With a projected Covid-shaped deficit, a collapsing oil and gas sector, and a province on the verge of bankruptcy over a botched energy project, Canada is at a crossroads.
Is it striving for an ambitious “green” post-pandemic economic recovery plan that goes against the wishes of a number of influential and powerful industries – and not to mention various provincial leaders – or freezes the tenuous Justin Trudeau-led minority government in the spotlight?
The apparently acrimonious departure of Finance Minister Bill Morneau late Monday suggests that Trudeau has made his choice.
During his five-year tenure, Morneau was seen by many Canadians as a conservative approach to environmental spending – and more recently, to Covid’s relief. Trudeau, on the other hand, made environmental promises a central part of last year’s re-election campaign. It was inevitable that the two would eventually get into an accident.
Right-winger Trudeau Chrystia Freeland will now take over the finance portfolio alongside her role as deputy prime minister. As one of the key architects of the new Nafta agreement, Freeland has experience of meeting economic goals with broader social and environmental goals, thus better positioning itself to carry out Trudeau’s environmental promises.
But the way forward will still not be easy., Said Bruce Laurie, president of the Ivey Foundation’s environmental tank, as a member of a task force advocating a green recovery to Covid.
“If you have politicians in three or four provinces that are just emerging from climate denialism, and a system of federation where the provinces at the end of the day have almost full responsibility for environmental decisions, resource and energy, making it a virtually untapped country, “he said.” That’s a bigger challenge than Morneau and finances. “
Canada’s post-pandemic recovery provides a moment of reckoning, one in which Trudeau must decide if he wants to pursue his ambitious green ambitions, even if they come at political expense.
For years, he has been accused of talking from both sides of his mouth when it comes to energy, investing in solar, wind and hydro, but also building new pipelines.
Under the Paris Agreement, Canada promised to reduce greenhouse gases by 20% below 2005 levels by 2030 – a goal that is likely to be impossible to meet with so much of the economy currently familiar with Alberta’s oil sands. It will get even harder as the Trans Mountain, Coastal GasLink and Keystone XL pipelines move forward.
Kyla Tienhaara, the Canadian chair of research in economics and the environment and an assistant professor of environmental research at Queen’s University, told the Guardian that a majority of Canadians still support federal investment in green sectors such as wind and solar. shortage of land.
Furthermore, Tienhaara said that Alberta’s recent economic hardship is not entirely a result of Covid: companies like Shell have been leaving the region for years.
“That is because the oil there is environmentally and economically very expensive to extract. It is the first type of oil that will go into the transition, and the transition is unforgivable. Renewable energy is becoming so much more economically sensible, ”she said.
Laurie has meanwhile briefed key Liberal caucus ministers on ‘his’ five bold moves’ from the task force to ensure Canada’s recovery to Covid is as sustainable and fiery as possible. The reception was positive, he said, and Trudeau is “100% committed” to action on climate change.
The challenge is to clean up the cavalry – and a decision on Morneau is essential for a strong performance, especially in Trudeau’s minority government.
This is the time, Lourie said, for the Liberals to show leadership by setting up an economic model that delivers on the country’s environmental responsibility.
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