“My team and I are excited to go back to work,” he told CNN about his place called Cabanna, which serves sandwiches, sandwiches, and cocktails. “It will be different, with all the precautionary measures we must take, the distances from the tables, the number of people sitting together, but it feels good to be working again.”
Assy said it barely avoided bankruptcy, laying off four of its 11 employees and freezing or reducing the wages of the remaining seven when Rio de Janeiro ordered the closure of all companies, except essential ones, in March, in an attempt to stop the Covid-19 spread.
“Another month like this, and it would have to close entirely,” he said. “Today I am more afraid of staying home and not working than of the coronavirus.”
Like many cities in Brazil, under pressure from rising unemployment and a declining economy, Rio de Janeiro is easing restrictions, despite expert warnings that the city has so far failed to control Covid-19.
As of Thursday, the reopening of restaurants, bars and gyms was allowed, following new health guidelines that required the use of masks and social distancing. On the first day, there were few customers on the boardwalk, although it was unclear whether it was due to the weather or the fear still very much present to the coronavirus, which according to the experts could not reach its peak in Brazil until mid-August.
But on June 2, Rio Mayor Marcelo Crivella announced a plan to gradually ease the restrictions, beginning with the reopening of car dealerships and home decor stores. Then came commerce, shopping malls, and some public spaces.
A month later, the death toll from Covid-19 rose 70% to 6,550 and the total number of infections in the city rose nearly 50% to 57,879, according to the Rio state health secretary. And although the number of deaths recorded in the second half of the month was slightly lower, 1,303 compared to 1,372, the number of new cases was 16% higher at 13,675.
Another city has regrets
But plans to reopen remain unchanged. Experts warn that Rio could follow in the footsteps of other Brazilian cities that moved too fast to reopen and ended up having to close again.
One of the first Brazilian state capitals to implement a quarantine, Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais, began reopening its economy in late May. But this week it ordered the closure of nonessential activities due to the increase in deaths and hospitalizations.
The fact that the virus spread as the restrictions relaxed in Rio was not a coincidence, according to Roberto Medronho, an epidemiologist at UFRJ and one of the creators of the “covidimeter,” a tool that calculates the transmission rate. On June 7, the capital had a transmission rate of 1.03. Three weeks later, the transmission rate was 1.46.
“This indicates that the decision to expand the reopening was based on economic and not scientific criteria,” Medronho told CNN.
Economists forecast a historic recession due to Covid-19. The Central Bank of Brazil estimated a fall of 6.4% in GDP for this year, while the International Monetary Fund is more pessimistic and sees that the economy will decrease 9.1% in 2020.
Crivella de Rio said her decisions were made after discussions with her scientific committee, which determined that gyms, bars and restaurants could reopen because the number of deaths had slowed down and the percentage of beds occupied in the ICU had also decreased.
At the beginning of June, 90% of the ICU beds in Rio were occupied. This week, the rate had dropped to 69%. However, experts say it should not be the only statistic used to make decisions.
“But there is a limit to this: Doctors are not as available as beds, and there is no way to increase this capacity indefinitely. Relying solely on ICU bed occupancy as the basis for reopening is a trick being used to calm the population. “
Alves said next week’s plans to open soccer games in the city to the public will only exacerbate the already delicate situation.
The city of Belo Horizonte also based its decision to reopen at the end of May on the occupation of beds in the ICU, a decision that Mayor Alexandre Kalil now regrets.
“What we are doing as a country is buying more beds. It was a mistake to think that this would solve it. Now we had to close again in Belo Horizonte because the cases skyrocketed. I see this drama as a war, and in a war, you change your strategy all the time, “Kalil said in an interview.
By the end of May, the number of hospital beds in Belo Horizonte had quadrupled since the start of the pandemic, and Kalil allowed retail stores and beauty salons to open.
Unlike Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte did not allow the reopening of shopping malls, churches and parks, but even so, in a month the cases increased from 1,852 to 4,942, and the number of deaths went from 49 to 106. At the beginning of This week, 92% of intensive care beds were occupied.
Kalil again imposed measures of social isolation on June 26. He said they will be kept for at least another two weeks.
“It cannot be said that everything is fine when the media reports that the death toll in the country has exceeded 60,000. In Belo Horizonte we are not from land. The closure or opening will depend on science and numbers,” he said.
Scientists from the Covid-19 Brazil group predict that cities that relax social distancing measures could see a 150% increase in the number of registered cases of Covid-19 in the next two weeks.
“Governors and mayors send the population to the slaughterhouse with the prerogative of an economic recovery,” said Domingos Alves.
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