The Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, on the additional coronavirus stimulus package, the number of jobs in June and the trade between the United States and China.
The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office expects the economy to “grow rapidly” in the third quarter, as long as taxes and spending “remain in place.”
The estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is for an annual rate growth of 12.4 percent in the second half of 2020. GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2022.
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This forecast updates the provisional projections that the CBO released in May and is the first complete set of projections until 2030 since January.
The CBO sees the unemployment rate peak at over 14 percent in the third quarter, then drop rapidly as production increases in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021.
The unemployment rate is seen to remain above its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2030.
The June jobs report, released Thursday, reported that employers added 4.8 million jobs to their payrolls with an unemployment rate that fell to 11.1 percent.
THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY CREATED 4.8M JOBS LAST MONTH: THESE INDUSTRIES Seen Biggest Profits
After that rapid initial recovery, the economy is expected to continue expanding, but at a more moderate rate that is similar to the rate of expansion over the past decade.
In the first quarter of 2020, the pandemic and associated social distancing ended the longest economic expansion and triggered the deepest recession in production and employment since World War II.
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The agency plans to release its budget projections later this summer.
