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Experts predict that this morning the dollar will start the day with a rise against the Chilean peso.
The unknown about the reaction of the markets to the plebiscite that was held yesterday will begin to be answered from this Monday, but there is already a word that is repeated among specialists since the first results were announced: uncertainty.
And it is that despite the fact that most investors took for granted a victory of the Approve option over the Rejection option, as it finally happened, the truth is that one of the scenarios that investors feared most ended up, that is, that the victory was overwhelming, with about 60 percentage points of difference between one alternative and the other.
“Indeed, the market was betting on a higher percentage of Rejection. So, I think it is a surprise, in terms of expecting a 70% – 30% ratio in favor of approval or 60% – 40%. Given that, my feeling is that this is bad news for the financial sector. We must remember that the markets, and this is very important, like certainty. The fact that the percentage of approval is higher than expected will help it adds risk to the system, “explains Dominus Capital chief economist Michelle Labbé.
“I am surprised, and I think there will be a negative impact on the markets, the extent to which the Approval was won,” adds Octogone Chile general manager Manuel Bengolea.
The expert, of course, points out that the broad victory of one alternative over the other may mean that it was not only a triumph of more radical sectors, which could calm the waters of investors.
Hard to wake up
How will the markets react to these results this Monday? During the morning, most specialists expect the Chilean peso to start the day with a fall against the dollar, while the Santiago Stock Exchange should also feel the blow.
“The dollar, which ended last week at $ 775, I would expect that at least the first transactions are about $ 10 above that, that is, that the first tips of this Monday are in the order of $ 785. With the the stock market should be something similar. This week we saw the IPSA perform very well, but I think some of that optimism this Monday should moderate, “says Credicorp Capital’s director of trading, Manuel Astaburuaga.
The Manager of Studies and Strategy of Sartor FG, Felipe Bravo, maintains that although investors had already internalized the victory of the Approval, adjustments could be seen in the local currency and in the stock market.
“This was already, in part, incorporated into the performance of national markets that did not show a recovery like other emerging destinations due to the uncertainty generated by any change. Likewise, we cannot rule out that there is a correction mainly in the stock market. and in weight, “he says.
“The dollar depends on many things, because it also varies with what can happen to copper, but taking out the rest of the factors, this Monday you should see an exchange rate rising. They should not be too large effects, because within everything it was on the margins, although a little worse than expected “, says Labbé.
Opportunity
The dissident look is put by the head of Analysis of XTB Latam, José Raúl Godoy, who indicates that today the Chilean peso should be strengthened.
“We believe that the first impact on the exchange rate should be a momentary strength in the Chilean peso, that is, this Monday we should see, in the early hours of this Monday, a drop in the exchange rate and, probably, in the week toward a level of $ 770 or 760, “says Godoy.
The specialist explains that after yesterday’s results a social stability should be seen, which is also valued by the market.
“The market could see that the plebiscite provides an opportunity for our country to channel in a more civilized way the changes that citizens demand. This from this Monday and within the next few days.”
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