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Despite thousands of victims around the world COVID-19group of experts from Stanford University (United States) He postulates that the mortality rate from the virus will not actually be so high, since known cases probably make up only a small fraction of the actual number of infected.
According to the column Andrey Bogan published in The wall street journalScientists studied seroprevalence (a common manifestation of a disease in a specific population) in Santa Clara County, California, April 3-4.
The county is home to about two million people in the heart of Silicon Valley, including San Jose, the third largest city in the state and the highest known case in Northern California.
Thus, the researchers found that the percentage of infections was much higher than 1000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. Preliminary results According to their estimates, from 2.5% to 4.2% of county residents have antibodies to the virus, which means from 48,000 to 81,000 infections, which is 50–85 times the number of known cases.,
Among the conclusions that can be made is that The vast majority of people infected with this disease recover without knowing that they are infected.and that the death rate from infection in the United States could be much lower than authorities expected.
According to these data, According to the authors of the study, in Santa Clara County, the true mortality from infection is somewhere from 0.12% to 0.2%, and not from 1% to 3%. This puts the change much closer to seasonal flu than the initial estimates.
Group of scientists from Cambridge university revealed a new hypothesis regarding the origin of the strain SARS-coronavirus-2known worldwide as COVID-19noting that he was born in September last year and is located not in the city of Wuhan (China), but two thousand kilometers south of this region in the province Yunnan.
According to British analysts, the explanation is that the virus has mutated from the time it appeared until now and remained an animal or human for several months without infection.
Peter Forster, a geneticist at the university in England, published a report stating that “The virus may have mutated into its“ human-friendly ”final form a few months ago, but it remained inside a bat or other animal – or even a human – for several months without infecting other people.”
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This information is part of an essay submitted by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and reproduced in the South China Morning Post, which even details how the virus “It began to infect and spread among people from September 13 to December 7.”
Along with tracking the “null patient,” the researchers tried to reconstruct the first outbreak, although the initial samples from the previous report limited their ability to do so. However, in their new trial, they added a thousand complete genome sequences of strains collected by scientists from around the world.
Through this procedure, they found that Sars-CoV-2 has a 96% identical genetic match with the bat virus isolated by Chinese scientists in southern Yunnan in 2013, almost two thousand kilometers from Wuhan.
In fact, they hint that the virus could spread over the years without causing any harm, right up to its current transformation.
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