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The comfortable victory that the Approval had last night will not be a guarantee for the unity of the opposition. That is the reading that prevails in the center-left just hours after the historic constitutional referendum, in which that option was imposed by more than 78% of the votes versus the 21% obtained by the Rejection. In the sector they are aware that -beyond the numbers- The challenges that open up in the next 78 days will be as complex as they are decisive.
From October 25 to January 11 (the date on which the registration period for candidates for municipal elections, regional governors and conventional constituents closes), the center-left will have to put aside the divisions and work together to achieve a greater objective: obtain the 2/3 of the constitutional convention.
And to achieve this, they say in the sector, achieving the elusive unity is essential. Otherwise, they will run the risk of “handing over” the new Constitution to the center-right and wasting the historic opportunity to translate their proposals into the new Fundamental Charter. Milestone that, they say, will mark the next 30 years, and also the next government.
Distrust in the sector runs deep and the opposition recognizes that overcoming the cracks that have deepened in recent years will not be an easy task to achieve in such a short time. For this reason, among the opposing forces fear that the defeat that they self-inflicted in the negotiations of municipal primaries and governors, an opportunity in which they ended up divided into two pacts and, as they said, giving the right a greater margin of victory for those elections. Something that is not trivial, since those results have historically marked the prognosis of the presidential elections.
In addition, the parties of the Constituent Unit (DC, PS, PPD, PR, PRO and Ciudadanos), the Broad Front and the Communist Party, will have to find common ground between their distant views regarding the contents that the new Constitution should establish. This matter, in addition, will be key so that the sector can agree on its lists of candidates for the constitutional convention, where they are already divided between achieving a single list or two.
In the sector there is still another pending issue that has already caused tensions within the opposition: municipal negotiation. Although they did not manage to agree on primaries for those elections, there is still the possibility of having agreements by default or defining some candidates through polls.
One of the dilemmas that the sector will have to face in this 78-day race will be whether to go on one, two or more lists to the election of conventional constituents. That, say its leaders, will become the decisive factor for the center-left to have a real chance of getting 2/3 of the constituent body.
The fear of not reaching that goal is already installed. In fact, from the DC to the Broad Front, they maintain that, if these talks fail, the sector will enter the constitutional discussion and the rest of the electoral negotiations on the wrong foot.
Despite being aware of this danger, not all parties have so far adopted the political definition of going on a unitary list. In the former Nueva Mayoría, the PS and the PPD are in favor of this objective, while in the DC and the PR they maintain that the realistic thing would be to go on two payrolls. In the PC, meanwhile, they say that the sector should not be divided into more than two.
“The litmus test of the opposition will be to have a single list for the constitutional convention, or two maximum lists as plan B,” says the president of the PPD, Heraldo Muñoz, while his PS pair, Alvaro Elizalde, affirms that “the Socialist Party is in favor of a unitary list of all progressive forces for the election of the constitutional convention.”
Meanwhile, the radical helmsman, Carlos Maldonado, points out that “a single list would hardly accommodate all the parties, social movements and the independent world of the center-left. I think that two lists would allow a good combination of unity and diversity ”.
In the Frente Amplio, the issue has already stressed the coalition and only the Liberal Party has taken the position of pushing a unitary list. In the DR, on the one hand, they have already addressed the issue and consider that the “dispersion” of forces in the center-left should be avoided, while in the rest of the collectivities of the bloc they still do not face this discussion, but they would be promoting separation on two payrolls.
In these sectors, they argue that a unitary list would be “unfeasible” and that not all opposition forces would “fit” in that effort. In this sense, among those who oppose the idea of a single list of the 12 parties and two political movements that make up the Constituent Unit, the Broad Front, the PC and the FRVS, they assure that it would not be feasible to have a joint initiative by the high number of candidates and diversity of projects.
That negotiation will be crossed by another no less: that of the municipal elections to be elected on the same date. There, the different pacts will compete for regional governments and, therefore, in the sector they do not rule out that any tension in these negotiations will end up affecting unity for the constituent.
Since the beginning of the year, the center-left have been working -separately- on different documents on the content they intend to translate into a new Constitution. With the results in hand, the sector maintains that they should put all these texts on the table and seek common ground between the dissimilar visions of the country that coexist within the opposition.
The center-left has already made it clear during the term of President Sebastián Piñera that they do not share the same principles on crucial issues, such as tax and social security.
That discussion, the same sources acknowledge, could put the center-left under pressure again. During all this time there has not been a common coordination body and only isolated efforts have been made to advance this task. For example, in the summer, the communities of the Progressive Convergence -PPD, PS and PR- held some conversations to start a joint work, but with the arrival of the pandemic, everything was deactivated.
Now, a week before the plebiscite, the FA – in an effort to calm its internal problems and make a gesture to the rest of the sector – proposed a “constitutional plan”, in order to initiate dialogues with the rest of the communities on these contents . So far, the bloc has met only with the DC, but they hope to do so with all their might.
The FA set its “minimums” to be able to reach agreements, which will be key for the sector to achieve an agreement and compete together for the election of the members of the constitutional convention. They expressed their ideals in a document, in which they proposed, among other things, that progress should be made towards a “Social and Democratic State of Law” and “lay the foundations of a new development model” in economic matters.
In the rest of the communities “constitutional teams” have been formed. For example, in the PPD, like the FA, they have proposed that Chile have a “Social and Democratic State of Law” and that the powers of the State be balanced under a semi-presidential or parliamentary system. In Falangism they have also proposed a State of this nature, in which the “principle of solidarity” becomes effective. The PS, for its part, has channeled the content work through the Equality Institute, where figures such as the constitutionalist Francisco Zúñiga are working.
In the PC it has transpired that they would be working on a catalog that would go along the same lines as a document shared by party deputy Hugo Gutiérrez. The change to a “State of Popular Sovereignty and Social Justice”, the creation of the Electoral Power and the elimination of Congress would be proposed in order to have a “plurinational and parity legislative Assembly”. That proposal, they say in the rest of the center-left, would make it difficult to reach out.
Another key point is the drafting of the regulation that the sector seeks to generate as input for the constituent convention. Although the constitutional reform resulting from the November 15 agreement establishes that it will be the conventional ones that must define an operating mechanism, the possibility that this debate may continue and end up delaying the substantive discussion – as has happened in other countries – is a concern in the center left. For the same reason, several of its parties have begun to study and delineate the axes that this regulation should have.
The DC already has its constitutional commission working on it, as does the RD. In other communities such as the PR they have noticed doubts that it is a good idea for them to go ahead in the drafting of a text that corresponds to the mandate and “powers” of the constitutional body. “It can be a double-edged sword,” says one leader. Despite this, others point out that it is necessary to have a proposal since the right wing already has advanced work on this matter.
Pacts by omission or definition of mayoral candidates through surveys. Those are some of the options being evaluated in the opposition to end a conversation that was pending after the failed negotiations for the primaries.
After that DeadpointIn the sector, it was decided to close the door to the possibility of having agreements with governors, an election in which they will compete in three different agreements, but it was decided to postpone the conversation regarding mayors.
Now, after the plebiscite, the opposition will have to seriously address this matter. In some sectors the issue has already been moving slowly. Within the Constituent Unit – a coordination that was formed as a result of the negotiations for primaries – a design for those elections is already beginning to be drawn, a job that was left to the general secretaries of the communities.
In the Broad Front they have transmitted that they are willing to make pacts by default in some communes. On this, in addition, in the bloc they maintain that a series of conversations have already begun between all sectors to convey “the will” to bring positions closer.
Thus, the opposition maintains that this negotiation – and the other challenges – will set a precedent for the last battle of 2021: the presidential election. But also, they say, all these conversations could be stressed by those elections given the high number of possible letters to La Moneda that already sound in the different parties and also those that may arise along the way.
The great dilemma, they say in the opposition, will be how wide the presidential primary will be. If the Frente Amplio and the PC choose to compete from outside or submit to that mechanism to reach the first round with a single candidate from the sector. And beyond the definition of those blocks, some sectors, such as the DC, have already expressed resistance to the fact that Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) – the best positioned card of the center-left in the polls – can be part of that contest. Likewise, it is still not clear whether the eventual FA standard-bearer, Beatriz Sánchez -who will communicate her decision during these weeks-, could go directly to the first round.
