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United Nations – The UN was set for a difficult conversation on Thursday. The United States was expected to vehemently oppose a bid around the Iran nuclear deal left by the Trump administration to reintroduce harsh international sanctions on Tehran.
The administration has raised a flagship issue over the scrapping of Iran’s nuclear deal in 2015. Since withdrawing the deal two years ago, the White House has put the Islamic Republic under “maximum pressure” with a fleet of unilateral sanctions. to force them to stop its nuclear program and support of terrorist groups, and to slow down its ballistic missile development.
On Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the UN headquarters to try to begin the process of re-establishing international sanctions against Iran. non-compliance with the regime – a process outlined in the terms of the agreement. But given the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement, say Russia, China and even some of America’s European allies who helped make the deal that Washington rightfully left it now on to call.
“Secretary Pompeo will travel to New York City on August 20-21 to notify the United Nations Security Council that the United States will initiate the process of restoring UN sanctions on Iran,” the State Department confirmed Wednesday.
“Thirty days after Secretary Pompeo’s notification, a range of UN sanctions will be restored, including the requirement that Iran suspend all enrichment – related activities. 13-year arms embargo on Iran, “State Department spokesman Morgan Ortagus said.
In reality, that is not a foregone conclusion – at least not that it will happen so efficiently.
Can the US complain?
The move by the Trump administration to try to get the 2015 UN sanctions against Iran to get “snapback” in place comes less than a week after the US suffered a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council over a resolution that a UN would have extended arms embargo on Iran sets out in October.
Now the administration, led by Pompeo, is claiming US law to file an official complaint against Iran for breach of the 2015 deal, which would begin the process of repealing UN sanctions as part of of the agreement.
But as it did last week, the US will face stiff opposition in the Security Council. Russia and China insist the US cannot present resolutions on a deal of which it is no longer a part. Moscow has called Washington’s attitude “absurd”.
The Trump administration says that although it withdrew from the nuclear deal, it is still a party to the Security Council resolution that executed the deal, and that it gives the right to file the complaint.
How “snapback” works
The US wants to initiate the ‘snapback’, a clause that the Obama administration agreed to when the deal was negotiated, but it is a complicated process.
There are two international legal documents involved: the nuclear deal itself, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the Security Council resolution implementing it, “UNSCR 2231.”
Restoring the sanctions for 2015 requires several steps: First, one party to the deal must file a complaint alleging “non-performance” by another, which the U.S. will do Thursday. Then the relief that the deal gave to Iran (freedom of sanctions) will not be done – unless there is action by the Security Council, in the form of a new resolution, to keep the relief in place and the deal to keep alive.
However, any Security Council resolution to keep the deal in place may be vetoed by a permanent member, and the US is one.
There is no formal procedure laid down in the nuclear deal to determine whether a country that has been withdrawn still has the right to lodge a complaint.
While legal challenges by U.S. opponents and votes to try U.S. rights may slow the process well, given the U.S. veto power on the Security Council and the terms of the nuclear deal, Pompeo will file the complaint once the opportunity arises. is that sanctions will end up snapping back, and the deal will get dirty.
That the US may emerge as the technical winner, but look very lonely on the world stage.
“A rough ride”
France, Germany and the United Kingdom have expressed their displeasure with the noncompliance of Iran and them has dismantled the dispute mechanism of the nuclear deal earlier this year, but they insisted the action was taken in a bid to keep the 2015 deal, not kill it.
Over the weekend, former U.S. ambassador to the UN John Bolton, a longtime critic of the nuclear deal, said in a statement in the Wall Street Journal that, “supporters of the agreement claim that Washington, after he has withdrawn from the deal, has no standing to appeal his terms. They are right. ”
Richard Gowan, UN director for the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CBS News that the US “will put a lot of pressure on other councilors to accept that they have the right to trigger snapback,” but he said the U.S. delegation knew it was, “inside for a rough ride … and they will not get much support in the Security Council.”
Despite support, the U.S. notification on Thursday will advance the “maximum pressure” campaign, and America’s enemies have limited resources to stop it.
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