Regrowth, terrible phenomenon: Japan, South Korea and Singapore unexpectedly increase the number of cases of Covid-19

Images of hugs, albeit with masks, were seen last Wednesday in Wuhan, where two and a half months of quarantine ended. People took to the streets to celebrate and work. However in others areas of China, cities were returned to isolation, fearing a new outbreak.

This effect is almost certainly expected in the country where it all began. This was announced by Dr. Zhang Wenhong, head of the Covid-19 expert committee in Shanghai: “There is a high probability of a second wave of infections, a pandemic is unlikely to end this summer. It will probably last until next year. “

Singaporeone of the countries that has managed to reverse its infection rates is also Over the past two weeks, he has experienced a resumption of growth, which already exceeds 2,000 infected and 7 deaths.

South Korea, another country, applauded for its mitigation policy, 81 more cases were recorded last Thursday than on the previous day, with growth being steady in recent weeks. According to Center for Disease Control and Prevention In this country, this phenomenon is associated with transmission among medical workers, and not with imported cases, which make up 741 out of 10,237 people.

Japan added 2079 new cases in the first week of April, almost as much as in the previous two months of the pandemic.

Is it possible that in Chile there will be a rebound effect after the completion of the current measures? It’s unavoidable? Is it so serious?

First, it’s important to understand that epidemics end naturally, exposing the majority of the population to the diseaseto form the so-called herd immunity. The number of infected and dead in Chile is only growing, The curve as flat as possible is what experts recommend for a practical and vital reason: many patients destroy the healthcare system in a short time; the same amount for a longer time makes the problem available in hospitals. This happened in Europe, where the beds were not enough for the number of those infected with serious problems, which could be Covid-19 or another disease.

but When the famous curve begins to descend in Chile, the natural fear is that regrowth will occurthe effect of a rebound caused by a weakening of measures taken or simply disobedience of the population, if these rules are respected. If this happens, this will be a serious, alarming situation, because when the pandemic seems to be receding, more people will suffer and there will be new deaths. However, from an epidemiological point of view this will demonstrate that appropriate measures have been taken.

So believe Roberto Olivares, Head of the Department of Infectious Medicine at the Davila Clinic, which explains that the curve “peaks and falls, but since not all people are immunized at the same time, an option is provided for the second wave. If people are quarantined, they delete it, but they are still not vaccinated. There is no doubt that if quarantine measures are relaxed, a second wave will be created, slightly less. What we should try to do is to avoid the number of cases, to avoid so that the system can accept the most serious cases. “

In another way, he explained that if quarantine, social distance and extreme hygiene measures were not defined, the curve would be very vertical, almost the entire population would be infected, part of it would die due to the inability to treat them, and simply there would be no healthy population to feed this process. There would be no phenomena, but the consequences of the initial mass infection would be terrible.

On the other hand, the fact that there is a new wave of patients means that a significant percentage of patients have not been infected before, reaching the desired flat curve.

“The number of cases may increase again if people return to work, open stores … believing that you defeated the virus is the biggest risk“. These are the words of Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Emergencies Program. He said they mean China, but not today or yesterday, but in February: WHO was clear about the next steps before the virus reached the West.

But all in due time. In Hong Kong, they took action earlier than recommendedPeople returned to trust and three weeks after the conclusion was withdrawn, they had to replace it and take more drastic measures. For example, in Japan, Sweden, and other countries, governments only advised the population, and they also experience an increase in cases.

Regarding regrowth in the short term. Whether the situation will be repeated in 2021 is still unknown. how it happens every year with the flu, against which you must be vaccinated every season, because it is known that this virus mutates, a situation in which it is not yet clear what will happen to Covid-19.

“China is now under control, and we have confidence. However, the emergence of a second wave of infections in other countries will mean that we will be under great pressure to prevent and control imported cases, ”says Dr. Wenhong. “Preventing imported cases has become a key challenge in preventing and controlling the epidemic in China. We must drastically limit its distribution across the border, ”Wang Jun, an official at the China Customs General Administration, also told the agency.

Another wave of coronavirus in 2021 was not noticed with such pessimism by Dr. Anthony Fauci of the Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the USA, who assured CNN that “if we have a second outbreak, it will not be bad, because we will have things to do with our benefit how better teams, and we could handle it better. We have treatments that are being tested. and possibly a vaccine, and if a person becomes infected in the first outbreak, he will be immune to the second. “

Dr. Olivares advises: “After the measures are relaxed, people should know that they still need to observe measures of social distance, with a mask, if there are crowds, wash their hands, use gel alcohol, that is, follow with the management of what is called mitigation. The fundamental thing here is testing, testing, and testing to highlight any positive, to avoid very significant regrowth. ”