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Muriel Ramírez, epidemiologist at the Universidad Católica del Norte who believes that in a few days the number of cases in the Coquimbo Region will increase and that the big problem is the loss of the ability to provide a timely diagnosis when Ovalle’s laboratory goes into recess .
“We are seeing cases that come out positive with a lot of lag because there is a queue of pending exams, and that probably many of them were lost, because the expiration time passed and indeterminate samples come out. Furthermore, we do not know if they were taken again or not. Those people who are waiting or were without results, do not know if they are infected or not, so they can infect their family, they go out, they go to buy. Without that information, no timely decisions can be made at this time. ”
Will the cases begin to increase now due to the crowds of the long weekend of May 1 and Mother’s Day?
“Just that weekend people were left without diagnosing the problem in Ovalle’s laboratory. There was a load of infections that we are not aware of. My main concern at the moment is after learning about two studies, one by Dr. Mauricio Canals, an academic in the Environmental Health program at the School of Public Health; and another from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of the Universidad de Desarrollo, which indicates that the Coquimbo region appears with a fairly high transmissibility indicator and indicates how many people a positive case will infect in a week.
It can be said that the situation is controlled when it is one on one, a positive can infect another person, this is called the control of the plateau of the epidemic, the curve is flat. But right now in the region we have 2.3, that is, one case can infect two more, and thus it is doubling every week. This indicator allows us to go ahead and make timely decisions ”.
What are these timely decisions that should be made?
“My recommendation would be to take a more drastic measure such as a quarantine of the communes of La Serena and Coquimbo, or in certain sectors where there are more numbers of cases. That information not to the handling, but if the regional sanitary authority. In the event that they do not want to do this communal quarantine, because it is a difficult and hard measure that brings social consequences, trade should be restricted and crowds avoided. ”
But the opposite is being done, stores are opening in the malls in the area. What can this generate?
“I find it fatal is where people get the virus. We are seeing 30 to 40 cases, but of those several cases we do not have the diagnosis for the laboratory problem. That is the tip of the iceberg because for every 5 cases we see behind them, we may find 20 asymptomatic. ”
.- Most of the latest cases reported have been asymptomatic...
“Just the week before, inquiries were made in the cases around the positive cases, so we found asymptomatic those who transmit, they do not feel bad about what comes out. Neither are we very disciplined to follow preventive measures such as hand washing, the mask is misused under the nose and they touch their faces. Today the cases are not visible but the infections will appear in two more weeks.
Does the virus peak in two weeks?
“It will start in two weeks, we are out of date with Santiago for about a month. What they are experiencing in the capital with the collapse of the UTI, if the measures are not taken in another month, we will be the same or worse. “
How do you take the mechanical ventilators that our hospitals have to be sent to Santiago?
“I find it terrible, because we are undressing and harming ourselves, we already have a health system in a condition that is not the best and that more equipment is taken to Santiago. If I were an authority I would not send anything, if you put a fan on a person you are not going to remove it later when you need it, the recovery of a patient in most cases takes two weeks and they are just starting. The peak is going to catch us naked, because all the fans were sent to support the situation in Santiago. ”
How safe are people who have recovered from the virus to become infected again and not be a source of infection?
“Just read a study from Spain in relation to this issue, about 85% of people are left with antibodies that protect them, that is, 15% can re-infect. That is worrying because if you had the disease this does not give you security that you will not have it again. If there was a vaccine to be used it takes at least a year and secondly with this ability to make immunity in the body the safest thing that it would have to be like the influenza vaccine that we are going to have to get it every year. It causes immunity for a short time.
It is a new disease that we are learning at the same time that we have a pandemic, something new comes out every day. From the point of view of health policy, we must be less confident and more proactive, not react and less late with decisions. In the area we are at the right time to flatten the curve. ”
Another complication being seen is that health officials are catching it. Can this further complicate the situation?
“Exactly, and that was what happened in Spain and Italy that health personnel began to get sick, and we here do not have a large number of professionals. We have nowhere to get an intensivist doctor or nurse for replacements. Much training is lacking in health personnel, some are very relaxed. The person has Covid-19 until proven otherwise, so patients should be treated. In addition to having all the protection elements, which does not happen on all sides ”.
How do you see the functioning of the Regional Social Table of the Covid-19?
“I am questioning my participation in it, because many of the indications we have given do not take them into consideration. Nor do they share the complete information to be able to guide. Apparently, they are guided only by what they say in Santiago, because some of the agreements we reached a month ago, on certain protocols, nowadays my colleagues pointed out to me that there was a job that left the agreement without effect and that follow what is sent from Santiago ”.
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