Candidates also receive support from Jamaal Bowman, who is longtime Rep. Eliot Engel defeated in the recent primary, and Alessandra Biaggi, who sent in a long-time Albany powerbroker package.
“Just a few years ago, people left me out of the pictures when I ran for lieutenant governor,” Williams said. “That’s a hefty swing.”
Williams – who is running for re-election to a job that serves as a check on executive power – said he has not decided who should return. He was an outspoken critic of the NYPD, and said he would take the lead on bonofides in addition to evidence.
He was one of two dozen interviews POLITICO conducted with politicians, labor leaders and strategists who together paint a picture of shifting political winds and a group of candidates running to keep up with the changes.
The mayoral candidates are still making the usual appeal to the coveted influential peddlers – union leaders, congressional representatives, pastors. The support of 1199SEIU – the large union of health workers who took a risk in supporting De Blasio when he stepped on the package in 2013 – is still seen as a prize. But now people who hope to occupy Gracie Mansion have to navigate a new terrain with people who are not playing by the old rules.
“This is about regular, everyday voters who want something different, who are exhausted by just about every Democrat,” said Camille Rivera, a progressive consultant at New Deal Strategies. ‘They want Democrats who will speak truth with power; they want Democrats who will fight for them every day. “
“Anyone who thinks they can get in the middle of the road in the Democratic primary now has to change their strategy,” Rivera, who does not work for any of the candidates, said.
Politicians scrambled to calibrate after the victory of Ocasio-Cortez, and the ensuing deep blue wave that Ramos and Biaggi delivered to Albany. She began to push for donations of real estate – something she had long been content with – and began asking for comprehensive reforms to the NYPD.
But what would otherwise be a linear strategy to win votes is complicated by an expected desire for a strong municipal manager in a time of deep crisis and voters who, when prioritizing that, want a message of governance over values. Covid-19 laid bare inequality in the health care system, flattened the cultural and tourist sector of the city and left nearly a million people unemployed. Crime is on the rise and budget constraints threaten municipal redundancies.
The city’s business community, barely a force in local elections despite its resources, hopes to influence the conversation.
“There are major concerns about the divisive policies that have characterized the Democratic primary that most [the] company [community] thinking is counterproductive to economic recovery, ”said Kathy Wylde, head of a leading business consortium and gatekeeper for Wall Street City executives. “I believe there will be some effort to try to mobilize greater voter turnout under the theory that this will result in a more centrist approach to the challenges facing the city.”
Jordan Barowitz, spokesman for developer Douglas Durst, suggested candidates invoke links exclusively at their own risk.
“People who run for office in New York City spend more time talking to the Democratic Socialists of America than they do to the business community about getting people back to work,” Barowitz said. ‘What is our concern? The collapse of the New York economy, collapse of the city budget and ability to provide services, high unemployment, poverty. ‘
“To manage the city, especially in a crisis, everyone needs a seat at the table,” he added.
But for all its resources, New York business leaders long ago lost their influence in mayoral races. They are not politically organized and they represent values anathema to many Democrats – especially after the Occupy Wall Street movement. The city’s strict campaign financing laws further limit its viability. And the new 8-on-1 contest in the public funding system for the city’s campaign makes it much easier for candidates to swear by major donors.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Socialists of America have no public plans to support a candidate for city.
In a note to members received by POLITICO, a Queens organizer stressed the need to build DSA membership outside of its Western Queens stronghold and strengthen its internal structure. “To that end, I do not think we have the capacity to support a candidate where we would be the primary source of institutional support and infrastructure this year,” it concludes.
But, whether or not the group supports a mayor hopefully or not, the movement aligned to the DSA now includes tens of thousands of voters who are newly focused on local races.
Prior to the February 14 deadline to change party registration, 52,587 people joined the Democratic Party out of 103,093 changes in the city, according to a memo prepared by an adviser specializing in voting data and trends.
Two-thirds of the new Democrats were previously unaffiliated with each party, meaning they could only vote in general elections, and limited their influence over city races that are largely determined in primaries. Another 18 percent of the new Democrats had been Republicans, according to the memo, which was shared with POLITICO.
All told, Democrats doubled their loss of 32,020 outgoing voters in the previous year, according to the memo, which was prepared several months ago.
“While this is an incomplete picture of the whole state, it points to a strong grassroots effort in key areas where progressive strength has gained and voters under 40 have increased their voting share; as well as in moderate, university-educated centers where democratic registration is also growing, ”the memo concludes.
“There’s a newer section of Democratic voters who are busy, paying attention and informing themselves and they’s a little more anti-establishment and a little more left-wing than the traditional primary voters in New York,” said Luke Hayes , which ran Bowman’s managed campaign.
He said newer voters were concerned about climate change, college debt and health care costs and began voting on local politics after the 2016 election. Even if they are not affiliated with the DSA, they will not be eliminated by the socialist label, he added.
“Post Trump, I think a lot of people were, how did it get there?” Hayes said.
That tension between the organized, incumbent far left and the more traditional forces in the Democratic establishment of the city is shrinking the strategies of candidates. They will have to marry the values of the left with the pragmatism more central Democrats starve, say strategists. That can be challenging in a full field with limited time for applicants to define themselves. Voters are unlikely to vote in the run-up to the presidential election in November, leaving seven months to go until the primary.
Currently, the top tier of the field is divided between three career politicians and a former lawyer de Blasio likely to jump into the race:
– President Eric Adams of Brooklyn, a former Black former leader, has close ties to the county’s Democratic machine, but has seen his election victory diminish in recent years. He is a relative moderator who has unmistakably made pro-gun remarks and pointed out his law-and-order references.
– City Inspector Scott Stringer has deliberately enlisted the support of political newcomers with early incentives that pay them. Ramos, for example, said she is all but sure to support him. He also hails from Manhattan’s influential political network on the Upper West Side, and has made inroads into Black communities.
– City Council Speaker Corey Johnson has a charisma and pride in New York that did him good, but become less important as the city of the city declines. He was the first candidate to publicly refuse donations from managers of real estate. Hy recently emerged from a bloody budget negotiation and is re-evaluated on its strategy direction in campaign season.
Maya Wiley, who serves as the lead attorney for De Blasio and a legal analyst for MSNBC, is Black, would break ground as the city’s first female mayor, and also led the City’s Board of Civilian Complaint Review Board – under the Blasio. Her ties to the mayor – who is under fire from the left for his handling of police protests – are an electoral liability.
– Shaun Donovan, who ran agencies in the administrations of Obama and former Mayor Mike Bloomberg, has found money and hired staff for his own bid. Bill Hyers, who manages the Blasio’s 2013 campaign, and Amelia Adams, who worked for former Councilwoman Melissa Mark-Viverito, have signed her.
Both Johnson and Stringer are counting on the arrival of the vote for ranking, which will make its debut in the city next year. The two Manhattan Democrats dare to win a majority of white liberals and come at least in second place among Black voters, who are important for any election in the city.
Meanwhile, President Patrick Gaspard, one of the oldest and closest allies of Open Society Foundations, has called people by the name of Wiley, according to four people familiar with his entrance. Among his first talks was 1199, where he previously worked as political director before becoming ambassador to President Barack Obama in South Africa.
State Intelligence Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, the Blasio sniper in times of crisis, is thinking of jumping on the bandwagon of her extensive government experience, according to three people familiar with her thinking. Other lesser-known candidates include Dianne Morales, who runs a nonprofit, and Loree Sutton, the former commissioner of the Veterans affair.
Lupe Todd-Medina, a Democratic consultant who has so far not joined any of the candidates, said older Black voters are aware of unusual progressive positions. The divorce, which has played out in nationwide elections, was reinforced by the recent debate in the City Council on how to increase the NYPD’s budget again. Calls to “dilute” the agency – sounded by Protestants following the assassination of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis – were rejected by members of the Council’s Black, Latino & Asian Caucus.
Todd-Medina said the power of Black churches is a cornerstone in local races and a place where moderate votes are still well received. “Technical preachers can’t endorse it, but you know who’s with whom,” she said. “Everyone comes to church, but there is always one person who comes a little more.”
Nevertheless, the emergence of the leftist attitude has survived above Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 upheaval.
“People have been full for a while and in 2018 I think it finally boils over and enough people said they would not take it anymore. “And that’s why we saw a wave,” Ramos said. “This is the first city election since that wave began, and I think it’s inevitable that we’ll have a big impact on who becomes our next mayor.”
This article is part of The Fifty, a new POLITICO series that looks at how state and local leaders are responding to current national challenges, from the pandemic to the economic crisis to the issue of race. More coverage of these issues here.
