Joe Biden Extends His Lead In States That Will Decide US Elections

In the 2016 elections, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by getting 304 electoral votes (it takes 270 to obtain the Presidency), compared to 227 for his Democratic rival. His victory, surprising for some, was obtained thanks to the fact that he managed to prevail in regions of diverse demographics: in the “Belt of the Sun” (Florida, Texas, Arizona, among others), in the “Biblical Belt” (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi , South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, among others) and in the “Rust Belt” (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, among others), in addition to the states of “deep America”.

But now the reality for the Republican President would be totally opposite, according to the latest polls released by various US media. Trump is in serious trouble in his bid for reelection in Tuesday’s election. And not only because he is seven points below Joe Biden nationally, but because the Democratic candidate surpasses him in 10 of the 12 states that will define the elections. Biden’s lead in those states is looser than Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016 and that Trump managed to reverse at the last minute.

For Donald Trump, the situation is especially critical in six states where he won in 2016 and where Biden could surpass him according to polls: Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio. Not counting the contested states, Biden will start the election with 216 “guaranteed” electoral votes, thanks to Democratic states like California and New York, while Trump has a solid base of 125 electoral votes thanks to the backing of Republican strongholds such as Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Thus, there are 197 votes in dispute out of a total of 538 according to Real Clear Politics.

It is the highest prize of the electoral day and distributes 29 electoral votes. Florida is a swing state (or pendular state) because it does not have its partisan preference marked: in 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush won, but in 2008 and 2012 Barack Obama did.

According to a poll by The New York Times known yesterday, Biden is three points ahead of Trump (47% and 44%, respectively). Of course, in the average of surveys carried out by Real Clear Politics, the Democratic standard-bearer has an advantage of 0.7%.

Trump needs yes or yes to win in Florida. A loss in this state, where he has his golf club and rest residence, would mean that the Republican ruler could suffer a considerable loss of votes in other regions of the “Belt of the Sun”, such as Georgia or even Texas. In case it is Joe Biden who finally wins in Florida, he would have practically assured the PresidencyIn that case, he would need to wrest only a couple of states from Trump where he emerged victorious four years ago.

What if Trump wins Florida? The election would not necessarily be assured, since, in addition to this status, he must win one of the “Rust Belt”.

It is the mother of all battles. This industrial state, which distributes 20 electoral votes, paved the Republican victory in 2016. In those elections Trump won by just 0.7% (44 thousand votes), but now he is four points behind Biden according to the Real average Clear Politics. The New York Times poll, meanwhile, gives the Democratic Party candidate six points (49% and 43%, respectively).

Yes, it wouldn’t be enough for Biden with Pennsylvania alone, that Democrats had won every presidential election from Bill Clinton’s 1992 onward.

Trump won in this state, which distributes 11 electoral votes, in 2016. With the sole exception of 1996 – the year Bill Clinton was reelected – from 1972 onwards, all Republican candidates prevailed without problems.

The New York Times gives Biden a six-point lead in Arizona (49%), while Real Politics averages just one percentage point in favor of the Democratic hopeful.

If Trump wins Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania, in addition to securing Texas, he would reach 223 electoral votes (based on the 125 that he has insured), so he would need to prevail in at least three states of the “Rust Belt”, in addition Georgia (16) or North Carolina (15). But even then it would take another state to add 270.

Instead, if Biden wins in Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona, he would add 276, six more than the “magic number.” In case he loses in Florida, he must get 23 electoral votes to reach 270 among the industrial northeast states, such as Ohio (18), Michigan (16) and Minnesota (10) and Wisconsin (10).

Although this state distributes “only” 10 electoral votes, it is considered key, since both Biden and Trump could add it as a “wild card” in the different summations to get the 270 electoral votes.

The Times poll gives Biden no less than 11 points ahead of Trump (52% and 41%, respectively). “If Biden wins three of the four states included in the poll (Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin) it will be enough to be victorious,” said the New York newspaper. In the 2016 elections, Trump won Wisconsin, a state that had voted for Democrats from 1998 to 2012.

It is known as the “predictor state” of the elections, since since 1964 the candidates who have won in this region have managed to reach the White House. The problem for Trump is that the average of Real Clear Politics polls places him below Biden, although by a difference of just 0.2%. But the trend is that the Democrat goes up and the Republican president down.

According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site, the photograph of the moment shows a tie, since both have a 50% chance of winning.

This state distributes 15 electoral votes and has voted almost exclusively for Republican leaders from 1968 onwards, with the exceptions of 1976 (Jimmy Carter) and 2008 (Barack Obama).

According to Real Clear Politics, Joe Biden has a minimum lead of 0.3%. However, several local polls give Trump the winner, by a margin of three points.

Between 1872 and 1976 (with the exception of Richard Nixon’s victory in 1972), Texas always voted Democratic. However, he began voting for Republican Presidents in every election from 1980 onwards.

Although Trump is a favorite in this state (38 electoral votes) by 2.3 percentage points according to the average of Real Clear Politics polls and with a 66 in 100 chance According to FiveThirtyEight, a surprise is not ruled out.

This, because it is presumed that the advance vote – which already exceeds the 8.9 million who voted in 2016 – is slightly favorable to the Democrats. And as it happens in Florida, in Texas the Latino vote could be key, since the Hispanic population represents more than 40%.

Each of these states distributes six electoral votes. Iowa is pendular (voted for Obama and also for Trump), while Nevada has voted for Democrats in the last three elections. Trump is the favorite in Iowa and Biden in Nevada.