[ad_1]
ICovid Chile, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its ninth report with analysis and data on the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, which revealed a special concern about the transmission and burden of active cases in the northern and southern areas of the country.
The analysis (see attached file), carried out with information and data obtained up to Saturday, October 3 through an agreement with the Minsal, revealed that a “epidemic light growth”, in which each new case infects at least one person (1.09), which causes the virus to continue to reproduce.
The engineer and academic from the University of Chile, Marcelo olivares, detailed that “the indicators at the national level are stable in terms of transmission, testing and hospital capacity, which suggests bodily containment of the pandemic below critical levels. However, lThe infectious burden is still high and caution must be exercised. “
“The national average indices do not reflect the uneven situation in some regions, such as Los Lagos and Valparaíso, and others where hospital capacity is reaching critical thresholds, such as Biobío and O’Higgins,” said the researcher.
“We must continue pushing to improve the traceability system and maintain precautionary measures to avoid a regrowth as quarantines are lifted,” he stressed.
The ICovid Chile report pointed out that “the behavior of Covid-19 at the national level is very heterogeneous, with regions with high transmission and load of active cases standing out in southern Chile; Magallanes, Aysén, Los Lagos and Araucanía and in the extreme north Arica-Parinacota and Tarapacá. Although with a lower case load, Valparaiso presents a significant increase in the transmission rate. “
Specifically, the highest rates of transmission of the virus are in La Araucanía (1.55), Los Lagos (1.52), Arica and Parinacota (1.47) and Tarapacá (1.44).
“After having presented the highest transmission rates, Magallanes presents the lowest effective reproduction rate of the epidemic (1,034) together with the Metropolitan Region. However, both are with a growing epidemic R effective over 1“, warned the ICovid Chile team.
“The low of Magellan is more uncertain due to the greater variability of the numbers in a small population, the next few days will clarify the trend, “he said.
“The increase in the transmission rate or effective R is ahead of the increase in the burden of disease as shown by Los Lagos and is what could be presented in Valparaíso in the coming weeks, as a result of the increase in transmission in that region, “he predicted.
The report revealed, at the same time, that the number of infected per 100,000 inhabitants remains at 8.1, figure that is eight times higher than the proposed number to ensure lack of refinement.
Regions with higher load of new cases are Magallanes (daily rate of 38 per 100,000 inhabitants); Los Lagos (33.5); Arica and Parinacota (22.6) and Aysén (13.7).
Instead, minors new case loads are in the Metropolitan Region (3.4) and Coquimbo (5.5).
Tests and traceability problems
The positivity of CRP examinations at the country level remains at a similar value to the previous week, with a 5 percent of the tests carried out with a positive result, indicated the ICovid Chile team.
However, they warned that “There are regions where the indicator remains at worrying values”, particularly in the regions of Magallanes and Aysén with 27.66 and 10.3 percent, respectively.
On the other hand, The northern regions such as Antofagasta, Atacama and Coquimbo stand out positively, while in the central zone the Metropolitan Region maintains low positivity values.
At the national level The testing capacity was slightly increased, with 11.64 tests per 1,000 average weekly inhabitants. In the last week, slight declines in the regions of Tarapacá, Maule, Metropolitana, and Aysénobserved the report.
Regarding the indicator of traceability The ICovid Chile team states in the report that, although during the last weeks of August, more than 40 percent of the cases were confirmed within three days, “A sustained drop in the indicator is observed during September, reaching 35 percent during the week of National Holidays.”
The fall in traceability “is mainly due to a decrease in the early consultation indicator,” possibly due to the activity associated with the holiday on September 18, 19 and 20, the study stated.
Therefore, he stated that “It is to be expected that this indicator will rebound: traceability is of the utmost importance in preparation for the plebiscite to be held on October 25.”
Hospital Capacity: Alarm for Biobío and O’Higgins
The hospital capacity, meanwhile, is at “stable” levels, but with some sources of stress, particularly in the regions of O’Higgins and Biobío. “Since those regions have an R factor greater than one, Caution must be taken so that the hospital system does not collapse“asked ICovid Chile.
“The hospital capacity of the integrated care system at the national level indicates an acceptable level of occupancy, with a 77 percent utilization of critical beds. It has been stable in the 75-80 percent range for the past few weeks, “the report noted.
“The fraction of beds ICU occupied by Covid-19 patients borders between 60-65 percent, Although it is high, it has decreased considerably since July to date. The weekly variation in hospitalizations remains stable, with no growth at the national level, “he added.
In particular, it is observed that in Biobío the capacity is used at 87 percent, with 65 percent of beds occupied by Covid patients. The O’Higgins Region also has high levels of utilization, with a sustained increase in recent weeks, the document concluded.
