LONDON – Barely six months after Britain broke away from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is increasingly consumed by attempts to stop the burglary of restive parts of the United Kingdom.
On Friday, Mr Johnson sent his popular Treasury chief, Rishi Sunak, to Scotland to curb nationalist sentiment that has been growing there in recent months. Another top minister, Michael Gove, went to Northern Ireland with almost $ 500 million in aid to help frustrated companies deal with new controls on shipped goods.
Experts have long predicted that Brexit would strengthen centrifugal forces that would pull the union apart. But in Scotland, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated these forces, forcing Mr Johnson to create a widespread – some say too late – charm attack with the Scottish public.
The situation is less acute in Northern Ireland, where reunification with the Republic of Ireland still seems a long way off. Yet business people there, including those loyal to London, worry they will be hurt by an expensive, bureaucratic trading system between Northern Ireland and the rest of the union.
Mr. Sunak, who as Chancellor of the Exchequer is coordinating the British government’s economic rescue effort in response to the coronavirus, said 65,000 Scottish companies had borrowed £ 2 billion ($ 2.6 billion) to survive the lockdown. The pandemic, he said, had confirmed the continuing value of the union.
“When I look at the last few months, this is a good example for me of the union that is working really well,” Mr Sunak said after setting up a factory in Glasgow that makes generators. He raised questions about independence, saying, “I do not think it is time now to talk about these constitutional issues.”
The problem is: a majority of the Scottish public does not agree. In an average of recent polls, 52.5 per cent of people say they would vote for Scottish independence. That’s a dramatic swing from the 2014 referendum on independence, when Scots voted to stay in the union with 55.3 percent to 44.7 percent.
It is also the first time that the polls have consistently shown a majority in favor of dropping out, said John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and Britain’s leading expert on polls.
The figures have clearly alarmed the government. Mr Sunak is the fourth cabinet minister to visit Scotland last month – a list drawn up by Mr Gove and the Prime Minister himself.
“The UK government is concerned enough that it is sending people north on a regular basis,” said Professor Curtice. “London may have only woken this up in the last few weeks, but it’s a long-running story.”
Nationalist sentiment was already building last year, Professor Curtice said, when Britain hammered out a withdrawal contract with the European Union. Scots voted overwhelmingly to stay in the European Union during the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Feelings of pro-independence were heightened in Scotland during the pandemic, as many people believe that Scotland has done a better job of managing the crisis than the Johnson government in neighboring England. The death toll from England per capita is higher than in Scotland, and more cases remain.
Under the conditions of limited self-government in the United Kingdom, Scottish authorities are responsible for matters such as public health, while the British government deals with immigration, foreign policy and, more importantly, the rescue packages of Mr. Sunak to protect those who lose their jobs in the lockdown.
Scotland’s overall performance during the pandemic is open to debate; it is far smaller and thinner populated than England. Some epidemiologists say that it ranks in the middle of European countries in dealing with the virus.
However, Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is far more popular in questioning than Mr Johnson, and her Scottish National Party is set to run a huge mandate in next May’s parliamentary elections. That would make it harder for Mr Johnson to refuse a Scottish question to hold another referendum.
Political analysts say the Scottish National Party’s strategy has long been clear: calling on people who voted to stay in the UK in 2014 but also to stay in the European Union two years later.
“To wait until the Scottish elections are postponed was remarkably naive,” said Anand Menon, a professor of European politics at King’s College London, referring to Mr Johnson’s attempt to woo the Scots. “The question is whether this horrible activity is too bad, too late.”
Mr Gove, who holds the title of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, faced another dilemma in Northern Ireland. Britain’s development agreement with the European Union, analysts said, actually helped ease the tension of nationalist work, as it maintained an open border between north and south on the island of Ireland.
But the deal came with a trade-off. Instead of Ireland, the border will effectively run up and down the Irish Sea. Northern Ireland, although part of the UK customs territory, will follow a labyrinth of European Union rules and regulations, which means that goods shipped from England, Scotland and Wales require customs controls.
Mr. Gove said the UK government would pay £ 200 million ($ 260 million) to cover the cost of this paperwork for businesses and £ 155 million ($ 202 million) for a new “light touch” technology system to streamline the process.
“I do not accept the argument that there is a border under the Irish Sea, because companies in Northern Ireland, people from Northern Ireland will continue to have totally unhindered access to the rest of the UK,” he said. . Gove during a visit on Friday to a carpet factory in Portadown.
His words, analysts said, were primarily designed to appease trade unions, who are worried that Brexit will distance Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and hasten its eventual reunification with the Republic of Ireland. However, in associating with the Unionists, he said he would antagonize nationalists, whose emphasis was on strengthening Northern Ireland’s connection with the south.
“Michael Gove is a smooth talker, but nationalists would not believe a word that would come out of his mouth,” said Monica McWilliams, an academic and former Belfast politician. “Those who voted against Brexit will not be persuaded by him, even if he hands out pieces of candy.”
In a week marred by the death of John Hume, the Nobel laureate and architect of the Northern Ireland peace process, the reunification of Ireland is not a direct concern for the Conservative government of Mr. Johnson. But in both countries, the prime minister opposes building pressure.
For some analysts, it exposes a contradiction at the heart of Mr.’s unreliable drive. Johnson to leave the European Union.
“You had a Brexit that did not take into account the wishes of people in Scotland or Northern Ireland,” said Bobby McDonagh, a former Irish ambassador to Britain. “But that exists in parallel with a Conservative party leading the UK.”
