The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals begin on Wednesday in Lisbon with a battle between Paris Saint-Germain and Atalanta. Unlike previous years of the Champions League, due to COVID-19, this is not a two-legged quarterfinal. This is winner-take-all and advances to the semi-finals.
What fun would it be if the teams that were the only ones could win? We should get a piece of the pie for ourselves, and I have three plays I like for Wednesday’s game that could help us all reach out. I have a game about who I like to win the game (in regulation), like one on the total and a prop for fun. So let’s stop wasting time and getting there.
All chances are thanks to William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Atalanta (+250)
PSG are the heavy favorites in this game, and I understand why. It has a lot more firepower and recognizable names in its team, but many of those big names will not play on Wednesday. Angel Di Maria (two goals, four assists in UCL) has been suspended. Marco Verrati hamstring with an injury. Then there’s Kylian Mbappe, the star of France’s 2018 World Cup title, and one of PSG’s most deadly weapons (five goals, four assists in 446 UCL minutes). PSG will still have Neymar, and that’s a great thing to have, but it’s a hard blow for the team’s attack, no matter how you look at it.
Atalanta also has to deal with its problems. Josip Ilicic has scored 21 goals for Atalanta in all leagues this year, including five in the Champions League, but he will miss another match for personal reasons. That’s a major blow to Atalanta, but this is a team that is constantly attacking from everywhere on the field.
The other factor I like in favor of Atalanta is that they have played. Ligue 1 ended its season in March, and PSG sat out five months before playing a few practice matches and cup finals. Season A was brought back, and when it did, Atalanta found themselves with an outside shot at a league title and playing for a place in next year’s Champions League. There’s an important resting factor to play here with PSG, and we should not overlook how players adapt to playing in empty stadiums. For Atalanta, playing an enormous game in an empty arena has become commonplace. For PSG, it is a relatively new experience.
All this makes Atalanta a worthy play at such a price.
2. More than 3.5 goals (+140)
Which side wins, I expect there will be goals and many of them. After a slow start to playing for UCL, Atalanta have scored 13 goals in their last four UCL matches, including eight in their round of 16 matches against Valencia. Atalanta have placed an average of 1.95 expected goals in the UCL overall. On the defensive side, they are also quite friendly. They also allowed an average of 1.73 expected goals, for a total of 3.68 expected goals per game.
PSG games were just as productive as they averaged 2.09 xG per game. Defensively, PSG were much better (1.0 xGA per game), but that could also be due to an easier signing in group play than Atalanta had.
However, given the typical approach of both teams, and neither side having to worry about a situation for outbursts with tire breakers, I expect both teams to be aggressive on Wednesday. We will see many goals.
3. Rafael Toloi is mapped (+170)
Atalanta play three in a row most of the time, and Toloi is one who often finds he needs to save the day by simply bringing someone down. It is a natural byproduct of an aggressive Atalanta approach that teams often oppose. Toloi has already seen three yellow cards in 540 minutes of UCL action and tied for the team lead with 14 yellows in all leagues (Marten de Roon also has 14, but in 300 more minutes than Toloi). There’s a good chance Toloi will do what he has to do on Wednesday to stop a PSG counter.
So who wins PSG vs. Atalanta? And where does all the bet value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the PSG vs. Atalanta’s money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European football model that is up 13.800 percent.
