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Dr. Felix Drexler, virologist and professor at the prestigious Charité University Clinic in Berlin, scientific advisor of the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) and leads delegations that help Latin American governments in their fight against the new coronavirus, spoke with DW on COVID-19. Drexler has extensive professional experience in Latin America, where he also carried out projects to combat Zika.
DW: While in Europe a second wave of coronavirus is registered with the arrival of autumn, in Latin America spring begins and infections in some countries decrease slightly. Is there a relationship between the virus and seasonal change?
Dr. Felix Drexler: In reality, the virus in Europe did not stop circulating. For example, in the first wave, in Germany, we had few regional outbreaks, and now the situation is more difficult to control. It could be said that there is a seasonality of the new coronavirus, if we take into account that endemic coronaviruses, those of the common cold, appear in winter. So the arrival of spring in Latin America could help reduce the transmission of the virus.
The big question is whether this is the main reason for the decline in some countries. In that regard, you have to be careful, because many countries in Latin America are very diverse, in terms of climates and demographics. Countries like Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador or Peru have completely different ecozones within their countries. The climate in the Andes is, for example, very different from that of the Amazon. It is better to analyze by region. For example, the Guayaquil disaster moved after a couple of weeks to Quito. The response of the governments now will have to be with a regional focus.
The German virologist Felix Drexler.
Should Latin America be attentive to this second European wave to imitate and improve the measures that are taken in time?
I think it’s the other way around. In Europe we should see what happened, and continues to happen, in Latin American countries, to take the situation seriously. Unfortunately, in Germany we are having difficulties learning from neighboring countries that are already in the second wave, such as Spain, France or Italy. I don’t think we can now speak of a second wave in Latin America. It is simply a normal, geographical transfer of the first wave. In Latin America there is a first wave that is not over yet. It must be taken into account that many countries in Latin America had an early response unlike others, such as Costa Rica, which was quite successful in controlling at the beginning, but now the situation is the other way around. It is because people are fed up with being locked up and young people feel invulnerable, they go out and get infected.
Another element to consider is herd immunity, which probably causes the numbers to drop, for example, in Guayaquil or Manaus, which were sources of infection. That would mean that much of the population has already been infected and is at least partially immune. In Manaus, Guayaquil or Iquitos, I think that is happening, and it is reflected in the low numbers. We have to continue doing studies and see if this herd immunity is durable until a vaccine arrives to avoid a second wave.
What lessons did the first wave leave for Latin Americans?
First, that there is probably a herd immunity that we are already seeing, but the cost is very severe, if we look towards Guayaquil, Manaus, Iquitos and Bolivia. It is a very drastic and very sad lesson. We always said that we have to learn from each other, but we have to realize that we have to hold on a little longer. There are also parts of the population that are no longer being affected. We learn from each other when we see that there are also severe cases in young people. They get sick less often than older people, but they also get sick. So we continue to learn about the coronavirus.
Latin American countries should better prepare and strengthen their public health systems. Also work on the decentralization of health so that it works not only in the capital. That would be a great lesson, and hopefully it will be part of the Latin American learning. We will see if it is implemented.
Why is it important in the future to combat the “infodemic”, the spread of misinformation about the virus, as the WHO warned, and to prevent politicians from using the pandemic?
This exists in every country in the world. Many people have a hard time understanding the difference between chance and causality. Misinformation and people’s refusal to take the trouble to inform themselves well and seek solid sources is everywhere. Many people get carried away by the easy and scandalous. A part of the Latin American media has always sought scandal. There are people who do not know how to differentiate what is correct from what is false, although the same thing can happen here too. Hopefully there will be a strengthening of the distribution of scientific facts and health by the Government, which is the one indicated for that role. In general, it is ridiculous that a disaster like the current pandemic is used for political career reasons in some countries. Not only from Latin America. America is the worst example there is. And to those are added the conspiracy theorists.
What would you say was the key to German success?
The main reason is that in Germany we were able to test many more people, many asymptomatic or mild cases that are not even tested in Latin America. Also the hospital structure, in Europe in general, is much more robust than in other places in Latin America. We can offer mechanical ventilation to many more people, and much faster. There is a public health system that works well, a little different from those in Latin America. In Bolivia, if someone now had a heart attack, they might die, because there is no room in hospitals. Even if I wanted to and could pay. But the vast majority cannot. In Spain, or in France, the health system exists and pays for it. Not everything is rosy in Europe, but it cannot be compared with Latin America.
In conclusion, it is important not to lower your guard in Latin America, even if spring arrives.
Yes. Transmission is likely to be reduced by the weather, but the virus will not stop because of that, the contagion will not stop because of that. It would be wrong to say: “we have already gone through the worst and the next four months will be calm.” Before it was said that with high temperatures there would be no problems, but then we saw the cases in the Amazon. It was also said that in the high areas of the Andes, the virus was not stable due to ultraviolet radiation, and we are seeing huge outbreaks in those areas. We must be very careful with these conclusions, if not, it is possible that the same thing will be repeated and everything will have to be closed again.
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