LONDON – Britain’s protracted divorce proceedings with the European Union entered a make-or-break phase on Saturday, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President agreed that the two sides were divided enough to set a goal for a final settlement.
After a video call between Mr. Johnson and the commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, the announcement was less than a success, but it was not a breakdown. Negotiations for a long-term trade agreement, which has been based indefinitely for months, will now intensify as the two sides clash to meet the December 31 deadline to put the deal in place.
The two leaders agreed that “progress has been made in recent weeks, but there have been significant gaps.” They instructed their key negotiators to work harder to try to overcome those obstacles. “
Britain formally left the European Union in late January. But under the terms of its withdrawal agreement, it is part of the block’s customs union and single market until the end of the year when both parties make permanent adjustments on issues such as fishing quotas and state aid to industries.
While issues of contention are technical and even tedious at times, their profound impact on Britain’s future relations with the European Union. The risk of a breakdown is as great as it was this time last year, when negotiations on the withdrawal agreement hit the same moment of truth.
Mr. Johnson’s intervention in the negotiations is important, if expected, to shift from executive-level negotiators to top leaders. In addition to the Prime Minister and Mrs. von der Lane, the role played by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron will also be more dependent.
Everyone’s political calculations are very different. Mr Mac Krone’s turnout has skyrocketed in recent weeks as French voters have refused to handle his government’s coronavirus epidemic. It faces elections next year, which raises questions about how much land it would be willing to give Britain on politically sensitive issues such as phishing rights.
In the twilight of her long tenure, Mrs Merkel is determined to secure her legacy as Europe’s de facto leader. A bitter rift with Britain, especially when Germany holds the presidency of the European Council – the bloc’s executive arm – will boost the record and seem determined to avoid that outcome.
“You see, Merkel is very cautious but constructive now and the Macron team is more aggressive and hostile towards the UK,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a former European Commission economist who has now become a political risk analyst. Consultancy Eurasia Group.
Yet even Ms Merkel has shown impatience with what many in Europe see as Britain’s unnecessarily provocative tactics.
Mr Johnson recently introduced a bill that would override parts of the withdrawal agreement relating to Northern Ireland. Its own allies admitted it would be a violation of international law, and the European Union took legal action against Britain last week.
“We have a definite setback with the breach of the agreement we reached on Northern Ireland,” she said. Merkel said in language on Friday that for her, it was clearer than usual. “It’s easy for me to say: it’s bitter.”
Over time, the British are pushing for a chance to raise their case against the political food chain. Last year, Mr Johnson successfully broke the agreement on Britain’s withdrawal in talks with then-Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, and is confident he can do so again.
Things are much tougher this time though.
The most contentious issues in last year’s withdrawal agreement mainly affected one country, Ireland, while these trade negotiations have a much greater impact. Big economies like France and Germany are at stake, and they will not cross the red lines.
Major sticking issues include fisheries, with most analysts saying the EU would have to accept lower quotas for British water catches in order to get a deal. Although the new quota may be phased out, more time is given to adjust the fishing fleet of continents.
At the same time, Britain must address the thorny issue of state aid.
The European Union fears that an unscrupulous British government could subsidize its companies and throw goods into the continental European market. The group instructs the British on which no-confidence rules it will apply domestically, and agrees on a mechanism for resolving disputes with the EU.
However, Britain sees it as a matter of national sovereignty. Mr Johnson’s powerful adviser, Dominic Cummings, wants Britain to have a free hand in promoting artificial intelligence and other high-tech industries.
Yet the epidemic has increased pressure on Mr Johnson to compromise.
Not only has the British economy suffered a major blow, but there has been widespread criticism of its handling of the epidemic. With his own Conservative party legislators increasingly rebellious, Johnson will run a sharp political risk if he approves the absence of a Brexit trade deal to create chaos at Channel ports in January.
In an interview with the BBC on Saturday before his call with Ms von der Leyen, Mr Johnson struck a more optimistic tone when he spoke openly about a Brexit deal in recent weeks.
The ingredients for the deal were “all there,” though, he added, “it’s normal-sensitive for our friends and partners.”
Mr Rahman said he expected more fireworks in the coming weeks, and he did not rule out any breakdowns in the talks. But he predicted that in the end, Mr. Johnson would compromise to get the contract.
Mr Rahman said, “The world around him is swallowing up, and he needs to win on Brexit.”
Steven Erlanger The report from Brussels contributed.
