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One month before the plebiscite of October 25, everything indicates that participation will be high, despite the fears that the coronavirus pandemic that has marked the process arouses.
According to survey “Labor Barometer: Chile in Times of Pandemic”, carried out between September 3 and 17 by Mori and the Fiel foundation, the results indicate that there will be a higher electoral turnout than the 2017 presidential election. In fact, 59% say that they have already made the decision to vote.
Furthermore, the importance of this plebiscite is confirmed by the fact that 71% of those surveyed think that their vote makes a difference and 67% maintain that it is worth making the effort to vote.
Even despite Covid-19, 50% of those who expressed their intention to vote on October 25 have some degree of fear of being infected, which is equivalent to 30% of the electorate.
Regarding what is at stake, 72% of those surveyed say that Chile needs a new Constitution and the Approve option adds 66% to 15% of the Rejection. Meanwhile, the Constituent Convention rises 9 points from the previous measurement and reaches 51% while the mixed convention drops 5 points to 27%.
Feeling of optimism
The Mori-Fiel survey data is corroborated by a qualitative study developed by Plataforma Contexto, an initiative of the Diego Portales University, in conjunction with Espacio Público, Humanas and the Observatorio Ciudadano.
According to a qualitative study panel developed at the beginning of September by the Subjective consultancy, the prevailing mood of people one month after the plebiscite is “Optimism.” “The fear of contagion by Covid-19, prevalent in the members of the panel, does not limit their high interest and their decision to vote in the plebiscite. They also foresee a massive participation, greater than that of other electoral events, especially of young people and people who have not previously voted ”, indicate the conclusions.
One of the testimonies, from a woman participating in the focus, confirms this: “Indeed, more people are going to vote because it is not a vote that has to do with the logic of political parties, that is what is very delegitimized … as now it is something that came as a forge and happened in the social outbreak of October, I believe that many people will vote ”.
Regarding the results, the study indicates that “the perception of a broad triumph of the I approve option predominates, which would affect a new state of mind, a way out of a situation that is perceived as contained and tense. The same, they estimate, would contribute to reducing uncertainties for business development ”.
However, the focus groups also cast mistrust in the election of an eventual Constituent Convention. “The enthusiasm with which the plebiscite and its result are viewed, does not necessarily carry over to the following period. If the first is seen as the materialization of a citizen process, the constituent election phase is viewed with a certain distrust ”.
Distrust is marked by the perception that there is a lack of spaces of leadership for independents. “There is a prevailing fear that in such a process the leading role will be assumed by the political parties, classified as highly discredited, taking away space from the participation of independents who they see as the best representatives of citizen interests. The participation of independents would be limited by logistical limitations (obtaining signatures) and financing, which would not affect the parties ”, they indicate.
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