Six weeks after California’s economy began to shut down, there is cautious optimism that coronavirus transmission is declining, officials said.
If it stays that way, the state may be upside down to curb its second rise of the pandemic.
The potential crest comes after Govin Newsom’s rapid economic recovery in May and early June led to an almost doubling of the weekly death toll over the spring election. California’s cumulative pandemic death toll now stands at about 11,000, one of the worst disasters in the state’s modern history.
But there are now several signs that Newsom’s second shutdown, which began in late June and began in early July, is finally having its intended effect. It can take three to five weeks to begin to see the health effects of stay-at-home orders, and six weeks have passed since many of the state was required to close bars and indoor dining rooms at restaurants, an assignment that it was extended to the rest of the state a month ago.
“While our gains may feel slow and our future remains fragile, our success over the past three weeks has been real,” Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday. “We are beginning to see signs of light.”
The mayor also announced that a coalition of scientific experts, film companies, government leaders and foundations are investigating coronavirus tests at home, in an effort to ‘accelerate science’ so that outbreaks can be identified more quickly.
In Los Angeles County, the effective transmission level of the coronavirus is now about 0.86 – meaning that each infected person transmits the virus to an average of 0.86 other people. Last week, the rate was at 0.91.
“This is how progress is looking,” said Dr. Roger Lewis, who leads the LA County Pandemic Predictive Modeling Team.
Dr Grant Colfax, San Francisco’s director of health, said the transmission rate in the previous days was between 0.95 and 0.98.
And statewide, an ensemble computer model, known as the California COVID Assessment Tool, estimates the total transfer from California to California at about 0.96.
To be sure, not all counties are doing well. The state model estimates that Alameda, Sonoma, Placer and Inyo counties are seeing an increasing spread of the disease.
But hospitalizations are also falling in many regions of California. Nationwide, the average number of people hospitalized at the end of July seems to be high, when an average of nearly 7,000 people were hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infections over a seven-day period; by Wednesday, that number had dropped to 5,710.
Deaths, however, have become faster in recent weeks; in fact, more than 62% of coronavirus deaths in California have occurred since Memorial Day.
For the seven-day period that ended Monday, 969 deaths were reported in California, the largest weekly death toll since the pandemic began.
It is possible that the number of new COVID-19 deaths may have peaked, but it is probably too early to know for sure. By Wednesday, the seven-day average of daily deaths was 134, an improvement from the previous week, when the seven-day average hit 144, a record high.
“We are turning the corner on this pandemic,” Newsom said Wednesday.
The governor expressed optimism about the trend, but decided to avoid a reopening that would repeat previous mistakes. Newsom began, under pressure, to reopen companies in late spring before meeting its own benchmarks for safer restructuring.
“The worst mistake we can make … is to dash 90 yards, where we think we have this and we’re going away, and we’re going back to the things that were once,” Newsom said Wednesday. . “And therefore we must be very careful and very conscious.”
Newsom said that as the economy recovers, it will be implemented “with much more focus, much more intention and more intentional thinking” to educate people on how to reduce the spread of the disease.
“We need to keep our wait,” Newsom said, “and we will need a proportionate public awareness and enforcement campaign.”
In LA County, Barbara Ferrer, director of the Association for Public Health, said Wednesday that the sickness rate was still so high that colleges and universities should remain largely closed to personal instruction until sickness levels continue to fall, with limited exceptions such as lab work or student arrangements. t will be part of the essential labor force.
“The very nature of the way colleges and universities work creates a significant risk of COVID-19 outbreaks,” Ferrer said.
Social gatherings and outbreaks in the workplace caused a significant increase in the spread of disease after the economy opened in May and June.
A government analysis of all 188 documented coronavirus outbreaks in San Diego County showed that the total included 61 in restaurants as bars, 45 in various businesses and 18 in health care institutions. Ten outbreaks occurred in government institutions, nine in residences, eight in gyms, seven in faith-based institutions, six in food processing facilities, six in shopping malls, five in hotels or resorts or spas, and four in kindergartens.
LA County has reported 30,827 new cases of coronavirus in the last two weeks, amounting to 305 new cases per 100,000 residents. The province will have to reduce that number to 200 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a period of two weeks before local officials can consider opening some primary schools, and a rate of 100 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants will be necessary for a further reopening. of the economy.
Ferrer said she did not know when LA County would reach those levels, but said it was possible; New York City has had a rate of about 50 cases per 100,000 residents over the past two weeks, she said. Elsewhere in the world, with a “really compounded effort, that rate has dropped and dropped significantly,” she said.
Yet challenges remain.
LA County has filed a lawsuit seeking the closure of a Sun Valley church, alleging that Grace Community Church of the Valley began holding worship services on July 26. Newsom ordered a ban on worshiping indoor worship services in the most severely affected counties July 13; services for outside are still allowed.
Provincial officials said videos posted by religious services this month show conventions gathering without wearing masks or staying at least six feet apart. The church issued a statement saying, “Obeying would be disobedience to the clear commands of our Lord.”
Some of the larger outbreaks in LA County include those identified at 10 UPS workplaces in LA, Bell, Gardena, Vernon, Cerritos, Sylmar, Van Nuys and elsewhere in which 84 workers tested positive; and at the SoFi Stadium construction site in Inglewood, where 77 workers tested positive.
By Trojan Battery Co. in Santa Fe Springs, 61 workers at two workplaces tested positive; three were taken to the hospital, and one worker died, LA County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis.
Cases remain high in Southern California. San Bernardino County has reported 350 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days; Riverside County, 328; Ventura County, 211; Orange County, 207; and San Diego County, 155.
But to dramatically reduce new infections, everyone must wear masks in public, businesses must comply with new coronavirus health and safety rules to protect workers, and residents must stop hosting and attending parties, officials said. Young adults are becoming increasingly infected and are being hospitalized, a pattern seen in California.
“In June, the case rate among the young really started to pick up,” said Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer.
The mayor of San Francisco, London Breed, said she wishes she could have a party to celebrate her birthday Tuesday, but it is clear that many people who are infected have contracted the virus at family gatherings, parties and other events.
So for her birthday, “I will distance myself socially and talk to people on Zoom,” Breed told reporters. ‘And we have to do that. Imagine if we all did our part. ‘
Times staff writers Iris Lee and Taryn Luna contributed to this report.
