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Almost all forecasting models now show a slight northern shift in our Nor’Ester storm track, forming a low pressure center in Cape May, NJ (instead of open water to the south and east). That’s a remarkable one Hot Solutions for us, pushing the rain-snow line to the far north during the peak of the hurricane on Wednesday evening.
Is wiggle No Reason to panic, skip the snow forecast dramatically, and / or call it a bust. Though. It only reinforces what I say with all of this: this is a very complex and track sensitive forecast, subject to approaching storms and the adjustment of wiggles and wobbles. Now it’s more of a “boom or bust”.
You will see that I have slightly reduced the average snowfall on my recent map – a step I had fully anticipated in the southern part of the state. Before releasing the final call forecast early Wednesday morning, I look closely at the trend of the next model cycle.
It is becoming a very different hurricane on the opposite end of the state. Still, no matter how the numbers run, it is still becoming a nasty storm with very erratic weather and road conditions, strong winds and coastal flooding. There will be travel headaches, especially during rush hour on Wednesday evenings and Thursday mornings. School and business will be closed. The electricity will end. The tide will flood.
I am also concerned that the weather conditions will spread faster than expected on the front side of the hurricane. Wednesday evening travel can be really opaque, as the type of early rain for most will be direct snow. And I changed the time of the peak effects a little earlier, from about seven o’clock at midnight.
North jersey (orange)
Yes, we still expect cold temperatures, double-digit snow averages, and significant one-third travel disruptions from the northern part of New Jersey. I added the snow back slightly, now showing 10+ inches instead of 12+. I’ve thought of putting a top bound of 14 “or 16” or even 18 “on that orange contour, but I’m more comfortable keeping it semi-obscure for now by tilting it towards the” half “lower end.
However, the shift to the north makes Even more Impossible to get 20+ inches of snow – I’ll miss you Never Buy that idea.
I am a little worried that the mixing line will flow as far north as the International 78 Corridor, it will cut the ice accumulation. That’s the biggest factor I see as soon as our final guide arrives.
Early snow in northern Jersey will arrive between 3 and 5 p.m. Wednesday. Sloppy, icy roads and low visibility can be a big problem during the evening rush hour. The fastest ice accumulation – the fastest glee glow – will come shortly after, during about 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. A few things will start to get really quiet before sunrise on Thursday (6am), the final flakes will drop by 10am.
Wind gusts of about 35 miles per hour are expected during the height of the hurricane.
Central and Southwest Jersey (Purple)
It is literally impossible to formulate a “complete” forecast here – to point out the average of such snow and ice is beyond the current science of meteorology. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the “boom or bust” zone, where there will be a very tight grad Admirable snow on the ground And Barely anything. Based on our latest forecast information, I’ve given you my best educated guess here.
There will be early rains in this area of battle Maybe Snow will fall between 1pm and 3pm, snow will continue to fall during the evening journey, with some accumulation, visibility will decrease, and the state of opal conditions. Then, after about 7 p.m., a rush of hot air will bring the transition to rain and / or slit. Light icing is likely. And before that some precious ice accumulation will be washed away. On the rear of the hurricane, a quick flip to the ice is a good bet, the final snowflakes should arrive by about 9 a.m. in the middle of Thursday, after about 3 p.m.
Wind gusts of about 40 miles per hour will be possible at the top of the storm. Moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Rareton Bay, Atlantic Ocean and backwaters and sub-rivers on Thursday morning. The Delaware River and Delaware Bay could experience minor coastal flooding.
South Jersey and the coast (green)
Well, I hope you like the rain. Because temperatures on the Jersey Shore have been rising well into the 40s, that’s what you’ll get.
There will be a narrow window here at the beginning and end of the storm system for windy mixing and ice. But the accumulation of ice will be much lighter, if nothing else. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected.
The first rain showers (and snowflakes) will move southwest on Wednesday between 1pm and 3pm. Roads look wet mainly for evening trips, although there may be some cut and slippery spots. Heavy rain develops after about 6pm on Wednesday, raising questions about visibility, traction and the lake. There may be a slight mix with snow or sleet, especially in the far north and west you are. With temperatures breaking down early Thursday morning, around 3 p.m., a transition to all snow is possible. (Although not guaranteed.) With such wet ground, accumulation will be very difficult. The final drops and fragments are expected to come out of the shore around 10 a.m. Thursday.
Wind gusts are possible from the peak of hurricane intensity on Wednesday evening, especially along the immediate coastline. That fierce wind would flood the Jersey Shore, about 2 feet above the storm. Extensive moderate flooding is expected on tidal waterways during the high tide cycle on Thursday morning.
Less than 24 hours to go …
Hopefully it gives you an understanding of where the present stands. The next weather blog update will be published early Wednesday morning, including the final call for snow averages, timelines and effects by about 7 p.m.
Dan Zaro T Town is the chief meteorologist at Nasquare Media New Jersey. Follow him Facebook or Twitter For the latest forecasts and real time weather updates.
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