednesday it will be Iowa, Montana, California, Oregon, Alaska and Hawaii.
What does the outlook look like in the states Trump won in 2016?
According to what is presented by Bose, the Democratic candidate appears first in practically all the states in which Trump was victorious in 2016, with a difference that ranges between 1.1% and 8% above Trump.
The exception is marked by Iowa and Texas, in both the tycoon appears with the most preferences.
The breakdown goes like this:
Arizona (11 Electoral College votes): Biden + 1.1%
Florida (29): Biden + .7%
Georgia (16): Biden + .8%
Iowa (6): Trump + .7%
Michigan (16): Biden + 6.2%
Pennsylvania (20): Biden + 4%
North Carolina (15): Biden + .3%
Ohio (18): Biden + .2%
Texas (38): Trump + 2.3%
Wisconsin (10): Biden + 6%
Electoral map, according to polls (270 votes are needed to win)
Bose predicts that everything could begin to be defined precisely in the territories where Trump won, but that they could change sides this time.
“President Trump cannot really lose more than two states (…) and if a large state like Florida changes, the path for Trump becomes very narrow,” says the specialist.
“And if Texas shifts toward the Democrats, I’d say the election is practically over,” he adds.
The academic also notes that there are “many paths” for Biden’s victory, but a “much narrower path” for Trump.
The reason? “At this point there are no more states in danger of switching from Democrats to Republicans. The question is if any of the states that voted Republicans change to Democrats, “he says.
Although it seems almost impossible, an eventual tie in the Electoral College will have to be settled by the House of Representatives. In the event that any of the candidates obtain 270 or more votes from said body, they will win.
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