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The search for a counterweight to the revitalized power achieved by the Movement for Socialism (MAS) in the last general elections with the triumph of Luis Arce, would be reflected in the dispute that will continue in Congress. Even without knowing the final results, the latest exit polls reveal that the blue party would not be able to obtain the two-thirds necessary for an absolute majority in the plenary session, which would force them to negotiate with the other political forces.
The latest count of the Plurinational Electoral Body (OEP), with 69% of the records scrutinized, indicates that the MAS reaches 51.6% of the votes in the presidential elections, while in each update a greater distance with the second is evidenced place reached by former president Carlos Mesa, who achieved 30.9%. Further behind are Luis Fernando Camacho, with 15.2%, Chi Hyun Chung (1.57%) and Feliciano Mamani (0.50%).
In one of the first interviews as president-elect, Luis Arce told Reuters yesterday that former president Evo Morales – isolated since December in Argentina after his resignation from office – “is not going to have any role in our government.”
According to the partial count, the new Senate will be dominated by the MAS, but it would not achieve the current two thirds, but would reach 18 seats, while the Citizen Community Alliance (CC), from Mesa, 14. We believe, from Camacho, would obtain four.
In parallel, the pollster Ciesmori reported, based on a quick count, that the MAS would obtain 19 of the 36 senatorial seats, a situation that would be replicated in the Plurinational Legislative Assembly (ALP), where until yesterday there were 54 elected deputies out of a total of 130. They would be joined by the 47 legislators from CC, the 28 from Creemos and one from the Front for Victory.
This is a slight drop compared to the 2014 elections, when the MAS won all nine departments and positioned 25 senators and 88 deputies.
According to the La Paz daily Página Siete, this eventual result means that the MAS will have to reach key decisions with the opposition, such as partial reforms to the Constitution, appointments of authorities, constitutional reforms or liability trials.
However, for the Bolivian political scientist Marcelo Arequipa, the fall in the representation of the MAS in the Legislative Assembly will not affect the next Arce government. “Having less than two thirds does not represent a big problem if the MAS obtains a majority in both chambers. There will not be a division or a marked danger as now between the Executive of Jeanine Áñez and the MAS. The party should have learned a lesson in recent years, that the imposition in the ALP is something that has alienated them from the general population. There is a social predisposition for alliances and agreements to be made, for agreements to be reached between the political forces and that should be used by the MAS and put into practice by approaching CC ”.
Along these lines, the MAS spokesman, Sebastián Michel, pointed out in the previous days that the masismo will seek a closeness in CC and not with Creemos, due to ideological differences. Precisely, the local press affirms that in charge of the “work of rapprochement” with other political forces and social sectors will be the elected vice president, David Choquehuanca.
