You will not find five more meaningless words in sports than “I’m not a doctor, but …” They are a foreign hedge against insight knowledge, the justification for decisions based on expertise that should not be necessary. It does not take a doctor to perform a risk-reward analysis. It does not take a doctor to use common sense.
And it does not need a doctor to see Luka Doncic struggle to make it up and down the court in the fourth quarter of Friday’s Game 3 between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks. The sensation of the second year spread his left ankle late in the third quarter, limping off the court without showing any ability to put weight on the hit foot, and somehow making it back to the floor less than four minutes game time later. Carefully, it only took about two minutes before he shook off the floor for the rest of the night. The pain was too great to play through, which begs the question: Why even try?
The easy answer is that Doncic, and the Mavs, wanted to win the game. A victory would have brought them up 2-1 in the series, and they halfway took it to one of the biggest uprisings in NBA history. But that probably did not happen, Luka or not. Dallas trapped Los Angeles by 17 points when Doncic returned to the game, and ESPN’s probability metric gave the Mavericks only a 1.6 percent chance of winning at that moment.
Even if they managed the comeback, they would still be underdogs in the series. The Clippers have been two games without starting point guard Patrick Beverley. Montrezl Harrell is still getting back in shape after leaving the bubble. They will only get stronger as the series progresses. And taking down the Clippers would hardly allow Dallas to position as favorites at championship. They would likely enter the Western Conference and NBA Finals finals as heavy underdogs, thanks to their No. 7 seed. The general stakes here were low. Sitting Doncic meant just forgetting a game, a series and a season away, and they probably knew how to lose anyway.
Playing for him offers the meager possibility of an overtime that probably would not have changed the overall trajectory of the team, but created the risk of a further injury that would have torpedoed it. Doncic already had a history of ankle problems (though on the right side instead of the left). He is also 21 years old, an MVP candidate and the key to unleashing a decade or more of controversy for Dallas. The Mavericks gambled that at a 1.6 percent chance of winning the third game of a first-round pick.
They can justify that decision because they have doctors. They know Luke’s general medical image better than the outsiders who want to protect him the most. But Golden State medical staff managed to repair Kevin Durant’s body just as well. How did that work out?
Health has not exactly been a guarantee in the bubble. By jumping five months of rest in the playoffs in a matter of weeks puts players in danger. Soft tissue injuries are typically the result of overloading the body. Imagine a scenario where Doncic, unable to put weight on his left leg, suffered a more debilitating injury by compensating on the right side. A potential Dallas dynasty could have lost more than 1.6 percent in the first round.
Perhaps Dallas medical staff decided that such a risk was minimal, but the rewards were undeniably smaller. This was not a Game 7 of the Finals. This was the third in what could be hundreds of playoff games Doncic plays for the Mavericks. No team should ever risk the opportunity for such a meager price. Dallas should know that. Almost two decades ago, it found itself in a very similar situation.
In Game 3 of the 2003 Western Conference Finals 2003, Dirk Nowitzki dislocated his knee. He sat out for the rest of the series despite protests from team owner Mark Cuban. Don Nelson refused to risk Dirk’s future on a single series. Nowitzki struck out playing another 110, mostly injury-free playoff games for Dallas, and won the franchise the 2011 championship. He might have swung that 2003 series against San Antonio in favor of Dallas, but one year is not worth nearly a decade. That is not a single game.
And it does not take a doctor to know that. Whether Doncic insisted on playing, the coaching staff grew too jealous to seek an ultimate meaningless profit when the organization as a whole decided to take the plunge, someone had to stand up and remind everyone involved on the line by putting him back in the match. No doctor needs to know that a healthy Luka Doncic is the one-major thing the Mavericks can take from their bubble experience. That had taken nothing but common sense.
