Barely a year later, the right part of that optimism has turned to despair and agitation. Although Johnson won a landslide victory in the election by expelling the UK from the European Union, there are fears that the prime minister’s desire to end the Brexit story on a personal note of victory has clouded his thinking.
In a prepared remark sent ahead of Johnson’s speech ahead of the 8th round of EU talks starting on Tuesday, the prime minister called for an agreement with Europe by October 15. “There’s no point in thinking about timelines that go beyond that point. If we can’t agree until then, I don’t see a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on,” Johnson said. .
However, some Eurosceptics are concerned that Johnson may be claiming a great victory, avoiding the economic consequences of a deal cliff, giving way to a waiver to get a last-minute deal. Others worry that the recent collapse is a theater, embracing any concessions designed to show such a feat of diplomacy to any contract.
There is some basis for this fear. Johnson’s previous deal with the European Union came months after it announced it would renegotiate the May deal or leave the EU without one. The clock ticked as no progress was made on the former; The latter felt inevitable. Suddenly, just 14 days before the deadline for a no-deal in Brussels, a deal was struck – a deal that looked as terrible as a trip through May, in which many Eurosceptics, including Johnson, hated and voted.
Johnson’s migratory position on Brexit was less important at the time, as the deal would leave only the UK to the EU, not future more permanent relations. The fact that Jones held his nerve and stood in front of Brussels was enough evidence for many Eurosceptics who wanted to do the same later.
Those who have worked in government recently can see how this result could become a reality. David Davis, a longtime Brexitier and former Brexit secretary in the UK, thinks there are “three options that are equally possible”: no deals, too many micro deals and free trade agreements. “If we are to reach option three, then many such public demands and counter-demands will need to be made to facilitate a compromise.”
Tim Montgomery, who previously worked as Johnson’s mentor, says: “They like to be the ones who pull the rabbit out of the hat at the last minute, which will suit them perfectly right now. They don’t run marathons, they run sprints. , So don’t have a long-term strategy. This is a last-minute compromise on Brexit that has the potential to be claimed as a victory. ”
And Anand Menon, a professor of international politics at King’s College Ledge London, says: “At the moment it looks like a real success, if it gets any kind of deal regardless of the content. It’s just like talking about the possibility of a deal. Seems impossible. ”
Members of Johnson’s Conservative Party see if this approach may appeal, even if it offends Brexit fundamentalists in his party. “Brexit will be a row with the Purists, but if they declare victory they will keep up with a majority of Tory MPs supporting the leave. Not to mention the former Labor voters in the North who voted for Johnson. 2019, which is less pure than the Conservative levers. The recent Conservative cabinet minister said.
The calculation that Johns could get into a public Brexit victory with minimal risk of his backbenchers retreating is what the Brexit fundamentalists who supported him say.
“A lot of MPs are expecting big concessions to make a deal. They are hesitant to call the government in public but are working hard behind the scenes,” said a senior Conservative working in the party. On record. “I think the government is talking about making a deal with Brussels to reassure radicals who are adamant that they have the benefit of the doubt when they make concessions.”
Unfortunately for the government, here were the toughest Brexiters. “Now these things can’t be hidden. The government has set itself so bigoted on sovereignty, so I don’t see how they can pull the rabbit out and expect us to be happy. We’ve all become experts at this. Stuff,” The cabinet minister says Joe is currently lobbying the government on Brexit and did not want to be named.
A third former Conservative cabinet minister and leading Brexiter said: “A lot of people are sitting in small to large parts that are probably blown away by what is believed to be a betrayal, possibly focused on an event like relaxation.”
Eurosceptics on the edge
The word betrayal is important. Johnson faced public criticism from Conservative lawmakers for economic decisions made during the epidemic that do not seem to be very strong on the surface. The third former minister explained that some MPs were “very worried about not knowing what’s going on in the prime minister’s head,” and many believed he was trying to get out of trouble and stay in order. Appeal to its new voters instead of the traditional Rs. They added that this perceived desire to move beyond economic means has long been pushing Eurosceptics to the brink.
When CNN When someone approached a longtime Brexit campaigner to ask about any betrayal, he erupted: “I don’t care what other MPs say and I don’t see why you gave reporters reason to speculate. People voted on leave. The order and the Prime Minister have made it clear what we will do. I have nothing more to say on this matter, “before hanging.
The senior Rs. “If you’re part of the hardcore, what do you do when it comes to Parliament? You can vote against it, but then you have to be whipped and forced to sit outside after Brexit. After all, it’s probably a good happy ending. To be a part and say you’re the right side of history rather than ‘Debbie Downer’, no matter how much you hate this deal. “
This can be psychoanalytic thinking. Johnson’s former enemy, Nigel Farage, recently wrote that no final deal would be the “true freedom” he had envisioned. And history tells us that Farage is very effective in snatching angry voters, forming a powerful political movement, and hurting the Conservatives badly.
There is still a long way to go before Brexit ends. The European Union believes that a deal needs to be agreed by mid-December 31 to be ratified by December 31, giving Johnson plenty of time to reassure in one way or another.
It is worth noting that Downing Street rejects these claims as speculation, despite difficulties in negotiations. A senior adviser to the prime minister said: “We are serious about leaving without a deal. We are not happy. If the EU does not take a more pragmatic approach to state aid and fisheries issues, we will have to leave. On Australian terms. Insisting on copying rules that contradict our position as an independent nation. ”
And there are plenty of Conservative MPs who say their leader will act in the best interests of the UK when it comes to Brexit, whether or not he reaches a deal with Brussels.
However, Johnson’s inner circle becomes tighter and his strategy becomes more secretive – tending to come when negotiations reach a crescent – Johnson’s former loyalists who have long dreamed of true independence could be very upset next week. .
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