California was once a coronavirus success story, a national example of how other states could fight the virus and win.
The country’s most populous state was the first to issue a stay-at-home order, and it quickly created a robust contact tracing operation. While the virus was ravaging hot spots on the east coast, California managed to dodge a major catastrophe.
In the spring, when other states began to lift their orders to stay home, the governor. Gavin newsom
Gavin Newsom Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Rep. Rodney Davis says the most important thing the White House can do at COVID-19 is send consistent messages; New Cases in the US Exceed 50k for the First Time Man dies a day after saying he contracted COVID-19 due to his own “stupidity,” as the family blames the reopening rate. USA Over 50,000 for the first time in a single day MORE (D) repeatedly emphasized a cautious, science-based approach to reopening.
But now California is in trouble. As the state joins Arizona, Texas, and Florida as one of the worst coronavirus hotspots in the country, state leaders and public health experts say it should be seen as a warning.
“We crushed the curve in California. What we didn’t do was lower it,” said State Senator Richard Pan (D) in an interview. “Then I started opening things up again, and then, of course, now we have an upward turn again.”
Daily coronavirus cases have skyrocketed, averaging 6,000 new infections per day in the past week. The percentage of positive tests is the highest in months, with the largest increase in the last two weeks.
Hospitalizations have increased 51 percent in the past two weeks, and ICU admissions have increased 47 percent during the same period.
After being proactive in issuing a state order to stay home, Newsom let the 58 individual counties make their own reopening decisions, beginning in early May.
His plan initially allowed limited retail stores to open with capacity and physical distance requirements, but within a matter of weeks he quickly allowed counties to open restaurants, gyms, nail salons, and religious services.
In many cases, according to experts, that flexibility likely allowed local governments to rush and reopen before they were ready.
Pan, a practicing pediatrician, said that when the messages went from the importance of staying home to reopening businesses safely, people took it as the green light to reopen regardless of local conditions.
“And now we are acknowledging, unfortunately, the consequences of that,” Pan said. “It doesn’t take a large number of people to be accommodating. All it takes is a small percentage of people, be it political or for other reasons, and they’re not following the guidelines, so the disease is going to spread. “
Local epidemiologists said the reopening likely contributed to some of the spike in cases, but there are other reasons, too. California has the fifth largest economy in the world, and the state’s sheer size means that each county has its own unique challenges in managing the virus.
George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California at San Francisco, said the problems with California’s large and diverse population are a window to what’s happening across the country: virus outbreaks in San Quentin prison, Latino essential workers living in shared housing units in Imperial County and youth in Los Angeles flooding bars and beaches on Memorial Day weekend.
Rutherford said that because of that size and diversity, Newsom had to let counties make their own decisions.
“What happens in the extreme northern counties of California and what happens on the Mexican border is completely different,” said Rutherford. “So you really have to … address this, at least regionally. There is a lot of territory to cover.”
Still, Rutherford said the increase has taken people by surprise.
“We knew there would be cases when we reopened. We knew there would be a tradeoff between the economy and the disease. I don’t think anyone has realized that it would be so pronounced during June,” he said.
Art Reingold, chief of the UC Berkeley School of Public Health Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, said the personalized approach to reopening was the best option, but also the most complicated.
“I think the governor did not have terribly good options in terms of trying to set goals at the state level and enforce them equally in very different counties and situations,” said Reingold. “You know, I don’t know if any governor could have done it successfully.”
Newsom has begun cracking down and re-imposing restrictions, but there is concern that it is too late.
On June 18, Newsom imposed a mask requirement statewide. On July 1, he took the strictest steps yet and ordered that all closed nonessential businesses be closed in 19 counties across the state, a move that affects more than 75 percent of the state’s population.
As a way to control crowds over the July 4 weekend, Newsom will close all parking lots on state beaches throughout Southern California and the Bay Area.
“I deeply respect people’s freedom, their desire to return to the way things were, but I cannot impress them any more, our actions have an impact on other people,” Newsom said.
The restrictions will remain in effect for at least three weeks.
Reingold said the restrictions may help, but the final impact is limited because the virus is so widespread.
“The value of these measures is much more likely to be successful when there are relatively few infections, and much less likely to be successful when there are many more infections,” said Reingold.
“And unfortunately, we are now at a stage where we have a lot of people infected with this virus in the United States and California. So I’m not sure how long we can wait for a successful intervention at this point,” he added.
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